Steele and the schedule

Phil Steele has posted a fun but essentially meaningless exercise over at his site.  He’s ranked D-1 schools’ 2008 schedules based on their opponents 2007 won-loss records.

Georgia ranks #1 on his list.  The schools Georgia will play in ’08 went 98-57 last season.  Ten had winning records.  No other school in the country matches that.

Of course, that was last year.  It’s probably worth filtering that through Steele’s list of returning starters to begin with.  Here are the numbers on that for Georgia’s ’08 D-1 opponents (kicker means place kicker and/or punter):

  • Central Michigan – 8 offense (w. QB); 8 defense; 1 kicker
  • South Carolina – 5 offense; 10 defense; 2 kickers
  • Arizona State – 7 offense (w. QB); 7 defense; 2 kickers
  • Alabama – 8 offense (w. QB); 8 defense; 2 kickers
  • Tennessee – 8 offense; 7 defense; 2 kickers
  • Vanderbilt – 4 offense (w. QB); 6 defense; 2 kickers
  • LSU – 5 offense; 5 defense; 1 kicker
  • Florida – 7 offense; 8 defense; 1 kicker
  • Kentucky – 4 offense; 8 defense; 2 kickers
  • Auburn – 8 offense; 6 defense; 2 kickers
  • Georgia Tech – 7 offense; 5 defense; 0 kickers

Some of Steele’s numbers are off, as is the case with Georgia Tech, and, of course, just because a starter is returning, doesn’t mean he’ll necessarily hang on to his status.  But it’s worth noting that most of the teams Georgia will face this season bring back at least half of their starting group from ’07.

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7 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, Phil Steele Makes My Eyes Water

7 responses to “Steele and the schedule

  1. Thomas Brown

    I don’t know how meaningless it is that our football program plays 10 teams who had a winning record last year, or that we also face teams who had 98 wins last year. Our schedule strength last year was ranked Number 7 by the NCAA SoS, including post season and bowl opponent.

    For example, take a look at Southern California you defend ? The NCAA said their schedule strength last season was Number 73. Southern California faces only 6 teams this up-coming season who posted a winning record last year. Note, if you will, that Southern California also does not have to face any Pac-10 team in a Pac-10 “conference” championship game as many think UGA will this season. And, please note that the teams Southern California faces this season are not Number 1 at wins last year like UGA either, but Number 48.

    Note also, that The SEC has 6 of the Top 7 toughest schedules. SEC teams make up 8 of the top 14 toughest schedules, at your URL Link.

    What better measure on May 20th is there of what teams possibly face tough or easy schedules again ? You don’t address that.

    Pac-10 teams make up only 3 of the top 14 toughest schedules, according to Phil Steele – who has proven he knows what he is talking about.

    3 Pac-10 8 SEC teams of the top 14 toughest schedules 2008, not counting post season (which the Pac-10 doesn’t have) and not counting bowl games.

    1 Big 10 team of the top 14 toughest schedules.

    2 Big XII teams of the top 14 toughest schedules and please note neither is Oklahoma or Texas, again.

    UGA was given the least credit this time last year of every preseason consensus top 25 ranked team, although Missouri, Kansas, Boston College and BYU were not consensus top 25 football teams last season who instead ended up higher than what they were predicted because they were not predicted to be in the top 25. UGA was picked to be Number 14 in the preseason, but ended up Number 2 in the nation in the AP Polls – so, UGA was the most underrated team of the top 25 preseason ranked teams.

    That will not be the case this up-coming season, because UGA will be the consensus top 2 or top 3 team in the nation preseason.

  2. Xon

    Steele is wierd on SoS, though. When his actual numbers for this upcoming season come out in his magazine (iow, not just these 07 record-based numbers), he’ll probably end up putting 9 Pac10 teams in the top 10 like he has the last three years. He’s really really weird the way he does Schedule strength. All the teams in a conf will cluster together, (which makes some sense, given they all play each ohter), and he LOVES the Pac10 in this particular metric. I’ve never gotten his reasoning on this.

    I’m a Steele fan, though, don’t get me wrong. His analysis of schedules puzzle me, is all.

