My question for the offseason

I wrote previously that once we get past the anger and disappointment of how the 2010 season played out, all we’re going to be left with is puzzlement.

So one thing that struck me as I was looking at the stats when I wrote the prior post about the defense was the change in Georgia’s net scoring from 2009 to 2010.  Here’s my question to you guys:  how does a team go from +3 per game in net scoring to +11.2 and see its record decline from 8-5 to 6-6 (with a bowl game to go)?

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44 Comments

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44 responses to “My question for the offseason

  1. Castleberry

    Easy – Lose the close ones and blow ‘em out when you win.

  2. Rob

    Very poorly timed fumbles?

  3. fuelk2

    Apparently we have to re-learn how to close. Some of that will come through upgrades to the defensive personnel that keeps those guys from getting so gassed in the fourth quarter. Some of it is just an attitude and confidence thing.

  4. Biggus Rickus

    By not “finishing the drill.”

  5. hodgie

    Frontrunner attitude. I think UGA has had it for years. When things are going great we are unstoppable. When things turn bad we can’t get out of our own way. Maybe I think this because I haven’t really paid attention to a lot of other cfb teams but it seems that way to me.

    • Biggus Rickus

      That’s an oversimplification. They had comeback wins over the Techs Va. and Ga. to close ’06. ’07 fits your assessment. ’08 saw several close shootouts and a narrow win over Auburn. ’09 featured a few more close wins that Georgia could easily have lost along with some ugly losses. This year they simply couldn’t finish a game. When things were going bad against Arkansas they sucked it up and scored two fourth quarter TDs only to fall short with a chance to win. When they fell behind twice to Colorado they stormed back for a lead and then put themselves in position to win only to fumble it away, respectively. After a terrible first half they rallied to take Florida to overtime. There weren’t really any games this year like UT ’07 where it started bad and stayed bad all the way through.

      • gastr1

        Yeah, it’s hard to imagine this team getting blown out by anybody, which is most certainly an improvement, but choking in the clutch was as big of a theme as turnovers were last year. Even against GT we tried to give it away at the end.

        Is this a lack of confidence, the defense gassed at the end, inexperience with pressure–or all three?

        • Biggus Rickus

          I wish I knew. It could be choking. It could be luck. It could be playcalling. It could be inconsistent execution in general that just happened to show up in key circumstances for no other reason than statistical probability. Losing a series of close games also highlights those individual mistakes that are so costly in hindsight. If a running back fumbles on the five in a 31-6 loss it just sort of blends into the horribleness of the rest of the game. When he does it in a 17-6 loss it stands out.

      • hodgie

        I agree that those were some nice comebacks. However, I think they were against truly inferior teams. Also, what put us in the position to need to have to comeback. I think it is the frontrunner attitude. It may be an oversimplification but it is what I think. I do think the attitude is changing somewhat. I think Grantham is one of the main reasons for it. I really do. But, I think there is some giveup and frontrunner that still needs to be gone from UGA.

  6. Joe

    Damn Statistics!

  7. gatriguy

    Try using median as your measure of central tendency rather than average. Also, throw out the ULL, Idaho St., and UTT games from the past two years. Also, look at the standard deviation for both off and def pts/game over the past few years. Then go back and look at the pts/game mean, mode, and standard deviation during the BVG years. Then fix a good stiff drink and accept that the brains of the operation left in 2004 when Richt chose Garner over BVG.

    • SCDawg

      I agree with the stat argument, but I am confused as to how Richt chose Garner over Van Gorder? His leaving to be a LB coach instead of a NFL DC or college HC was odd, but what was the choice Richt made?

      • gatriguy

        Could be pure rumor mill, but I’ve always heard from multiple sources that BVG gave Richt an “It’s me or Garner” ultimatum, and Richt called his bluff.

        • W Cobb Dawg

          I’m not disputing your story, but why would BVG’s son join Dawgs as a walk-on on D if there was antipathy with CRG? If I hated somebody, I wouldn’t send my kid to play for him.

          Count me as somebody who wishes BVG never left. CMR was nuts for letting him walk. I’d dismiss the whole damn staff if BVG didn’t like em.

