What passes for my Iron Bowl insight

Although ‘Bama is favored today, there are a number of pundits who like Auburn’s chances to win.  What’s interesting to me is that the vast majority of those folks, like Stewart Mandel, think that in doing so, Ted Roof’s defense is going to hold Alabama to around 28 points.  Considering that Auburn has yielded more than thirty points to three teams which have had less success scoring this season than the Tide, how realistic is that?

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UPDATE: I have to give credit where credit is due.  Who knew Jim McElwain would decide to channel his inner Mike Bobo today?

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38 Comments

Filed under Auburn's Cast of Thousands, Nick Saban Rules

38 responses to “What passes for my Iron Bowl insight

  1. Bryant Denny

    This is a unique game to try to handicap. Auburn’s schedule has been extremely favorable, up to this point, so how to they play on the road? Bama, meanwhile, has played a lot better at home, but their toughest opponents have been on the road. We don’t tackle well, don’t get off the field on 3rd down like last year, don’t pressure the QB well, and the secondary is vulnerable to big plays.

    To beat a top ranked team, you have to pretty much follow the same formula: be at the top of your game, create and take advantage of turnovers, limit big plays and smack them right in the face with your tightly clenched fist. Oh, and I a little home field doesn’t hurt either.

    I don’t think we match up well with them, so I predict they will win, but I hope we get after them for the whole game.

    Have a good day,

    BD

    • Scorpio Jones, III

      BD you are probably right about not matching up very well with them, at least in some places, but Georgia’s ability to score on them with a similar offense, plus your real runningbacks (at least two of them, dammit) and a defense that may not be as stifling as last year, but is demonstrably better than Georgia’s makes things appear to be real interesting.

      I gotta tell you, this game is always of interest to me, but this year I have pretty much planned my day around it.

      Are you getting goosebumps yet?

      • Bryant Denny

        Yeah…to be honest I can’t stand it. I’m so fired up I’m ready to burn my couch…before the game.

        I’m hoping McElroy can light up that secondary and our #8 will have a big game. Our OC tends to go a bit Bobo on us every now and then and takes his foot off the gas. That can’t happen today.

        I’m also hoping they used up all that crazy crap on us last year and on yall this year (on sides kicks, etc.). I’m hoping they play like they’ve got something to lose.

        Have a good day,

        BD

        • Dolly Llama

          Yo, BD, that couch. Was it a three-alarmer, four-alarmer … ?

        • dudetheplayer

          Damn bro, I know you’re hurting after that one, but you guys looked like a more talented version of us out there.

          Everywhere except for QB that is.

          “Go a bit Bobo”, indeed.

    • Brandon

      Good luck BD, Roll Tide!

    • Dolly Llama

      Found one in your honor, BD:

  2. shane#1

    I picked the Tide in this one. AU is pretty much a one trick pony, and I think Saban and Smart can stop any one player. On the other hand, AU’s D backfield is suspect, and they have to stop two really good backs, and some kid named Jones. McElroy is no Cam, but he is a competent QB. BD, I hope you guys have something special planned for Fairley.

    • heyberto

      If they can just consistently cut into Cam’s production to a measurable degree, I think they can put up points on that pass defense.

    • Bryant Denny

      Well, McElroy can’t hold the ball forever. He’s got to find #8 and get it out of there.

      I predict that Fairley will play well, but I don’t think he’ll get crazy today. Too much is at stake for them next week.

  3. heyberto

    Just saw Mel Kiper’s rundown on the game on Sportscenter. They showed a highlight reel of Fairley while he’s talking about Fairley’s ‘Sacks’ as the Fairley late helmet hit on Murray’s back is rolling… uhhh.. that wasn’t a sack there, WWL. Why am I not surprised?

  4. Puffdawg

    My predition is after a loss today the barners are turning on Chizik and his D and how Malzahn had bailed them out all year.

  5. shane#1

    Now I am having second thoughts, what if AU thinks that Bama is going to go all out to stop Cam from running and just has him stand back there and throw all day? But then, they may think that Bama thinks that’s what they are thinking, but Bama could be thinking that AU thinks that’s what they’re thinking and, oh hell, now I’m getting a headache. Anyway, I hope ya’ll don’t misunderstand what I meant by having something special for Fairley, I never want to see a kid badly hurt. But of course if some big ol OT wants to give Fairley an extra little love tap it’s ok by me.

  6. Hogbody Spradlin

    Senator I think holding Bama to 28 points is doable. Bring up Bama’s scoring results for the year and look at them closely. they lit it up against patsies but have been held under 30 plenty.

  7. Dolly Llama

    Oh, this is just TOO GOOD! Fairley makes a good play, but behind 14-0 decides to get up and act like he just won the game and keeps the drive alive for another seven for the Tide with that unsportsmanlike conduct penalty.