  3. He’s not the only one. Most of the computer gurus wind up in the same place as Steele on SOS and the Pac-10.

    You can check my archives, but I had a pretty good discussion going on about the Pac-10’s SOS with the guys at Saurian Sagacity.

    I think a large part of it has to do with the fact that its schools play nine conference games, so there’s less opportunity to clutter up their schedules with games against non-BCS/1-AA conference opponents.

    The other part of the pattern that’s interesting is that the SOS numbers tend to tighten up at the end of the season – probably because some conferences have championship games (not the Pac-10) and because of bowl matchups.

  4. Thomas Brown

    What Xon is saying Bluto, is that he does not feel that the Pac-10 is all that great. Playing 9 conference games against a lousy 1-team conference, does not make you a stronger conference.

    To begin with, no one attends Pac-10 games and with their games so late for the entire nation, even fewer watch their crappy games.

    LSU was Number 1 last season in the Final AP Poll, Georgia was Number 2, Tennessee Number 12, Florida Number 13 and Auburn Number 15, while all the Pac-10 could muster by direct comparison was their 1 team Southern California worse ranked than two (2) SEC teams. There are no other Pac-10 teams ranked at the top of the rankings with the 5 SEC in the Top 15.

    Georgia will play all those teams next season. And, Georgia plays the 2nd best Pac-10 team in a 1-team conference Arizona State, who is not as good a team as five (5) SEC teams ranked ahead of them according to the Final AP Poll. The same is true of every other poll too. Every poll. So, I don’t know what you mean by saying that most computer gurus rank the Pac-10 at the top of the rankings. This is not true.

    The SoS therefore of the Pac-10 does not begin to measure up with the SoS of Georgia. Not last year and not this season up-coming either.

    If the Top teams in either the Pac-10 or the Big 10 wanted to begin to approximate the SoS of UGA for example last season or this up-coming season, they would clearly have to have a conference championship game where the top teams play at the end of the season to make it appear as though neither league is what they both are, 1 team leagues.

    But, they don’t want to. They want to be have 1 less loss. Not 1 more loss. This is because it is 100 percent agreed upon by everyone that there is no conference that begins to challenge the fact that The SEC is the toughest conference. And, has been.

    I called Phil Steele and he is sending out his 2008 analysis June 7th.

    What Phil Steele has said in this report is that the Pac-10 has 3 teams in the Top 15 Strength of Schedules this up-coming season, while again note please Phil Steele has 8 SEC Teams in the Top 15 SoS for 2008.

    And, note please Bluto that Southern California is NOT one of the 3 Pac-10 toughest schedules for the up-coming season either. Instead, Southern California is Number 48 toughest schedule next season. I still see no answer as to what you believe to be a better measure May 21st than what the teams did last year to determine SoS May 21st ?

    I guess you will duck that a 3rd time ?

    UGA plays Georgia Southern, what you keep calling 1-AA which is a Bowl Championship Division 1 team who beat Appalachian State after they beat Michigan. Georgia still has the Number 1 Toughest Schedule in the Nation according to Phil Steele this up-coming season, even with every 4 years the NCAA allowing us to play one Bowl Championship Division 1 team.

    Georgia, also Bluto, will play 9 games against SEC teams next season if we make it to the SEC Championship Game, as we had done 4 of the previous 5 years before last season being left out because we disregard the fact that UGA was the Top Ranked Team in the nation of all SEC teams prior to the Pick of who should play for the East as Co-SEC East Champions. Instead we picked the team ranked Number 14 instead of the team ranked Number 4 to play the team ranked Number 6. The whole entire purpose of the SEC Championship Game is to give the boost to the Winner to be in the mix for the BCS MNC Game berth – which it did anyway to LSU. But, it would not have been any question had LSU beat UGA Number 6 beating Number 4. Never mind the fact that I felt like UGA would have slaughtered Ohio State as well, and that UGA might well have beat LSU. Anyone who watched that game realized that on that day, UGA would have clearly won. Hells bells, the vols nearly did and should have. The vols end up Number 12 and UGA Number 2. Who had the better season ? Who had fewer losses against SEC competition ? Who did better against a tougher schedule ? Who had the better season ? Who is better ?

