A little win total talk

If you want to have some fun this morning, Jerry Hinnen has linked to this post at an FSU blog which lists a bunch of over/under numbers for regular season win totals this year that’s worth a peek.

There are eight SEC schools listed (I tried to find the rest, but was unable to), along with where Vegas breaks the wins:

  • Alabama, 9.5
  • Auburn, 7.5
  • Florida, 11
  • Georgia, 8.5
  • LSU, 8.5
  • Mississippi, 9
  • South Carolina, 7
  • Tennessee, 7

First of all, looking at that, if Chizik winds up winning more games than Junior this year, there are going to be a lot of people laughing their asses off at season’s end.

Anyway, the fun part is handicapping the handicappers.  Jerry gives it his very good shot here.  It’s a fun read and makes you focus on the schedule to see where those wins are going to be squeezed from.  Of course, you still have to factor the impact of injuries and historical trends into the mix.

So what do I think?  I think Jerry’s right about that South Carolina bet.  I don’t think that as much will go right on offense as the ‘Cocks hope and that schedule is rough.  I’m a little more hesitant about the ‘Bama bet, simply because Saban’s never coached back to back seasons with double digit wins before.  If the Tide doesn’t beat Virginia Tech, I don’t see it happening this time around.  Jerry’s probably right about Ole Miss, but I remember that the exact same things were being predicted for the Nuttster’s last team at Arky, and all it took was one Marcus Monk injury to blow that up.

As for Georgia, the Dawgs haven’t won as few as eight games since Richt’s first season and assuming the injury issues that plagued the team last season are truly a thing of the past, I don’t see it happening this year.  The game at Arkansas is most likely the dividing line.  I’ve seen a lot of pundits point to that game as a likely upset, but unless the Hogs improve dramatically on defense and special teams this year (and when has a Petrino-coached team been that good on defense?), I’m not seeing it.

What do y’all think?

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7 Comments

Filed under SEC Football, The Blogosphere

7 responses to “A little win total talk

  1. GreenvilleDawg

    We need to get off to a fast start and be undefeated in September. Our schedule is tough but everyone we play ’til the Florida game will be very wary of us. Hopefully, our defensive depth will carry us through early. GATA

  2. I think we will all feel a little better about the Arkansas game after Petrino resigns for a new job.

    The only two gmes I feel real good about are ASU and TTech. We cannot spot teams 30 minutes of football and we must tackle to the ground or it could get ugly. However, I trust CMR and staff will have the team ready and we will shock a lot of people this year. So many similarities to 2005.

  3. dawgfish

    I would emphasize your point that less than 8.5 wins would match literally the worst year of the Richt era. I assume that this prediction has more to do with the schedule, and isn’t an indication that those in Vegas really believe this is the worst team of the Richt era.

  4. Jferg in NC

    I, for one, refuse to drink the ‘Ole Miss koolaid. They are junk…and are absolutely NOT a top 10 team. We’ve proven that a good QB with a subpar OL is not a recipe for success.
    No way they win more than nine. Maybe get their ninth as a bowl win…..maybe. My guesses are….

    Dawgs cover
    LSU covers
    UF covers
    Bammer covers
    Miss does NOT cover
    Aub does NOT cover
    SC does NOT cover
    UT does NOT cover

    • I’m with you on Ole Miss. Let’s see how they compare to the pre-season 2008 Georgia Bulldogs:

      (1) potential 1st round QB – Check
      (2) several other offensive playmakers – Check
      (3) Lost best OL and DL – Check
      (4) Went on winning streak previous season culminating in absolute beatdown of highly ranked team from out West – Check

      I’m very bearish on the Rebels of Ole Miss.

    • Carruthers

      Hotty Toddy! I’m buying in, haha.

  5. HamDawg11

    I really like the makeup of this team as far as the strength up front on both sides of the ball. Cox should be capable of leading the offense and getting us the points to keep us competitive, but I’m afraid the schedule is just too tough to expect 10 wins. There are so many games that could go either way, I just don’t see us winning the majority of those…but I’m hopin’ and prayin’!

    GO DAWGS!!