Daily Archives: April 27, 2010

It’s the end of the (bowl) world as we know it.

This will probably be the only time I express this sentiment at GTP, but Roy Kramer’s right about this:

I decided a long time ago that I wasn’t going to rail about the number of bowl games that are played. Former SEC commissioner Roy Kramer once told me that if two conferences and one community decide they want to have a bowl game, then more power to them. Nobody compels us to watch.

Ain’t that the truth.  They’re friggin’ exhibition matches.  They exist to offer something to watch on a cold winter’s night in mid-December when you’re jonesing for college football.

So, I know I’m in the minority on this, but I don’t get the concern over the possibility that a school with a losing record may get to play occasionally in an obscure bowl game.

But with 35 bowls approved for the 2010 season, the math does not look good. It means that 70 of 120 teams in Division I-A will participate in a bowl game. Last year 71 teams finished 6-6 or better. That’s cutting it pretty close. The rules say you have to be 6-6 or better in order to qualify for a bowl. There have been reports that the NCAA is working on contingency plans if there are not enough qualified teams for the bowls. I will have a problem if 5-7 teams are going to bowls. That is not good for the game.

Because?

Hey, look, it’s happened before and the Republic survived.

About these ads

11 Comments

Filed under College Football

More SEC, by the numbers

Matt Melton has his SDPI analysis of the SEC up now and, as usual, it’s pretty interesting.  Just to refresh your memory, here’s how he runs the calculations:

… In the 2009 SEC regular season, conference play only, championship games excluded, the average SEC team gained and allowed 2757.583 yards. The standard deviation for yards gained (offense) was 362.41 yards. The standard deviation for yards allowed (defense) was 421.56 yards. Georgia gained 2867 yards and allowed 3035 yards. Their offensive SDPI was 0.30 = [(2867-2757.583)/362.41]. Their defensive SDPI was -0.66 = [(2757.583-3035)/421.56]. Their total SDPI was -0.36. This number ranked 7th in the SEC.

The big thing that he’s looking at is yardage, not points.  So even though he’s focusing on regular season conference games, in which the Dawgs tied for the conference lead in points per game with Arkansas, that’s why Georgia has a pedestrian ranking on offense.

Here’s the conference snapshot:

Quite a few things to take from that…

  • The Hat may have done a better coaching job last season than people gave him credit for.
  • On the other hand, the Nuttster sure pissed away a lot of production.
  • Based on those numbers, it really is hard to come up with a more embarrassing loss last season than Georgia’s to Kentucky.
  • For all the Nick Saban, genius talk, I’m sure not going to miss Charlie Strong.
  • Nice defense you got there, Arkansas.
  • Same to you with that offense, Vanderbilt.  There’s a bigger gap between 12th and 11th than there is between 1st and 9th.  Epic bad.
  • When you factor turnover margin into the equation, those Ole Miss SDPI numbers are truly amazing.  You also have to wonder how our old friend regression to the mean impacts Arkansas this year.

And if you think there’s little relevance between an SEC program’s success and the number of players it produces for the NFL draft, you may want to take a look at this post at MrSEC.com.  There’s a pretty fair correlation between the two over the past decade, as Pennington summarizes:

… Those teams (except Tennessee) that produced 50+ picks all won right around 75% of their games… and they each won multiple SEC titles.

Alabama and Auburn produced 30+ picks and both won an SEC crown.  Auburn won at a near 70% clip which gives a lot of credence to the idea that Tommy Tuberville knew how to “coach players up.”

Those schools churning out 20+ prospects all won in the 50% range.  And those that produced fewer than 20 all won between about 30-40%.

He concludes by noting that we may want to count heads on 2011 draft projections to see which schools are likely to find success in 2010.

8 Comments

Filed under SEC Football, Stats Geek!

Tuesday morning buffet

Rise and shine, campers.

  • Fred Gibson, NFL draft case study.
  • Stewart Mandel notes one result of conference expansion, should it ever occur:  “… it stands to reason that a consolidation of power would only further allow the current BCS powers to retain the status quo…”
  • Auburn doubles down on Tiger Prowl.
  • Mike Slive on expansion and his conference – greed is good, but just in case…
  • Spencer Hall asks the big question about the Logan Gray transfer speculation.
  • This just in:  John Feinstein thinks Jim Delany “sucks”.
  • So how talented is Boise State really?  “The Broncos had one selection, cornerback Kyle Wilson in the first round. He is the school’s only draftee in the past two years.”
  • If you want to play in a BCS game, make sure you have an experienced starting quarterback.

9 Comments

Filed under Auburn's Cast of Thousands, BCS/Playoffs, Big Ten Football, College Football, Georgia Football, It's Just Bidness, Media Punditry/Foibles, Recruiting, SEC Football, Stats Geek!

Can’t live with him, can’t live without him.

Three  Logan Gray questions:

(1) How can you not laugh at that part of the fan base that was denigrating him after the G-Day game and is now freaking out because he’s contemplating his future at Georgia?

(2) Hale is reporting that, “From what I’ve been told, he truly wants to play receiver now and that’s not much of an option at UGA apparently.” Does that mean that the coaches would rather have him leave the program entirely than change positions now?

(3) Given that Richt’s stated position has been “… we just want to get him in the best position to help Georgia”, how does letting him transfer from the program do that?

************************************************************************

UPDATE: Here’s the first report that I’ve seen that Gray has requested his release. (h/t EDSBS)

46 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football