Daily Archives: June 17, 2008

Stafford, completion percentage, efficiency, etc.

Sunday Morning Quarterback has some nice things to say about Matthew Stafford in this post today:

Matt Stafford, Georgia: Up from 109.0 to 128.9 (+19.9); jury’s still out, obviously, but Stafford “got it” toward the end of his freshman year, when he stopped throwing game-killing interceptions and led low-scoring wins over three straight ranked teams (Auburn, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech). Given his progression so far, his initial recruiting hype and the drooling of the scouts, should be sitting on a very strong season. Even if he doesn’t throw for a lot of yards in a run-oriented system, the efficiency could be through the roof. All projections are extremely positive.

I intend to explore this more in an upcoming post, but I keep wondering the degree to which Stafford’s completion percentage/efficiency rating is important, not so much in regard to his personal legacy, but rather in the context of Georgia’s offensive scheme. I don’t give it as much weight it as others do, but I have to admit that it seems key to many, including his coaches, who want to see his completion percentage in the 60% range this season.

Anybody else have some thoughts about this?

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UPDATE: Groo riffs on my question with some good stuff here.

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Filed under Georgia Football, The Blogosphere

The Quad looks at #73 Georgia Tech.

Evidently it’s Georgia Tech day (I swear I didn’t get the memo). Here’s the preseason analysis from the NYT’s blog The Quad.

Sign of trouble (from the “Key Losses” section):

… Bell was 23-28 in field goal attempts as a senior, scoring a team-leading 108 total points. Brooks, the only punter taken in the draft, was a first-team all-American as a senior. He leaves with the highest career punting average in A.C.C. history.

It’s one thing when you’re really strong on offense and defense and have to break in a new place kicker or punter. But when you’re reinventing the wheel on offense and only have eight returning starters, those kind of special team losses tend to get magnified.

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Filed under Georgia Tech Football, Media Punditry/Foibles

Too good to be true.

Genius manifests itself in many forms.

For Bobby Petrino, it was being able to read the defense defending the pitch option as an elementary schooler.

He was matter-of-fact when asked if he was truly reading the option as a pre-teen. “Certainly,” he said.

Of course, you may want to take Harry King’s Petrino worship with a grain of salt after reading this amazing statement.

… He mentioned the success of triple option teams Navy and Air Force and said he was interested in how former Navy coach Paul Johnson would do at Georgia Tech. Johnson, 45-29 in six years at Navy, says the Midshipmen played more than 30 schools from Bowl Championship Series conferences. “If it worked at Navy, why wouldn’t it work here?” he said.

Johnson might have to go with freshman Reggie Ball at quarterback; Petrino has Casey Dick, a senior in eligibility, but a freshman in the offense. [Emphasis added.]

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Filed under Arkansas Is Kind Of A Big Deal, Media Punditry/Foibles

Paul Johnson goes local.

You may not have noticed, but Georgia Tech’s in-state recruiting has picked up under Paul Johnson.

The Jackets already have as many players committed from the state of Georgia — eight — as they had sign national letters of intent in February. Ten of the 18 players in Tech’s 2008 recruiting class were from out of state.

Given the limits on the size of Georgia’s 2009 class, this makes plenty of sense and is further confirmation that Johnson is going to prove to be a more formidable head coach at Tech than his predecessor.

He’s not getting warm bodies, either.

“The in-state kids, I really like the way they’re going,” said Rivals.com analyst Barry Ever. “They have six in-state kids who are three stars or better.”

Defensive linemen J.C. Lanier and John Drew, who committed to Tech months ago, are ranked four-star players by Rivals. Finch and Drummond are not yet ranked.

The recruiting analyst quoted in the article has an interesting point about Johnson’s focus on local talent:

“… But the in-state kids are important, especially in a state with so many players.”

“Johnson has seen the state of Georgia and the East Coast, and it’s not surprising that he should start getting them. If you don’t have the in-state kids, I don’t think the Georgia-Georgia Tech game means as much to players.[Emphasis added.]

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Filed under Georgia Tech Football, Recruiting

Turning of the Tide?

Over at MrSEC.com, John Pennington makes a point about SEC recruiting that isn’t exactly earthshattering to most of us, but is of interest.

… The top five teams in recruiting from 2003 to 2007 just happened to be the only five teams in the SEC last year to post winning conference records.

Divide the conference into fourths and the recruiting rankings become even more telling.

Teams one through four in recruiting (Florida, Georgia, LSU and Tennessee) combined to post a 24-10 record in conference play. That’s a winning percentage of .705.

The teams ranked five through eight in recruiting (Auburn, South Carolina, Alabama and Arkansas) combined to finish 16-16 in conference play. That’s a .500 winning percentage.

And the teams that ranked nine through 12 in recruiting (Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Kentucky and Vanderbilt) finished 9-25 in league play. That’s a winning percentage of only .264.

The top four in recruiting won 75% of their games, the middle four in recruiting won 50% of their games and the bottom four in recruiting won just 25% of their games.

Again, finishing third or fourth in Rivals’ or Scout’s rankings in a given year isn’t nearly as important as finishing in the top ten consistently.

Based on that, it will be interesting to watch Alabama and Tennessee this year, as the former under Saban has moved into the top four in recruiting in the conference and the latter has dropped out of the top four.

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Filed under Recruiting, SEC Football, The Blogosphere