Could be bad, could be worse.

This is the most pessimistic preseason outlook about Georgia I’ve seen so far:

… Georgia has been a fairly popular pick to win the East, largely because they lucked into missing Bama, Arkansas and LSU from the West. However, Georgia was simply not a particularly good team in 2010, and they lost a lot in the draft (3rd most in SEC), and they only have 10 returning starters (including QB), and they had a +10 turnover margin in 2010 that is unlikely to repeat itself. That’s a lot of baggage to overcome if they want to make serious noise in the SEC. Like with Florida, it’s certainly possible, but it’ll be a tough road. And it’ll be an even tougher road to hit 9+ wins, as that target could be all but over before late September if they start 0-2. Don’t be stunned if this team has at least three losses before they play Florida (who usually beats them); Boise, South Carolina and Tennessee are all nasty tests, and both of the Mississippi schools are capable of pulling out a win.

There’s no question that if Georgia starts out 0-2, the bottom could fall out, relatively speaking (a 5- or 6-loss regular season).  But at this point, who the hell knows what’s going to happen out of the gate?

And I’ve got to say, if that computer model is so down on Georgia, it’s hard to see how it can be so positive about Tennessee, which has less depth (particularly on defense), worse special teams and a tougher conference schedule than do the Dawgs.  All I can come up with is inertia and how the last month of the 2010 season concluded for both schools.

About these ads

40 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, SEC Football, Stats Geek!

40 responses to “Could be bad, could be worse.

  1. The other Doug

    The East is Georgia’s to lose.

    We have the best team on paper. We will win or lose it depending on play calling and whether the players play with some heart.

  2. Skeptic Dawg

    Does USC still play in the East? Garcia, Lattimore, Jefferies, do those names ring any bells? The East is not ours to lose until we step up an actually beat a quality team, something we have failed to do in several years now.

    • The other Doug

      I think UGA has a better team on paper, but doesn’t play to their ability. Will that be fixed this year? Dunno.

      • Skeptic Dawg

        What position do the Dawgs have an advantage over USC? QB is a toss up, only due to Garcia’s experience. Murray is more talented, but lacks the experience. Other than that, the Dawgs are completely unproven across the board.

        • What position do the Dawgs have an advantage over USC?

          On paper right now? Tight end and special teams, for a start.

          • Skeptic Dawg

            You are correct. TE and ST do fall in our favor. However, OL, DL, WR, RB, LB go to USC as of today, and possibly DB.

            • Bad M

              Two problem with this eval:
              1. Football isnt played position vs position…WR vs. WR. Although still an unknown, our massive DL can go a long way to slowing down their RB. Murray can overcome the Adv at DB.
              2. Just because a player is unknown, doesn’t mean he is a worse player. The classic problem with preseason evaluations. Check out last years predictions of Auburn and Cam. Otherwise the service academies would win every game. Our WR’s are unproven, but I think they will be deeper than SC’s after the #1. Shut down Alshon, and we have the advantage. The loss of Gurlie will be huge for them.

          • HowlnWoof

            Tight end, indeed! I will be very disappointed if Richt and Bobo don’t come up with a scheme to use our extraordinary tight ends to compensate for question marks at OL, RB and WR.

            I think it could be very successful by loading up the strong side with two TEs and employing an H-back. This would create some gaps for Crowell and confuse the hell out of the defense creating pass opportunities for the TEs and WRs…BTW, I don’t claim any credit for this idea. I got most of it from this interesting but L O N G article.

            http://www.footballtimes.org/Article.asp?ID=218

        • Tduga1

          I agree with you about the entire team being unproven but I would take Murray over Garcia any day of the week. Much of Garcia’s experience consists of throwing interceptions, committing untimely fumbles, and making moronic decisions. His play against Bama was the only game last year that I was impressed with. He is just as likely to lose a game for you as he is to win it. I don’t think the same can be said about Murray.

  3. Nate

    I’m still baffled at the UT love. Maybe I’m just out of the loop, but that game doesn’t strike me as a particularly “nasty” test. Losable? Sure. But “nasty”? Not hardly.

  4. sUGArdaddy

    The 10 turnovers is very misleading. We were 0-6 in games in which we had a zero or negative turnover margin. We were 6-1 (with the only loss to national champ Auburn) when we had a positive turnover margin. Turnovers will be huge.

  5. Dog in Fla

    “And I’ve got to say, if that computer model is so down on Georgia, it’s hard to see how it can be so positive about Tennessee, which has less depth (particularly on defense), worse special teams and a tougher conference schedule than do the Dawgs.”

    Second year magic, http://aol.sportingnews.com/ncaa-football/story/2011-06-19/brian-kelly-jimbo-fisher-have-best-chance-to-keep-second-year-title-in-play

    Fulmer Cup, http://aol.sportingnews.com/ncaa-football/story/2011-07-24/tennessee-player-arrested-on-intoxication-charge

    and a restless mind http://www.aolnews.com/2010/10/26/derek-dooley-invokes-nazis-at-d-day-to-describe-tennessee-vols/

    Second year magic and hair like werewolf of London?

    • Cojones

      See today’s Hedges to Hardwood: Vegas Odds: Hilton release.
      The odds more than suggest 9+ wins.

      Think they’re dead wrong on Tenn.

      Hope we show teeth, hair and eyeballs like werewolves, unlike wherewolves.

      Football political question of the day: Think the Polly Sci Dept at FSU (recently endowed by the Koch brothers) will pick FSU for NC and Jimbo for President? No one wants the Gov to pick’em since he is below 22% favorable rating. I figure that’s consisting primarily of meth users.