    You throw in the Georgia Tech game with Arizona State and Central Michigan is certainly a very good team too who Won 9 Games including beating Purdue of the Big 10 in their Bowl Game and this schedule including Bowl Championship Division Georgia Southern who beat Appalachian State after they beat Michigan, and UGA has not one damn thing to hang its head about our Strength of Damn Schedule compared to Southern Bloody California in the 1-team “conference” Pac-10.

    Not with us playing 9 Conference Games against the likes of probably twice playing LSU neither of which will be at Home, Alabama, at South Carolina’s Steve Spurrier, Florida on the road, at Kentucky, at Auburn, and the vols – and, you come in here propagating this B.S. that most of the computer gurus say the Pac-10 strength of schedules are better tougher because they play 9 conference games. Total B.S.

    Southern California’s SoS is Number 48.
    Stanford’s SoS is Number 48.
    Oregon’s SoS is Number 53.
    Arizona State’s SoS is Number 57.
    Arizona’s SoS is Number 59.
    California’s SoS is Number 64.
    Washington State’s SoS is Number 40.

    This does NOT compare to The SEC with 8 of the Top 15 SoS being SEC Teams. And, the 3 lousy Pac-10 teams with SoS in the Top 15 does NOT compare with the 8 SEC Teams in the Top 15. Nor does the Pac-10 one-team conference compare with the 9 SEC Teams in the Top 25 SoS at your URL Link you provide to discuss here Bluto.

    Not with the Pac-10 having not 9 Top 25 SoS like The SEC but 3 Pac-10 and NOT Southern California their lone 1-team conference. 7 of the Pac-10 are six from Number 48 to Number 60 SoS and 1 at Number 40 SoS.

    There is no difference with SoS last season these Pac-10 teams played either, with their damn 9 conference games.

    http://web1.ncaa.org/d1mfb/Internet/toughest%20schedule/ia_9games_cumm.pdf

    Get over it.

    Like Xon says Bluto, the Pac-10 does NOT play the SoS of The SEC teams. Especially NOT their lone 1-team conference team Southern California.

    Last season as well, 7 of the Top 14 SoS again last year too were SEC Teams – including UGA. And, there were a grand total of 1 Pac-10 in the Top 14 SoS last season by direct comparison.

    And, Southern California last season too was Number 73, not Number 7 of UGA.

    The facts of the matter are, when the conference championship games are played by those conferences who are made up of teams who are NOT afraid to lose a game against the 2nd best team of all the teams in the conference at the end of the season, and when the bowl games are played The SEC Won the Most of – especially of the Top Tier Bowl Games – The SEC ends up with the Most Teams Ranked in the Top 25 of the nation.

    That’s last year, every year and next year too.

    Not the Pac-10.

    This is Xon’s point Bluto.

    You come off like you are agreeing with Xon, and nothing is further from the truth. You do not agree with Xon on the Pac-10. You do not agree with the NCAA Official SoS. You do not agree with the Final AP Polls. You do not agree with the USA Today Coaches’ Poll. You do not agree with any of the Final BCS Computer Polls. You don’t agree with any of these.

    What you agree with is the worst attendance of any conference in America compared to The SEC at the top Pac-10 is somehow a great football conference. And, you especially do not agree with the results of the Bowl Games you bring up at all.

    Somehow a great football conference playing cupcake creampuff powder-puff football schedules year after year after year after year after year after year that the Pac-10 plays.

    Somehow a great football conference Xon and I disagree with you on totally Bluto.

    http://www.nationalchamps.net/NCAA/past_AP_Polls.htm

    If the Pac-10 were any good whatsoever, they would compare to The SEC in SoS, top-ranked teams, Bowl Wins, and have more than 1 team in their damn Land of Fruit and Nuts 1-Team “conference.”

    The Pac-10 is not nearly the Conference The SEC is, according to everyone but you.

  5. I called Phil Steele and he is sending out his 2008 analysis June 7th.

    Thanks for finding that out. I’ve got my calendar marked.

  6. Thomas Brown

    I’m sure you have never purchased a Phil Steele College Football Preview.

  7. You don’t know me, Thomas. You just think you know me. ;)