Steele gets regression-y on our ass.

From his “Turnovers = Turnaround” post yesterday:

… As I previously stated, if a team received bad breaks the year before, they will usually be headed for better fortune the following year. In the past 17 years, there have been 208 teams that have finished the season minus double-digits in turnovers. Of those 208 teams, 143 (69%) have had better records the next year! Teams with a negative double-digit TO ratio had the same or stronger records 80% of the time since 1996. Which teams are headed for better fortunes and better seasons?

Going Up TO

Last year a record high 17 teams made the “Going Up” box which meant they had suffered negative double digit turnovers in 2008 and were poised to receive better fortune. Of the 17 teams, 13 (or 76.5%!) had a better record than 2008, 1 had the same record and only 3 of the 17 (17.6%) had a weaker record.

As you can see, Georgia is number two on that chart, with a bullet.  It’s one of only two schools there that finished 2009 with a winning record.

Oh, by the way Alabama and Arkansas, something to keep in mind…

Teams with a positive double-digit TO ratio had the same or weaker record 77.0% of the time since 1996.

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12 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, Phil Steele Makes My Eyes Water, SEC Football

12 responses to “Steele gets regression-y on our ass.

  1. RusDawg

    Well I don’t know about Arkansas fans but I haven’t spoken to a single Tide fan that thinks they will run the table again…so that wouldn’t be the end of the world to them I think.

    Oh. Pigs fly.

  2. ThePetis

    “Teams with a positive double-digit TO ratio had the same or weaker record 77.0% of the time since 1996.”

    My guess is that Alabama would be perfectly fine with having the same record as last year…

  3. sUGArdaddy

    This is just common sense. There are just too many factors in our favor. The turnover deal HAS to change just by sheer luck and remembering what color jersey we wear. Then there’s…

    -We trade a trip to Stillwater to face Dez Bryant and the Pokes for a trip to Boulder to face Hawk-love and the hapless Buffaloes.

    -We trade Arizona St. in Athens for La-Lafayette in Athens

    -We trade a trip to Fayetteville for a trip to Starkville

    -We trade LSU in Athens for Arkansas in Athens

    That’s four games (in which we went 2-2 last year) that are demonstrably easier this year.

    Plus…

    -Washaun Ealey plays a whole season this year

    -We’ve ditched directional kicking

    -Todd Grantham is pacing our sidelines

    -#11 will be throwing the ball instead of #14. (God Bless you, Joe.)

    Just plain makes sense to me that we’ll be a lot better.

  4. HamDawg11

    sUGArdaddy,

    Love your enthusiasm, but football just doesn’t always conform to logic, as much as we’d like it to. There are simply too many variables to account for when comparing one season to the next…or one game to another for that matter.

    For instance, we’ve got some great athletes coming back on defense, but we’re missing 4 HUGE playmakers from ’09 in Atkins, Owens, Rennie, and Reshad. I don’t think enough can be said about their impact last year.

    Curran made plays anytime a ball carrier got near him, he simply didn’t miss tackles. I don’t think we have anyone with his combination of speed, instincts, tenacity and fundamentals that comes in and takes his place.

    Reshad finally became the headhunter and ballhawker last year that we all thought he would be. He’ll be missed more than most people think.

    Owens and Atkins didn’t have phenomenal seasons statistically, but their leadership and consistency will leave a void not easily filled.

    With that said, I don’t think we can simply subtract a loss from last year and add a win for this year and come up with a ‘likely win total’ of 10 games. I think this team has the potential to win 10, just can’t say for sure without seeing the D perform.

    Go Dawgs!

    • sUGArdaddy

      It’s not logical, but it does sometimes just make sense. I totally agree about losing those players, but you’ll have a hard time convincing me we’ll be worse on defense, if for no other reason than it’s almost impossible, and I think Grantham’s a good bit smarter than his predecessor.

      It’s also hard to imagine that we’ll be worse in the turnover department or look so inept at the tailback position for half a season.

      Now, if you want the flip side of that, it’s hard to imagine Blair and Drew will have seasons as excellent as last year’s. That’s probably my biggest concern, strangely. I simply believe the schedule is remarkably easier, even if Arkansas/LSU is a wash like the guys said above (btw, I think Arkansas is this year’s Ole Miss and we’re going to score a hundred on their putrid D) and that the D will play much better because it’s hard not to and Aaron Murray will be the real surprise of the conference, namely because he’ll have all day to throw to some superstars and have the benefit of a play action game that actually stalls the LBs — and he throws on the run as good as anyone I’ve seen in a while.

