What’s in your wallet? First thought on Cap One Bowl

I’ll try to get into a little more depth as the game approaches, but for a start, here’s the stat that jumps out at me:

  • Michigan State (#37 SOS per Sagarin) – 5.1 yards per play on offense; 5.3 yards per play on defense, for a net minus 0.2 ypp
  • Georgia (#14 SOS per Sagarin) – 6.8 yards per play on offense; 5.1 yards per play on defense, for a net plus 1.7 ypp.

Just to give you some context, Georgia beat four teams this season which managed not to give up more yards per play than they gained.  Those teams are Arizona State, Tennessee, LSU and South Carolina.

That’s no guarantee of success, of course.  But it’s a pretty good indication that Sparty isn’t anything special, either.

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5 Comments

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5 responses to “What’s in your wallet? First thought on Cap One Bowl

  1. I’m not an impartial observer or anything, but MSU is not an especially good team. Look at them this way: they were utterly destroyed by Penn State and Ohio State and they trailed Cal for pretty much the entire game. They won six games comfortably. They won all three close games they played: Iowa, Michigan, and Wisconsin. They’re a 7-8 win team masquerading as a nine-win team (not unlike the Falcons, a 9-10 win team masquerading as an 11-win team). They’re in this game because the Big Ten was a two-team league this year and those two teams are in BCS games.

    Additionally, MSU plays the boring, conventional Big Ten style of running from heavy formations and then playaction passing, only they have mediocre receivers. Dantonio learned from Tressel. That style is fine against opponents with inferior talent, but it doesn’t work against opponents with similar or greater talent. (See: Tressel vs. SEC teams.) Dantonio is a pretty good defensive coach, but he doesn’t have the talent to be above-average on that side of the ball. MSU’s incoming recruiting class is good, but that won’t concern you.

    I didn’t know that MSU was outgained on a per-play basis. That’s a pretty strong indictment.

  2. One other thought: MSU’s conventional style will not put pressure on Georgia’s weak defensive ends. This is another reason why this is a good matchup for the Dawgs.

  3. Macallanlover

    I agree the matchup seems to favor UGA heavily and expect the Dawgs to win soundly. I am curious about this method of analyzing a game. Anyone have any experience with net yards per play as a predictor? It may be a stat where you have to “filter” out the games which distort the legitimacy of the comparison.

  4. Macallanlover

    Thanks, I will follow his predictions.