More SEC, by the numbers

Matt Melton has his SDPI analysis of the SEC up now and, as usual, it’s pretty interesting.  Just to refresh your memory, here’s how he runs the calculations:

… In the 2009 SEC regular season, conference play only, championship games excluded, the average SEC team gained and allowed 2757.583 yards. The standard deviation for yards gained (offense) was 362.41 yards. The standard deviation for yards allowed (defense) was 421.56 yards. Georgia gained 2867 yards and allowed 3035 yards. Their offensive SDPI was 0.30 = [(2867-2757.583)/362.41]. Their defensive SDPI was -0.66 = [(2757.583-3035)/421.56]. Their total SDPI was -0.36. This number ranked 7th in the SEC.

The big thing that he’s looking at is yardage, not points.  So even though he’s focusing on regular season conference games, in which the Dawgs tied for the conference lead in points per game with Arkansas, that’s why Georgia has a pedestrian ranking on offense.

Here’s the conference snapshot:

Quite a few things to take from that…

  • The Hat may have done a better coaching job last season than people gave him credit for.
  • On the other hand, the Nuttster sure pissed away a lot of production.
  • Based on those numbers, it really is hard to come up with a more embarrassing loss last season than Georgia’s to Kentucky.
  • For all the Nick Saban, genius talk, I’m sure not going to miss Charlie Strong.
  • Nice defense you got there, Arkansas.
  • Same to you with that offense, Vanderbilt.  There’s a bigger gap between 12th and 11th than there is between 1st and 9th.  Epic bad.
  • When you factor turnover margin into the equation, those Ole Miss SDPI numbers are truly amazing.  You also have to wonder how our old friend regression to the mean impacts Arkansas this year.

And if you think there’s little relevance between an SEC program’s success and the number of players it produces for the NFL draft, you may want to take a look at this post at MrSEC.com.  There’s a pretty fair correlation between the two over the past decade, as Pennington summarizes:

… Those teams (except Tennessee) that produced 50+ picks all won right around 75% of their games… and they each won multiple SEC titles.

Alabama and Auburn produced 30+ picks and both won an SEC crown.  Auburn won at a near 70% clip which gives a lot of credence to the idea that Tommy Tuberville knew how to “coach players up.”

Those schools churning out 20+ prospects all won in the 50% range.  And those that produced fewer than 20 all won between about 30-40%.

He concludes by noting that we may want to count heads on 2011 draft projections to see which schools are likely to find success in 2010.

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8 Comments

Filed under SEC Football, Stats Geek!

8 responses to “More SEC, by the numbers

  1. Mike

    The analysis by Mr SEC implies UGA did less with more?

    UGA had 10% more NFL picks than any other SEC team, yet was third in winning percentage and third in SEC Titles?

    Being number 3 in the SEC is not a bad thing, but my God all that talent

  2. Will Trane

    Some of us have been saying for the past three years that the Dawgs had issues on offense. Such as scoring, production from players, “O” line play, players leaving for the pros too early, coaching, and etc., but the bloggers were in the box for Martinez. I think that is why you see Coach Richt become more involved with the offense this year. They have the coaches, but something has been missing the past few seasons. The change in “D” coaches will help the offense too. Perhaps the last half of 09 saw a subtle shift in the play and direction this “O” is going in 2010. The creation of more depth and experience in the O line by the best O line coach in D1 football. A more aggressive, attacking offensive that stretches the field vertically and horizontally. A physical offensive at all positions not only for scoring but for controlling the ball, clock, and field.

    Two other points. Coach Richt understands that there are players lined up outside the Arches ready to play D1 ball. If you can not be mature enough to handle college life and a D1 regiment, then plan on going somewhere else. LOI should be like a job, produce or go somewhere else.

    It would seem that the powers to be have a nuisance problem in Athens…the selling of alcoholic beverages to underage students by businesses. Perhaps the Unversity president, the AD, the Trustees, and etc need to send a message to businesses this will stop or be shut down.

  3. The O line has finally arrived. In 07, 2 SR. OL. In 08, none. In 09, Vince Vance. The players Searels has been grooming for the last 4 years are now ready to play. 16/17 OL on scholarship & 3 are seniors. It.s now or never for Searels & the OL.

  4. 69Dawg

    Can we just not get all hyped up about 2010. We thought the line would be great in 09 and it was in pass protection but we were out schemed on the line for three quarters by Joe Kines for heavens sake. This line will be good but I wouldn’t bet the farm on them. They are not a dominating ground attack OL unless they play a weak DL Vandy, TT, GT etc.

    We are so thin at so many positions that a few key injuries could kill us. We have recruited ourselves into these shortages and now we are going to have to hold our breath that we can get by.

  5. Dboy

    I kind of agree with the correlation between NFL talent and winning. The NC caliber teams just pour players into the early rounds of the NFL draft the following 1-2 drafts. See Alabama and Florida this year. Also, the great Defensive teams are the dominant while the great offensive teams were less reliably on top of the conference… Or maybe Ark just had a really bad Defense.

  6. ConnGator

    The turnover numbers _are_ amazing. For Arkansas to be +13 on fumbles but still have a losing record is really stunning.

    Meanwhile, both Georgia and Florida recovered but a single fumble all season. I welcome regression to the mean, here.

    Also, no way Bama has 16 picks this year with their defensive attrition.

  7. Vious

    Charlie Strong never got the respect from us that he deserves

    Outside of 1 year, he has absolutely owned us

    Almost as much as Cutcliffe

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