    “He has a spotlight on him,” Lundquist says. Yeah, Verne. You must have been reading your hate mail the last couple of weeks.

    This game should start getting really ugly in 3…2…

  8. Dolly Llama

    I’d love to see a little ugliness, myself. Auburn should show the world what they are in a game when all eyes are on them.

  9. Will

    Damn, Alabama does it big. Throwing fake money at Newton? Playing “Take the Money and Run” as the Auburn team runs onto the field? That takes a special kind of hate. Good on ya, boys.

  10. Dolly Llama

    And a 21-yard punt. Oh my, my, my. This game may tighten up eventually, but as it stands now, I haven’t enjoyed watching one team dismantle another one this much since Georgia played Hawaii in the Sugar Bowl.

  11. Dolly Llama

    I’m loving hearing Verne “Lightbulb Head” Lundquist and company continue to try and fellate Auburn through this.

  12. Dolly Llama

    28-27. Son of a damn bitch.

  13. AthensHomerDawg

    Kirby seems a a bit stifled by Auburn and has burned a rather large point advantage..not sure he remains a head coach in waiting for UGa…..
    but I digress.

  14. Dolly Llama

    Shit. Seems like a man can’t have nothin’ sometimes.

  15. AthensHomerDawg

    CWM … another head coach in waiting apparently has not lived up to his all star status either.
    just sayin’

  16. NRBQ

    That was tough. I thought I wanted Auburn to lose, but watching Saban go from smug to enraged was fun.

  17. NM

    What’s interesting to me is that the vast majority of those folks, like Stewart Mandel, think that in doing so, Ted Roof’s defense is going to hold Alabama to around 28 points.

    Well, blind squirrel finds a nut every now and then…

  18. The Realist

    Jim McElwain is no better than Bobo. Alabama gets the ball inside the 10 three different times and calls all passes with a Heisman trophy winner in the backfield. Run the ball. Pick up a couple of yards each play, and score touchdowns. Instead, they get two field goals and a turnover. Stupid playcalling on top of screwups like fumbles and blown assignments by Barron will get you a one point loss after being up 24-0… well, that and referees losing their hankies when it is convenient.

  19. dudetheplayer

    Feel bad for the Bama fans. That was just brutal.

    I think our lamentations about the lack of talent on defense are dead on after watching that one. I don’t think we’re being outdone by Bama from a scheme or coaching standpoint. We just don’t have the playmakers those guys have on the D. Got hunker down on that ‘cruitin trail, gentlemen.

    Malzahn+Cam through 4 quarters is just damn hard to stop without a truly phenomenal defense.

    Go USCe.

  20. Jace Walden

    Hey look at that. Ted Roof held Alabama to 28 points.

  21. Bulldog Joe

    Dirty or not, Auburn earned this one.

    Defense held them to six points after the first quarter, the coaching staff made the right adjustments, and in the second half they were the better-conditioned team.

  22. D.N. Nation

    Inner Bobo?

    That was Bobo Deluxe with an extra order of fries. That was probably one of the greatest football chokes of all time.

  23. shane#1

    Oh well, now ya’ll know why I don’t bet on CFB anymore. Cam was stopped in the first half, just like UGA did, then the AU offense makes adjustments and here we are. I sure hope Cam is in the NFL next year. I have gone from wanting a lockout so UGA keeps Green to wanting Cam gone. Sorry BD.

  24. Chuck

    Before the game and after the game, I still don’t know what to think about Auburn. Or Alabama. Or us, for that matter. Auburn has looked crappy at some time in almost every game they have played – we were up 21-7 very quickly only to lose by a bunch. But every single time they have overcome it, usually so comfortably that if the only thing you knew was the final score you’d have no idea it was ever close. And they have done that by figuring out what worked with the personnel they had available. I wonder if they have a patent on that formula. Eh, we should just steal it and pay royalties if they do.

    Take away Fairly and Newton, and their players look like solid, but average players. Scheme has to be a part of it, so kudos to whoever on the staff is making it happen. Hopefully, whoever it is will get hired away soon, and with any luck they will be in Athens as part of the home team.

  25. almightytmc1

    Cam will go were the money is.
    I’am sure Pat Dye will go a little over league minimum. But I don’t think Cam and Malzahn will stay becayse lets face it, the offensive line is finally going to graduate after 7 years of red shirts and exemptions. Staying in Lee county would see their stock drop a good bit.
    Well, maybe Nick Fairley will take his cheating fat ass of the the NFL too. I am sure he is already talking to agents. Vos thats how they roll in the ‘Burn.

  26. almightytmc1

    Sorry for the typos. My 2 year old is in my lap and she just loves helping her dad.