      What that easier schedule (along w/ Florida’s much harder SEC schedule) also does is allow you to rest more and not expend emotional energy. We should have beaten LSU anyway, but we played them a week after a soggy, soggy night game against a Pac-10 team that took us to the wire…and we looked like it in the first half. We played the Cocks a week after a rough game in Stillwater…and we looked like it in the first half. That emotional wear and tear adds up over the season. Hopefully we’ll have less of that this year.

  5. An Optimists analysis of the Dawg’s Offense:
    The OL returns intact & Sturdivant, Strickland, Harmon, Burnette, & Lee Make up another line we could go to war with.
    King & Ealey make a great 3/4 punch & our # 4 RB, Jackson,could manage 100 yards per game behind this OL.
    We have 2 Senior FBs who can run, block, & catch passes.
    We have 4 TEs who can block, & catch passes.
    We have the best WR in the nation. 3 WRs who are 6’5″ & the best WR corps in the SEC.
    WE can run the ball, set up play action passes, & occasionally go deep. If the D puts 8 in the box to stop the run & double team A.J., that leaves the other WR 1 on 1 the entire game.
    I am very much a CMR & CMB fan;but, if the Dawg’s O is not awesome I may have to rethink that to some extent.
    A final note : this s/b the best O the Dawg’s have had since # 34 left Athens.

  6. negative ?

    You are right about Dontavius Jackson # 27 number 3 Tailback on the post-Spring Depth Chart because # 1 Starter of the last 5 games Caleb King is injured.

    He is a load. With all the discounting of the Spring Strength & Conditioning numbers, what obviously is true is that you can compare Dontavius Jackson (or anyone else) to everyone else. The numbers are obviously not true. But, they were all measured by the same method.

    Here is what we found out. Dontavius Jackson, while not 1 of the faster players, did show great athleticism. He was excellent on the broad jump, excellent on the vertical jump, and excellent on the 225 lbs bench press reps. He did not score in the NFL Shuttle or the 40-yard dash. However, we do have a fast team and the crazy Strength & Conditioning should have just shown every speed, not just the Top 10 at each group of positions. Dontavius is reported at 4.4 speed in the 40-yard dash. That is plenty quick for an inside running back who pushes the pile between the tackles.

    Dontavius Jackson would not have been redshirted on any other SEC team. And, he would not have had only 3 carries against hapless Vandie and no other carry the entire season last year.

    Dontavius also did not fumble the football, a rarity for each of the last 4 years averaging 21 fumbles a year, each of the last 4 in a row – with all of them returning this season and 22 fumbles last year alone.

    Underrated according to 3 of 4 Bulldog fans in a survey, this Heard County 4-Star recruit obviously I agree should have been used in Game 1 last year, if not the year before. What are we waiting for ?

    Dontavius Jackson turns 21 just after we play Florida.

    Alabama, LSU and Penn State, among those who offered Dontavius Jackson a Scholarship would have far better used Dontavius Jackson than we have.

    Dontavius Jackson is one of the best players in this state, one of the top tailbacks in the nation, and has demonstrated that he deserves his reps.

    I think Dontavius Jackson is set for a break-out Sophomore Year. They have to hand him the football if we want to run well between the tackles and not fumble the football.

    By the way, what Phil Steele says on that page is NOT that a team who 4 years in a row fumbles the football an average of 21 fumbles a year and for the same 4 years in a row throws 14 interceptions a year, that they will not do it again the following season (Year 5 in a row) with the returning running backs all back and with the Quarterback a Raw Freshman vs SEC Defenses and the speed in The SEC; but that a team who was way positive last year 2009 in turnover margin, will not likely enjoy the same success the following year.

    Unfortunately, we WILL throw 14 interceptions and we WILL fumble the football 21 times. It IS what this offense does. It also will line up and get called for Penalties at the # 96 NCAA Rank again this year 5 in a row, just as we have the previous 4 years averaged # 96 Penalties too.

