As luck wouldn’t have it.

Citing Les Miles’ 25-9 record at LSU in games decided by one score, Michael Elkon ponders whether that’s due to sheer luck or something else:

… Rather, LSU’s success in close games speaks to Gary Crowton’s incoherence as a playcaller.  There are a lot of good criticisms of Crowton; one of the best is that he doesn’t have a defined style, but instead calls a pastiche of plays that don’t fit together.  At the end of a tight game, he’s forced to go away from the grab bag and instead call the plays that work the best.  Voila, LSU can move the ball when their backs are against the wall…

… So here’s the modification of my theory.  In some instances, a team wins a lot of close games because they are lucky and the small sample size of success in tight games doesn’t tell us anything.  In other instances, a team that plays in a lot of close games and wins a high percentage of those games is underutilizing its talent.  Thus, it ends up in close games repeatedly and then wins those close games because the coaches stop dicking around in the last five minutes.

Following that reasoning, you could argue that one explanation for Georgia’s recent play in those types of games is that Mike Bobo isn’t as inspired in his late-game playcalling as Gary Crowton.  That’s gotta hurt.

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17 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, SEC Football

17 responses to “As luck wouldn’t have it.

  1. JBJ

    It is simple. LSU and UGA don’t play up to their potential. They don’t have a sense of urgency until the game is on the line at the end. I would agree that is due to coaching. I don’t understand letting the other team dictate your pace. Remember when we used to run the hurry up offense early on with CMR? I know the powers that be put a stop to that for the most part. However, after watching UF put it to us via the hurry up, I wonder if we shouldn’t consider that option.

  2. jferg

    what comes first, consistency from your offense or gutsy play-calling? seems Bobo suffers from the latter because of the former…all resulting in lack of trust.

  3. Dooms Day Dawg

    The Dawgs are not posting L’s by the truck load due to our offense (Yes, Bobo is not a great OC. That much is a given right now.). The L’s are due to the defense. The Dawgs simply lack talent on the defensive side of the ball. Houston is the only playmaker right now. Period. More talent = more W’s.

    • W Cobb Dawg

      It’s true. D wins games. But when’s the last time our O put the game out of reach early – and thereby made things easy on the D? And how many games has the O completely blown regardless of how well the D played? Those fumbles in what was almost a sure win against uk last year are still clear in my mind. The fumbles and int against fl this year.

      In defense of our defensive coordinators, CMR & CMB have never made life easy for the D. The D has always had to do the heavy lifting.

      • gastr1

        When’s the last time? How about Uk, Vanderbilt, Tennessee this year? How about 21-7 vs AU? How about being behind 13-3 against Colorado and getting a 24-14 lead in the 3rd? How about being behind without even touching the ball in, what, five games this year?

        • gastr1

          Sorry, 14-3 against CU. While I’m at it, let me ask how many times an offense should have to win a game bu scoring more than 30 points, i.e., how many points does everyone else think is a reasonable number to have to outscore?

          Because it is always a game of outscoring in the end. I remember whole years where we never gave up 30…

  4. Dog in Fla

    “wins those close games because the coaches stop dicking around in the last five minutes.”

    When asked who was in charge of dicking around, our Marks respond…

  5. Biggus Rickus

    This is completely unrelated, and maybe you already addressed it, but the MLB expanding its playoff is more fodder for the “playoffs inevitably expand” argument.

  6. a

    Kind of off topic but interesting.

    I was looking for “three and out” stats trying to quantify what I “feel” like is wrong with Bobo’s offense (the points are not the whole story…the offense disappearing for quarters at a time puts a huge weight on the defense), anyway, came across http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/feioff2010 which puts UGA and LSU (and tech, odd enough) right about the same place…

    • Biggus Rickus

      So based on their metric, Georgia has had 3-and-outs 30% of the time, which is slightly above average based on my cursory glance at the rest of the list. Also, going back to the earlier thread about Mullen, MSU is 79th on that chart.

      • Mayor of Dawgtown

        In spite of what people say about Miles being inept at clock management and all that “end of the game” stuff his teams win the close games. His staff and team are doing something right that UGA’s staff and team are doing wrong.