Inside the numbers: first look at Georgia-Auburn

I still stand by my general statement that the rest of Georgia’s season will be defined by whether the offense shows up to play for each game.  If it does, I don’t think either Auburn or Tech has enough firepower on offense to keep up with Stafford, Moreno and the receivers.

That being said, I thought I’d peruse the current SEC stats to see if they shed any further light on what we might expect on the Plains this Saturday.

What Auburn does well – honestly, not much that really jumps out at you.

  • fourth in scoring defense
  • fourth in pass defense
  • first in kickoff returns (gah!)
  • first in net punting
  • fourth in sacks
  • second in opponent third down conversions
  • third in red zone defense

And, remember, on that third down conversion thing, at one point in time the Tigers led the country with some obscene percentage.  They’re at almost 28% now, which is still very good, but clearly the trend is running against that of late.

What Auburn does poorly – same deal, not that much jumps out here, either.

  • tenth in scoring offense
  • ninth in rushing defense
  • ninth in passing offense (Tony Franklin, we hardly knew ye)
  • ninth in field goals
  • ninth in third down conversions
  • ninth in turnover margin
  • last in red zone offense

When you look at Auburn’s stats as a whole, they scream mediocrity.  It’s no surprise that the Tigers are 5-5 right now.  But you know what?  The SEC team closest to Auburn’s statistical picture is Kentucky (although Sagarin ranks UK’s strength of schedule as somewhat stronger than Auburn’s), and we saw how well that worked out last weekend.

Georgia should be able to move the ball on these guys and I’d look for Moreno to do well against that run defense.  Auburn obviously is not a particularly strong offensive team and so presents an opportunity for the Georgia defense to begin to get its bearings again.  Auburn gets bogged down in the red zone more frequently than does Georgia and its field goal percentage is also worse, so expect a healthy dose of bend but don’t break in the defensive scheme from Martinez.  As far as special teams, there’s enough there to make me a little nervous, particularly with regard to kickoff returns.

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10 Comments

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10 responses to “Inside the numbers: first look at Georgia-Auburn

  1. truck

    While I appreciate your warning to “expect a healthy dose of bend but don’t break in the defensive scheme” this weekend, I don’t expect any less whining from our fans after the game is over.

    With the Aubbies’ past habit of wrenching our hearts out, I can truthfully say I will be satisfied with a one-point Dawg victory. How does 3-2 sound?

  2. dean

    What has me worried is Tubbs hasn’t pulled one of his trademark upsets this year. Hopefully he’s saving it for Alabama. However the tigers or war eagles or plainsmen or whatever (just decide on a damn team mascot already) really have nothing to lose so I would expect to see some wrinkles that Auburn hasn’t used yet. Tubberears is (likely) coaching for his job, which tends to motivate people. Plus the players are still a little ticked about that whole “Soulja boy” thing last year and want revenge. The last game we played where the other team wanted revenge didn’t turn out to well.

    Here’s to hoping the players only meeting works for the defense and the offense shows up. Oh and it probably wouldn’t hurt for the special teams to make a cameo either.

  3. mykiesee

    Well, my opinion may differ from a lot of recent ones but I think after hearing everyone basically trash our defense this week, I believe the defense is going to come out and really start trying to hurt people on the Auburn offense.

    This may be the first game all year where you see the true potential of the Dawg defense that should have been.

    Then again, that’s just my opinion – I could be wrong.

  4. Christian

    mykiesee – that would be wonderful to see this week as I – like Dean – fear that Ears has an upset in him and there is only two candidates for such an occurrence.

    If the O can continue the efficiency and execution from last week, I feel confident that we can score enough to win. If the D plays better, then it can be comfortably.

    Go Dawgs!!

  5. Will Q

    I hope that, much more than being annoyed by what the press and fans have been saying about them, the players will pay more attention to the “not-had-30+-hung-on-them-three-times-in-a-row” thing and focus on making up for that deficiency.

  6. Heyberto

    Not to hijack the topic, but has anyone else noticed the heavy moderating going on in Terrence Moore’s threads at AJC? I sent a response agreeing with his thread about GT, but asked why he couldn’t give Georgia similar slack as he suggests GT should be given… didn’t make it through the censors. I think its interesting how he’s being protected over there by his parent. They obviously know how bad it is, but don’t want to fire him. Anyway, I know he’s a columnist and rendering his opionion, but the fact that a newspaper is witholding opinions in response doesn’t seem like journalistic integrity. Not that I’m surprised.. it’s the AJC after all. Sorry to interrupt… just had to share.. might be old news.

  7. You actually try to comment there? Man, I get a hard time here just for admitting that I occasionally read his posts. ;)

  8. Ally

    “I believe the defense is going to come out and really start trying to hurt people on the Auburn offense.”

    From your mouth to God’s ears, mykiesee. After hearing about the Defense Players’ Team Meeting on Monday, I feel the same way. I hope somebody emerges as the new Tra Battle for this game.

    Wonder if Brandon Cox will be in the stands. If so, somebody needs to get that kid a Georgia “G” letterman patch.

  9. Heyberto

    I like to rip on him. I’ve never done anything inappropriate, so its not like my posts are saying anything that would keep them from being posted on any other feedback spot. I just call him out on all the crap he says, not that he’ll ever listen. Look how few posts there are on his latest column… I guess that shows how many posts he gets through. Just the jackets kissing his butt for coming to their defense.

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