Horseshoes and hand grenades

As noted in the previous post, since 2002 Georgia is 13-10 in one score conference regular season games, which isn’t bad, but is certainly a lower winning percentage than the overall one during Richt’s tenure.

Curiosity has gotten the better of me, so I went back over the records from ’02 forward to see if there was any pattern to Georgia’s play in these types of games. It turns out there are a few.

First, here’s the list of the games:

  • 2007: USC (L); Alabama (W); Vanderbilt (W)
  • 2006: Mississippi (W); Vanderbilt (L); MSU (W); Florida (L); Kentucky (L)
  • 2005: USC (W); Arkansas (W); Florida (L); Auburn (L)
  • 2004: USC (W); Tennessee (L); Arkansas (W); Florida (W)
  • 2003: LSU (L); Florida (L)
  • 2002: USC (W); Alabama (W); Tennessee (W); Florida (L); Auburn (W)

When you break it down, here’s some of the patterns you get in these close games:

  • Against ranked opponents: 2-7
  • Against unranked opponents: 11-3
  • When Georgia scores less than 20 points: 4-7
  • When Georgia scores 20 or more points: 9-3
  • Home games: 4-4
  • Road games: 8-2
  • Florida: 1-4

Interestingly enough, that notable difference in record depending on whether the Dawgs broke the 20 point mark in a game isn’t reflected in a similar way on the defensive side. Georgia was 7-5 in these games when it held the opponent to less than 20 points; it was 6-5 in the remaining games.

I know a win’s a win and all that. But that road record is an amazing stat.

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3 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

3 responses to “Horseshoes and hand grenades

  1. Joe

    I believe the most pertinent stat in all those games is Missed FG’s. We have consistently had the best kicker in the SEC under CMR, but Bennett, Andy Bailey and Coutu have missed FG’s in nearly every one of our losses.

    Of course, if we had been scoring TD’s instead of settling for FG’s in the red-zone, it would be a moot issue.

  2. Joe

    Actually, here are the stats on the missed FG’s in the games we lost…

    2006, Vandy, 3/4 FG’s
    2006, UK, 0-2 FG’s, 1 missed XP
    2005, UF, 1-3 FG’s
    2004, UT, 0-1 FG’s
    2003, LSU, 1-4 FG’s
    2003, UF, 2-3 FG’s
    2002, UF, 2-4 FG’s

    Against Scu 2007, AU 2005 and WVU ’05, we went 7-7 FG’s with no attempts against WVU.

    So, even if you include the ’07 Scu, 05 Au and ’05 WVU losses, our FG % for all the losses is 57%. I believe that Coutu and Bennett both finished their careers at well over 70%.

    I would say that Mr. Walsh needs to come up big in big games for us to win the SEC this year.

  3. UgaMatt

    It’s strange. I’d say in those loses not only was there the unholy theme of missed FG’s and dropped passes, but also just a certain quirkiness about those games:
    ’02 Terrence drops a W I D E open tying touchdown, Bennett lets Florida get in his head by jawing with them at halftime, then misses 2 FGs, the foster dry humping episode, and also the Sean Jones/Pollack-would-be-int-runback if either of them had just blocked the only gator with a chance to make the play. Also, I seem to remember us having a tough time against the bubble screen.
    ’03 LSU: multiple dropped passes early kept us from blowing it open and forcing LSU to get away from running the ball, 3 missed FG’s, and a blatant no call on a block in the back that set LSU up at the 50 on the game winning drive.
    ’03 Florida: Freddie drops at least 3 passes; despite ripping off 6 yards a carry, CMR elects to pass to the friggin’ FB on 3rd and goal from the 2 and then kick the tying FG instead of going for the win and pounding it twice.
    ’04 Tenn: A Greenie to Reggie TD misses by inches out of the endzone. A KO return for a TD is called back on a questionable holding call by Pope. Andy Bailey misses a FG.
    ’05 Florida: Shockley doesn’t play. That pretty much sums this one up. Coutu does miss 2 FG’s, including(if I remember correctly) a 58 yarder that hit the upright 2/3s of the way up. Despite the most conservative game plan in history, we still had a shot, but McClendon dropped a huge pass on our last drive.
    ’05 Auburn: 4th and 10.
    ’06 Vandy: Dropped passes, missed FG’s, but this one is more on the D for not being able to stop Vandy on that last drive.
    ’06 Florida: Milner drops 3 passes, the Lumpkin fumble, a friggin’ punt hits us in the back of the foot, and Quentin’s face mask call.
    ’06 Kentucky: Kicking killed us, but just like Vandy, the D couldn’t get a stop when they needed too. Also, I think I remember us trying to pass from like the 1 instead of pounding it in and getting it picked off right before the half.
    ’07 SC: Coutu missed one FG, but it wouldn’t have been the difference. Dropped passes hurt, especially Wilson’s in the endzone, and I swear I thought I heard a whistle too on Cooked Crack’s TD, but this one was mostly youth.