  8. crapsandwich

    Even stranger is the difference even while applying the conference games only. Well as they statistics lie and lies are statistics.

  9. Captain Obvious

    By blowing the snot out of two cupcakes this year versus not having two equally tasty cupcakes on last year’s schedule to demolish, that’s how. Before the season, we all looked at this year’s schedule and determined that it was easier than last year’s. That led many of us to think the record would improve on that issue alone. In the end, all the team did was feast more hungrily on the cupcakes, and choke on the remainder of the schedule.

    So what do you think that means in light of the Florida-ization of the schedule going forward?

    • piper

      we also didn’t get our doors blown off in any game this year as had become custom once or twice per season in recent years. all the losses were relatively close (or the other team scored late to make it look worse than it was).

  10. Irwin Fletcher

    Georgia was +65 in 3 games against non-bowl teams last season.
    Georgia was +140 in 4 games against non-bowl teams this season. (+142 in the 3 games they won against non-bowl teams this season…ugh)

    Add in the fact that Georgia had 3 losses by 14 or more last year and that they only lost once by 14 this season…and there you go.

    And just as an FYI…this is my argument against the whole “The offense is fine b/c we are scoring 30+ or more in 7 games in a row”….we scored 30+ 7 times last season. I’m not blaming Bobo, but I think it comes down to two things: (1) the inability to run the ball against good teams…which results in too many 3 and outs, our defense on the field too often, and bogs us down when we insist that we have to run for runnings sake rather than score for winnings sake AND (2) the fact that our defense blows.

    I’ll say this….24 turnovers created is the best number at UGA in 3 seasons. It is a good trend. But that is why looking at net numbers is deceiving. We created 3 turnovers in 4 games against ranked opponents. In 2007, when we had 26 turnovers created, we had 12 in 4 games against ranked opponents. In 2006, we had 10 in 4 games against ranked opponents.

    That is the issue at Georgia right now. We are padding our stats against lesser foes and aren’t getting anything done against better opponents. We are decidedly mediocre…BUT, that can change in a hurry with a solid infusion of in-state talent. See Alabama from 2007 to 2008.

    • Biggus Rickus

      As some statistical chart pointed out in a post a week or two ago, the offense has gone three and out about 30% of the time, which is slightly above average.

    • dboy

      “I’m not blaming Bobo, but I think it comes down to two things: (1) the inability to run the ball against good teams…which results in too many 3 and outs, our defense on the field too often, and bogs us down when we insist that we have to run for runnings sake rather than score for winnings sake”

      AMEN

  11. Derek

    I think the reason for the 6-6 record is due mainly to the fact that the competition was better: USC, Arky, MSU, Auburn were all much better in ’10 than anticipated by most.

  12. paul

    The combined records of the opponents Georgia beat this year was 24-47, the worst in the SEC. We beat exactly zero teams currently ranked in the top 25. We beat exactly zero teams who were ranked at the time we played them. Worst of all, Georgia didn’t win a single game this season against an FBS team with a winning record. The only other teams in the SEC who failed to do so were Tennessee and Vanderbilt.

    • Gen. Stoopnagle

      I was looking at Sagarin Ratings the other day w/r/t SMU-UCF. If UCF wins on Saturday and we play & defeat them in the Liberty Bowl, it will be our “best” win of the year according to that set of rankings.

      Currently, UCF is #51 and Tennessee is #54.

  13. Bryant Denny

    I think you can probably narrow it down to a handful of plays over the course of several games.

    Here are some things that come to mind:

    1) The fumble against Colorado.
    2) The Arkansas sack (ask the Mayor about that one).
    3) A play or two in the UF game and the result goes the other way.

    You also have to factor in Lattimore at SC and Newton at AU. IMO, these two guys make those games go from lopsided losses to toss-ups.

    Also, throw in AJ for the MSU game and who knows.

    There’s also the emotional make-up of the team that develops over the course of the season. For example, if MSU or UK had pegged AU, I think they would have lost a couple of more times this year. But, once they started winning, they gained confidence and refused to lose.

