Daily Archives: November 20, 2010

So how much did Green’s suspension hurt?

Obviously, that’s a question to which we’ll never get a definitive answer, but based on some data Bill Connelly posted yesterday, I’d say significantly.

Bill employs a performance metric he calls S&P+.  Here’s how he compiles it:

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from the play-by-play data of all 800+ of a season’s FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays). There are three key components to the S&P+:

  • Success Rate: A common Football Outsiders tool used to measure efficiency by determining whether every play of a given game was successful or not. The terms of success in college football: 50 percent of necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third and fourth down.
  • EqPts Per Play (PPP): An explosiveness measure derived from determining the point value of every yard line (based on the expected number of points an offense could expect to score from that yard line) and, therefore, every play of a given game.
  • Opponent adjustments: Success Rate and PPP combine to form S&P, an OPS-like measure for football. Then each team’s S&P output for a given category (Rushing/Passing on either Standard Downs or Passing Downs) is compared to the expected output based upon their opponents and their opponents’ opponents. This is a schedule-based adjustment designed to reward tougher schedules and punish weaker ones.

You might notice that Georgia is one of two schools with losing records that still shows up in his top 30 S&P+ rankings.  But what’s especially interesting is the weighted version (he breaks it down on a single-game by single-game basis) he analyzes in that first linked post.  Using that approach, Georgia jumps to sixth.  By explanation,

Georgia (Weighted Rk: sixth, Actual Rk: 29th). The Bulldogs still have to beat Georgia Tech if they want to become bowl eligible, but they have looked good to very good in five of their last six games. They dug themselves such a hole in September and early October (needless to say, the lifeless loss to Colorado does not look too good right now), but they are a handful at the moment.

You might also note that Bill lists Georgia’s results in the Kentucky game as the fourth best performance of the season by any school in the country.  Clearly, this bunch got things in a higher gear after A.J.’s return.

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Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

“You’ve got to be awfully good to get into the playoffs…”

Well, sure, if this is your definition of “awfully good”:

If the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga receives an at-large bid into the Football Championship Subdivision playoffs, the Mocs will have the NCAA to thank.

Not only because the Mocs — who must win at ninth-ranked Wofford today to have a chance — would have been chosen by the Division I football committee, but also because the committee two years ago pushed for the expansion of the playoff field from 16 to 20 teams starting in 2010.

“It’s increased a bunch of people’s opportunities,” Mocs coach Russ Huesman said. “If it was a 16-team field, I probably wouldn’t be popping off as much, saying how much we deserve to be in there. But I truly believe, if we win, that we’ve got a good enough football team and our body of work would show it.”

Wofford can clinch a share of the Southern Conference championship with a win, so the Mocs (6-4, 5-2) are well aware that all playoff talk is pointless if they don’t upset the Terriers (8-2, 6-1) at Gibbs Stadium.

Seven wins, plus a couple of tough losses to other FCS teams – there’s your formula for a shot at a national title.  If that falls short, they can always expand the tourney to 24 schools.

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Filed under BCS/Playoffs

Follow up on the 2011 Chick-fil-A Kickoff Game

On the money end of things, McGarity did even better than I thought he would:

… Louisville declined a request to mutually cancel the series, so the Chick-fil-A Bowl and ESPN agreed to pay a $600,000 series buyout to Louisville and helped arrange an alternative home-and-home series for the Cardinals against North Carolina.

In addition, Georgia will receive approximately $1.7 million to appear in the game, while Boise State will receive $1.4 million.

The Bulldogs also cleared space for an extra 2012 home game – giving Georgia seven home games that season – by ending the Louisville series. McGarity said an announcement on that opponent should come in the near future.

So, he got the buyout cut in half, still has his school taking in more from the game than BSU and picks up a seventh home game in 2012.  Not bad for a day’s work.

And here’s the topper:

… The Georgia Dome seats more than 71,000 people, and Georgia fans are expected to fill most of those seats.

Boise State will be given 7,500 tickets and will not face a penalty if any are left unsold, Stokan said.

The rest of the allotted tickets, discounting those reserved for suite owners and local sales, will be given to Georgia. The number is yet to be determined, but Georgia could receive upwards of 50,000 tickets. In dealing with ticket sales, McGarity said his staff would model the allotment after the annual game against Florida in Jacksonville, Fla.

“Well, we’re going to talk about that actually Monday as far as our block,” McGarity said. “In other words, we already have sort of a model in place with the 40,000 tickets that we have in Jacksonville every year. So we basically have a model in place on how to deal with tickets of this bulk. So we’re going to sit down Monday as a staff and fine tune some things and deal with the allocation of 50,000 some odd tickets there.”

50,000 tickets for the home folks.  I can see the grin on his face from here.

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Filed under Georgia Football