With the dust settling on the BCS selections for this year, the big story outside of the title game is the Fiesta Bowl. The first-ever voluntary selection of a non-BCS conference school is newsworthy in and of itself, but the pairing of two mid-majors in a BCS game, while justified from a record standpoint, is more than a bit risky in terms of economics.
… The two teams also played last year in the Poinsettia Bowl, drawing a 3.7 rating. There were 14 bowl games rated higher. (T.C.U. won, 34,628 people attended…
What makes this especially of interest is the does-Texas-deserve-to-play-in-the-title-game angle that ESPN tried so hard to stoke during its BCS selection special last night. While I expect that narrative to be harped on regularly over the next month – and intensify if Alabama smokes Texas in the title game – it’s to the credit of coaches Patterson, Kelly and Petersen that they all rejected it last night in their respective interviews on the WWL. I think they did so for two reasons:
- The impact of Texas’ near death experience against Nebraska is overrated. Every undefeated team has had at least one close call this season. There was a certain amount of irony in hearing Rece Davis quiz Cinci’s Brian Kelly about whether Texas should play in the title game, given Kelly’s team’s last-minute win over a Pittsburgh squad that lost because its holder couldn’t get an extra point snap down properly.
- The real reason that Texas is playing Alabama and TCU or Cincinnati isn’t is the preseason polls. Texas started number two and never relinquished its position. TCU began the season seventeenth; Cincinnati wasn’t ranked at all. That’s not going to be the case next year. If things break right, we’re likely to see a mid-major finish second in the final polls, which would be unprecedented. If that mid-major is TCU, it’s going to be ranked in the top five in the 2010 preseason polls. Should Boise State win, it’ll be top five – and next year will play Oregon State and Virginia Tech. If Cincinnati beats Florida, the Bearcats will get a similar bounce in the polls. All of that adds up next season to the most credible opportunity a non-traditional school (remember that Cincinnati is only five years removed from Conference USA) has ever had to be in the BCS title hunt.
If you’re wondering why Gary Patterson took that contract extension at TCU, in effect taking himself out of the Notre Dame sweepstakes before they even got started, it’s because he thinks he’s got a better chance to play in the big game where he’s at than coming out of South Bend. It’ll be interesting to see if Brian Kelly comes to the same conclusion.
The other interesting thing to watch is the business side of the Fiesta Bowl’s call. The Mountain West’s commissioner can whine all he likes about how TCU being in the BCS isn’t good enough, but it’s put up or shut up time on the fan support. The game is likely to get a good deal of attention in the media. If that doesn’t translate into asses in the seats and eyes on the TV, don’t expect that to be forgotten in the fairness debate, no matter how competitive a show the Fiesta Bowl winds up giving us.
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UPDATE: Dan Shanoff shares some Fiesta Bowl-related thoughts in this post.