    Have a good day,

    BD

    • Mayor of Dawgtown

      +1. Also (4) the blown call by the refs on the fumble into the endzone by Ealey in the MSU game (when Ealey’s helmet came off the play, by rule, was automatically dead and therefore the ball could not be recovered by MSU) and (5) The fumble by Ealey in the South Carolina game when going in for the tying TD–if that doesn’t happen and the Dawgs score there the game is entirely different in the second half and, I think, the Dawgs win.

      • Bryant Denny

        Take away or turn differently those five plays and what kind of coaching job did Richt do?

        I’m glad Coach Bryant didn’t coach in this environment. He would have never made it through the lean years in the late 60s.

        BD

  14. thewhiteshark

    Too many penalties or turnovers at the wrong time early on gutted the season. I will say this they were pretty much in every game in the 4th quarter. That’s an improvement I can live with.

    After the 1-4 start how many folks actually thought they would finish 6-6?

  15. merk

    Go watch the Murray video…

    You will see why we had those first 3 losses. Murray was about 5 yards off on the deep ball. By the Fla game he was hittin em in stride every time.
    SC the Ealey fumble came on series with the play where Durham would have scored easily if the ball was 5 yards deeper.
    That is another reason not to fear the AJ/Durham gone next year thing. Murray had open receievers before Green came back, but he either did not see them or did not hit them in stride when they were open to make free TDs.
    Also how many DCs are gonna be watching game tape of Murray this season and thinking, “I do not want to put 9 in the box and give this kid 1 on 1 Coverage to pick apart.”

    • The Realist

      Also how many DCs are gonna be watching game tape of Murray this season and thinking, “I do not want to put 9 in the box and give this kid 1 on 1 Coverage to pick apart.”

      The running game will be much improved if this happens.

  16. Greg

    After jumping ahead 21-7, we got outscored by Auburn 49-31. I think that qualifies as an ass whipping. We lost every close game we played except Tech and we tried like hell to blow that game.

    Nothing wrong with trying to spin something positive out of this year. Our offense was good, especially when we got AJ back, but the defense is still a huge problem. Until we get that fixed, every game against any decent opponent(and some not so decent opponents) is going to come down to the wire and we’re going to win some and lose some in those scenario’s. Just so happened that we lost them all except Tech this year.

    • Hackerdog

      “After jumping ahead 21-7, we got outscored by Auburn 49-31. I think that qualifies as an ass whipping.”

      Instead of throwing out the first 28 points scored in that game, if you ONLY counted the first 28 points scored in that game, then we kicked Auburn’s ass. Although, now that I think about it, both of those exercises are pretty stupid. Never mind.

  17. Greg

    Should have said we got outscored by Auburn 42-10 after leading 21-7.

  18. UFTimmy

    Must be the turnover margi — oh wait.

  19. W Cobb Dawg

    I think the team lacks depth, strength and conditioning. The depth problem is primarily due to insufficient recruiting. CMR signs 18-20 players when the limit is 24. Off-season attrition is another depth-killer. We have trouble filling an 85 man roster – in Georgia?! Giving walk-ons, backup kickers and long-snappers a scholly feels good, but those guys aren’t in the trenches on gameday.

    Don’t know whether it’s Van Halanger or coaches, but our front line players on both sides of the ball get pushed around a lot.

    • 69Dawg

      Richt’s handling of scholarships has been puzzling for years. In the age of over signing we continually under sign. We can’t win games without the best talent in GA but the best talent seems to be headed out of state again after some years of keeping it. With FSU on the rise we are in deep dodo in South Georgia. Auburn will clean our clock in West Georgia and Bama just cherry picks the state. We will be hard pressed to improve our record if we can’t get the best.

      • Mayor of Dawgtown

        You forgot to mention that now that South Carolina appears to be on the rise you will see recruits from this state going East, also. UT has been a major presence in north Georgia and particularly the Atlanta area for years–and it looks like that is getting worse now, too.

  20. AthensHomerDawg

    Shit happens?

  21. LCDAWG

    Amen “gatriguy’ , Richt chose Garner of Van Gorder..it’s well known and has been a complete disaster!

  22. aious

    How? Easy…piss poor coaching