    That is not going away. We changed nothing, except swapped a 5-Year Senior QB for a Freshman, who has never lined up under center ever and who has had 3 injuries the last 2 years because of his size.

    So, if we are going to sit here and discuss the Turnover Margin, let’s discuss what it is made up of, and admit that we are going to be GREAT on Defense this season and much improve that side of it, and that on Offense – nothing is going to change. It cannot.

    As for the schedule, true that according to Chris Low ESPN last Friday that Coach Richt is # 5 Coach in The SEC at their current school vs Top 25 teams on Game Day, but our other problem is that we also have Lost to 8 teams who were not ranked in the Top 25 Final AP Poll and 5 of those are in The SEC East over the last 4 years (10-10 vs SEC East the last 4 years and frankly only Florida has been any good whatsoever as an opponent in The SEC East over the last 4 years.)

    So, we do have to concern ourselves in games against :

    South Carolina
    Arkansas
    Tennessee
    Florida
    Auburn
    Georgia tek

    The way we have played favorites on offense, fumbling, throwing interceptions and getting penalties the last 4 years, we could easily struggle on Offense against other LESSER teams such as against Vandie, Mississippi State, and Colorado.

    Simply put directly to the point here of this page, we struggle on Offense or our Head Coach would not have told his entire Offensive Coaching Staff that he is JUST ONLY SITTING IN ON ALL THEIR meetings all year, and we all know he is going to also call plays (which has been a serious sore spot to the 100 percent of the fans booing the play calls at Sanford Stadium for years now), and we all know he is also going to get involved in these damned decisions to not play Dontavius Jackson.

    To-date, all we have done, is to NOT PLAY Dontavius Jackson. This is his 3rd year here, and with all the struggles we had to find a tailback last year, Dontavius got 3 carries all season long and they all 3 in the Game # 7 last year.

    Criminal.

    We are loaded on Offense. We absolutely have a great Defense, and the 2 best kickers in the nation on 1 team.

    Dawg39, I am with you agreeing that we have the talent on offense (you did leave out NO back-up Quarterback) to do something about # 96 avg 4 years in Penalties, 21 fumbles avg 4 years in a row too, and 14 interceptions avg 4 years in a row; but here I differ : I do NOT think we have the coaching to do anything about any of these 3 areas again year 5 in a row this year : Penalties, Fumbles, Interceptions.

    Coach Perno fired his Pitching Coach which I called for after about 10 games this season. He wasn’t getting anything out of them. And, I have seen more than enough of Mike Bobo. But, dawg39, if you want to wait until the end of this year to make that determination Coach Richt already has, and if the # 2 QB in the nation will only come here (I don’t seen any difference between Michael Grant’s offense Admissions would not agree with Coach Richt on) if Mike Bobo stays, then that’s that.

  7. negative ?

    We need to make hay this year. 10-win season in 14-game seasons nowadays is just # 19 in the nation. That is not, nor should it be, the goal to the # 19 team as we have been over the last 4 years at 38-14 good for # 19 won / loss record over the last 4 years.

    Why can’t we go 13-1 instead ? Everyone would love to go 12-2.

    Look, we are the # 11 team in the nation in All-Time 1-A Football wins. Shooting for a goal of not getting to play in The SEC Championship Game and Losing 3 games in addition, is no where near the # 11 football team. And, we haven’t been over the last 4 years, the # 11 team, but the # 19 team.

    Now, this season with 10 returning starters on Offense (all but the QB of whom we have but 1 on the roster – and, gravely looking just like Michael Grant not being allowed in by Admissions despite Coach Richt whining about that in the papers when he did the exact same offense in the exact same place on school grounds), there is no way with 15 seniors this year and 4 more juniors who everyone has high on the NFL draft charts already and possibly even more than 4 maybe 5 juniors leaving, that next year is going to be our year.

    I call for us to go at least 11-3. 10-3 I cannot go along with as a great year. Frankly folks this is year 10 for this Coach Richt Era. We should be able to go with this weak schedule 12-2. That is a loss we don’t deserve at 12-2.

    Expectations are WAY TOO LOW around here at 10-3. B. S. on a 10-win season.

  8. yeah, I am willing to wait for the season to be over to see f I am correct.
    In the meantime, I am anxious for the season to start because I believe that It will begin the start of a great 4 year run by the Dawgs, CMR, & CMB. Time will tell.