Putting a damper on Preseason Homerism

Call this a statistical course correction:

Okay, okay, it’s not impossible

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UPDATE:  More fleshed-out information here.  Here’s what he has to say about last year’s six-win teams:

6 Wins -Statistically, if your team is in this group, you have reason to be excited and look forward to the 2011 season.  Only 37 percent of the teams (out of 43) have gone on to a 5-7 or worse record coming off a 6-6 season.  One of these teams will likely be at 6-6 again and the rest 7+ wins are the best odds.  Of the 43, 3 of those teams went on to go 11-1 the following year.  They only one capable of that is Georgia, but the last two years of coaching effect go against the Bulldogs.  One of these teams will be at 4-8 or worse and put a coach on the hot seat for 2012, or get them released at the end of the season.

Teams Division/ Conference 2010 Wins 4 Yr. M.A Recruiting Rank
Georgia SEC E 6 6
Kentucky SEC E 6 45
Arizona State PAC12 S 6 36
Washington PAC12 N 6 24
BYU Indep 6 60
Clemson ACC – A 6 23
Georgia Tech ACC – C 6 46
Illinois Big Ten – Ldrs 6 40
Louisville Big East 6 44
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34 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

34 responses to “Putting a damper on Preseason Homerism

  1. lloyd christmas

    So you’re telling me there’s a chance.

  2. Lrgk9

    Pass the Kool Aide Please…

  3. TennesseeDawg

    Yeah but we’re different. Things are going to change I can feel it!

  4. simpl_matter

    That’s not too astonishing. Going 9-4 or 8-5 means you have to have a pretty magical season the next year to cut that curve (and I’d also guess the largest portion of the sample population was 8-5 or better). 7-6 and below is where you start getting more practical in expecting to win 4+ the following year. Would be interesting to see how many teams in that sample were 7-6 or worse (and what portion of the 5.7% who did win 4+ were also 7-6 or worse the previous season).

  5. You mean like Georgia in 2002?

  6. LD

    That kind of improvement is definitely unlikely… But note that Georgia and Mark Richt already has one of the teams in that 5.7%:

    2001: 8-4
    2002: 13-1

    If he’s improved by that much of a margin before, why can’t he do it again (and I’d guess it’s a good bit easier to go 10-3 than 13-1)?

  7. AthensHomerDawg

    More Phil please.

  8. AlphaDawg

    So you’re saying theres a chance!

  9. HK

    Misleading statistic.

    As in, 100% of teams with >10 wins can not improve by 4. Any team with 10 that improves by 4 must win the national title or be an undefeated non-BCS or the third undefeated BCS team like Auburn 04. Going up from 0 to 9 win teams, you have, on the 0 end, teams that are very very bad but which need only slight improvement to gain 4 wins the next year, and as you move up to 9 win teams, you have better teams, but which must have an increasingly large improvement to gain each win; as in improving from 0 to 1 wins doesn’t take much, but getting from the 4th to the 5th win is tougher, and the 5th to 6th even tougher and on up, but with a diminishing increase of % of wins for every extra win gained. I.e. the law of diminishing returns applies; you need more and more improvement for each additional win per season.

    So i’d like so see what % of 8-9 win teams improved by four, what % of 6-7 win teams, and what percentage of >6 win teams. That would be the more telling set.

    “5.7% of teams” is flawed and meaningless. This is the kind of statistic that must be broken down by group to really mean anything.

  10. HK

    correction, ” what percentage of >6 win teams.” should be <6

  11. Randall P. Floyd

    That’s like his opinion, maaannnn.

  12. Stoopnagle

    I wonder what the threshold for wins/accomplishments for ’11 is for Richt to be back in ’12? I know that if I’m feeling like this is make or break, then it must be because I’m not a doomsday type.

  13. I got dibs on Georgia Tech for the 4-8 team in the group!!!!

  14. 69Dawg

    OK Senator if your feeling too optimistic just lesson to some Munson for an hour and you will be adjusted. We’re too small, we’re too injured’ we’re too slow. we’re not deep enough, etc. etc.

  15. Go Dawgs!

    Then again, most teams that go 6-7 are pretty putrid. As the Senator’s pointed out many times over this offseason, there’s very little statistical explanation for UGA’s record other than our pitiful 3rd down defense. Georgia had some very real chances to close out more games and produce a better record last year. Not saying I predict a huge turnaround this year of 4 or more games, just saying it wouldn’t shock me. Georgia wasn’t as putrid last year as its record.

    • Soul crushing turnovers in the red zone and kicking field goals from the 1-foot line didn’t help either.

    • Mayor of Dawgtown

      Also bad coaching decisions, particularly near the end of games, contributed to the under-achieving season. Hopefully the staff has that out of its system. That said: “There is no cure for stupid.” Chinese Proverb

      • WH

        Way too often, logical decisions were plagued by terrible execution (penalties, turnovers, etc.). Frequently, questionable decisions were amplified in the same way.

        And sometimes, a dumb decision was covered by a poor execution on the opponent’s part or outstanding individual effort on our part. These were extremely rare.

  16. WH

    I just got a new LED LCD this Spring. I am afraid to watch the first two games of the season on it, because if UGA plays like they did last year, I’ll have purchased at least two more before October to replace the ones with remotes lodged in the screen.

    • By Georgia We Did It

      I did the same thing. Go ahead and watch some replays of last season’s games and you’ll already be past the “throwing things at your TV” mood by the time 2011 season rolls around. Good luck.

      • WH

        Plexiglass TV barrier installed. Women and children out of the house. Pets fitted with profanity guards. Commencing 2010 season replay.

        $%@#*!

  17. Mayor of Dawgtown

    Based on the recruiting rankings alone one would expect the team from the listed group that would succeed would be the Dawgs.

  18. Irwin R. Fletcher

    I’ve got a question….does that 5.7% include all teams or is that just teams who finished with 8 wins or worse? i.e. A 10 win team can’t win 4 games.