Daily Archives: July 29, 2010

SEC East: optimist or pessimist?

Okay, we did the West yesterday.  Now it’s Georgia’s division’s turn.

Florida is the other team which has a whole number win total.  It’s the only SEC team which Football Outsiders probability chart assigned a 50% likelihood to a win total.

Here we go:

FLORIDA:  11 wins

I’m sorry, but you don’t lose the SEC’s player of the decade, someone who was born to run Urban Meyer’s offense, and Charlie Strong without taking a step backwards.  You just don’t.  Add in playing Alabama on the road and I can’t see this team losing only once.  (Unfortunately, that doesn’t mean I can’t see the Gators back in Atlanta, but that’s another story.)

GEORGIA:  8.5 wins

If you’ve read my posts for the past few months, you know my formula for 2010 is something like this:  easier schedule + regression to the mean in turnover margin = more than last year’s win total.

KENTUCKY:  5.5 wins

This team looks like it might be decent on defense, and it has at least two elite players on offense who ought to be touching the ball a lot (Joker Phillips ain’t stupid).  When I look at the schedule, though, it seems to come down to the last game of the season, at Tennessee.  History is against the ‘Cats, but I think Tennessee’s lack of depth lets UK get the job done this year and gets them in a bowl.

SOUTH CAROLINA:  7.5 wins

It’s the schedule that makes me hesitate on this call.  The ‘Cocks will be good enough on defense and I don’t think Garcia is going to be worse than mediocre, no matter how often his coach denigrates him.  But if they don’t beat Georgia in week two and have their usual second half swoon, those last four games are a tough row to hoe (even Troy may be a pain in the ass).  I can’t point to anything specific, but something tells me South Carolina gets its eight.

TENNESSEE:  7.5 wins

Derek Dooley coached his team to a losing record in the WAC last year.  He’s got a team that seriously lacking in talented depth at positions where you can’t survive in the SEC without.  You can make a reasonable argument that Tennessee will struggle to win five games this year, let alone eight.  No way, no how the Vols hit the over here.

VANDERBILT:  2.5 wins

It’s a good thing Robbie Caldwell has a sense of humor.  He’s going to need it.  If there are more than two wins on Vandy’s schedule, I don’t see where.

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