Momentum is bunk, stats are misleading, etc.

Found this interesting and wanted to share – from the invaluable cfbstats.com, check out the offensive scoring rankings for SEC teams in October and the defensive scoring rankings for the same period.

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UPDATE: I thought you’d like to know that Georgia opens as a 3 1/2 point favorite on the road against Kentucky.  And South Carolina is only favored by 12 1/2 on the road in Nashville.

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34 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football

34 responses to “Momentum is bunk, stats are misleading, etc.

  1. Biggus Rickus

    Imagine what the ppg would look like if they’d tried to score in the 4th quarter the last two weeks.

  2. UFTimmy

    Speaking of stats, UF moved from 11th to 9th in the SEC in total offense based on our great play this weekend.

    To me, scoring points is irrelevant, to me.

  3. NM

    Anytime UF is behind Vandy in scoring offense… during a period in which Vandy was shut out in 1/3 of their games… you gotta smile.

    /Eastern Michigan blah blah

  4. Josh

    Like the trends for UGA… get back to me in two weeks. Hell, get back to me this time next week… would feel a lot better if we were playing in Athens on Saturday, instead of Lexington.

    Addazio’s gonna be burned at the stake. Wow.

    Manny Diaz is getting it done in Starkvegas, baby.

    • Russ

      Agreed on Manny Diaz. I loved him as our tennis coach, but who knew he could call defense, too?

      Seriously, when his name came up on some blog last winter, I said “who?” I don’t think there would have been the wonderful reception for Diaz during the offseason like there was for Grantham. Still, he appears to be a good coach. I’m glad we have Grantham, but MSU seems to be putting a good nucleus together there. Until they get hired off somewhere else.

  5. Bulldog Joe

    Our October arrests (2) have been trending down from previous months.

    But there are still two weeks left.

  6. Russ

    Has anyone else noticed that Grantham seems to have been “turned loose” again with the sideline ranting? The first game, he chewed out Rambo (IIRC) for blowing the coverage that led to their touchdown. Then, he appeared silent for the next several games (with rumors that Richt told him to tone it down). However, this past game, he was raging again. I like that in a DC. You can’t have everyone be calm and cool like Richt. You need a Yin to the Yang.

    Of course, I saw Richt reeming some kid out during the Colorado game for a PF, and I thought he was going to accidentally hit the kid with his clip board, he was swinging it around so much. Football is an emotional game. Glad to see our coaches get into it on occasion.

  7. Rick

    And using all the data, the sagarin ratings seems to agree that UGA has had a tough luck season. Our predictor value (which is the best single predictor for future games that he computes) is extremely out of place with our overall rank.

    http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt10.htm

    By that model, we are 23rd overall and would be favored, among others, over wisconsin, michigan state, texas and florida. And that’s computed from mostly pre-AJ data.

  8. hccargo

    Those stats come against Colorado, UT and Vandy- not exactly a murderer’s row there. That being said, I would consider it positive momentum if we were first and second in those categories against three directional schools.
    I think this week tells us a lot. As much as I like to think we can beat this bad UF team there are always psychological factors at play in Jacksonville that make that game a tough one to evaluate. But a good win this week would convince me we’ve turned some kind of corner.

  9. Bad M

    Who was that psychiatrist that worked with Smoltzy early in his career? We need him to work with the team before Jax. “The ball is my friend.”

    • Julie

      We don’t need Smoltz’ psychiatrist. For the past two weeks, we’ve had our former NFL players delivering their version of a pep talk — more like “The other team is your mortal enemy,” but maybe not in such nice words.

      • Go Dawgs!

        I hope that Coach Richt has somebody special lined up to address this team before the Florida game, then. The game this weekend is a HUGE swing game, and is not to be overlooked. But if you look at Georgia’s three remaining conference games, there’s only one team on the schedule with a voodoo curse over the Dawgs. Florida can be beaten, obviously. But Georgia’s gonna need to come in with some serious inspiration.

        So who do you guys think would be a good former ‘Dawg to come in and give that speech?

  10. NRBQ

    Schultz points out that UGA’s average computer rankings within the BCS system is 60.5.

    Damn you Andrea Adleson!

  11. Really fun to look at those stats, but you have to keep in mind we played 2 crap teams in the month of October.

  12. Xon

    Sure, but we also played some of the SEC’s top teams earlier (Arky and Ms St have spunk, if nothing else, and SC is the leader in the East). It all evens out.

    Football Outsiders have never done this analysis with college, to my knowledge, but they have shown that the clearest indicator of a team’s overall quality is not what they do against other good teams, but what they do against teams they should pound. Georgia pounding weaker teams is a good sign. That’s all it is, but good is good. Right? :-)

  13. I don’t mind Grantham”s rants as long as its legit and not pandering. The Rambo rant looked for show.

  14. Wolfman

    According to this we’ll meet Mississippi St. in Atlanta in December.