  6. OKDawg

    Author claims UT will zoom past UGA, UF in SEC East this fall in part because of: “very low draft losses (Florida and Georgia lost far more).” Could it be that UT had fewer draft losses because they had less NFL talent?

    • Charles

      Was just thinking that. Where’s Vanderbilt in all of this? They’re sure to be a juggernaut…

  7. AthensHomerDawg

    Tennessee? Really? Georgia might lose to the Vols? Vols are on par with Boise and SC? Even though the mattresses are no longer burning in Knoxville that dumpster fire that has become UT football smolders still. Heck …basketball, baseball and track programs are starting to smolder as well. UT is heading for a few seasons of football not unlike Georgia after CVD and before CMR. One should bring up the comparison between Mike Shula at Alabama and young CDD at UT. As far as the better coaching acumen I give it to Shula. Yes CDD did Coach with Saban, but does anyone really think he is a young version of that coach. Alabama spent 10 years and 5 coaching changes wandering in the desert until at last Saban arrived. We are not losing in Neyland Stadium in 2011. No way no how. If we do lose I may be forced into listening to the Richtophobes and visiting their blogs again. Lord help me.
    Go Dawgs!

    • Stoopnagle

      I’ve heard that before. Unless our defense is nasty, then I’ll remain skeptical.

      • AthensHomerDawg

        I can respect that ….. I have read statements from skeptics before. At what point in the season might that skepticism disappear ?

  8. TennesseeDawg

    I don’t see all the UT love. They are desperately thin on defense especially at DL and LB and we all know what thin at DL will get you in the SEC. The chickens are the team to beat

  9. zdub

    Look guys, there would not be as much UT love (for our game) if the game was being played in Sanford in 2011. But it will be played in Neyland where we historically do not play well. That’s really the long and short of it.

    UT will upset a few teams this year. Don’t know when, don’t know who. But their young talent will show flashes of great play and oust someone that they shouldn’t. Maybe it will be UF (who they played very tough in 2010). Maybe it will be us. Who knows?

    We are beyond the point of thinking that our team is heads and tails better than anyone. Aside from the cupcakes we are not better than anyone until we prove it. BSU, SCe, UT, MS, MSU, UF, VU, KY, AU, and GT are all potential losses when a few years ago you would have laughed your head off at all of those being potential losses. You would have also laughed me out of the room if I told you we would lose to Colorado in 2010.

    We need to prove that we can beat these teams on the field, not just on paper.

    • Biggus Rickus

      If by historically you mean the last two times Georgia’s played there, sure. Richt pulled off a massive upset, a blowout and a comfortable win his first three trips.

      • zdub

        2009: 45-19 L
        2007: 35-14 L
        2005: 27-14 W
        2003: 41-14 W
        2001: 26-24 W
        1999: 37-20 L
        1997: 38-13 L
        1995: 30-27 L
        1993: 38-6 L
        1989: 17-14 L
        1980: 16-15 W

        (4-7-1) record at TN since Herschel began running over people. So Rickus, there you go, historical proof that we don’t play well in Knoxville. Richt had a great run between ’01 and ’05 in Neyland, but I think most of us would agree that our 2011 team is not as good as their ’01, ’03, or ’05 counterparts (You may be able to make the argument that we are better than the ’01 team, but that remains to be seen). Granted neither is TN, but they have home field advantage. So this game really will be a toss up as it stands right now; I’m sure some things will change before we actually meet on the field, though.

        • zdub

          Forgot to include the 17-17 Draw from 1968. Brings everything to 4-7-1 in Knoxville since 1968. Check for any errors or omissions here:

          http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/geo/sports/m-footbl/auto_pdf/year-by-year.pdf

        • AthensHomerDawg

          Allow me to retort:
          I appreciate effort but I’m throwing out the stats pre CMR.
          Neyland Hedges

          2001 W 26-24 2002 W 18-15
          2003 W 41-14 2004 L 19-14
          2005 W 27-14 2006 L 51-33
          2007 L 35-14 2008 W 26-14
          2009 L 45-19 2010 W 41-14
          Pick your poison…. there was a time after CMR back to back wins 2001,2002 where in 2003/2005 we won at Neyland and UT won Between the Hedges. And then in 2007/2009 UT started winning at home again…… and we (UGA) started winning at home. I contend that UT is in a trend not unlike the Dawgs found themselves in prior to CMR and Alabama experienced while wandering in the desert pre Saban….. none the less if I have to be branded a homer…. or a Richt-o-phile, ( is that even how you spell it ) then so be it. We ain’t losing in Knoxville 2011. NO WAY NO HOW!

        • Bad M

          Our main Achilles heal in Knoxville is now coaching at Duke. Did anyone watch last years game? Go ahead and give them the 3 point home field advantage.
          Boy they must have had one heck of a recruiting class to think they bounced so much from last year. (oh that was us?! Huh.)

  10. ConnGator

    Ya, not sure how the computer thinks UT and Aubie are so good. I put them both fourth in their divisions, perhaps fifth for the Tigers.

    • Mayor of Dawgtown

      UK has been better than UT in terms of personnel several times in the last few years but just can’t seem to beat them. It’s way past overdue for UK to beat UT and move up above them in the SEC East. I’m not sure if the personnel in Lexington is better than in K-ville this year though. As both appear weak but maybe UK can hand them the loss the Vols so richly deserve.

  11. Dawgaholic

    Only ten returning starters???
    Offense:
    AM
    TK
    OC
    BJ
    CG
    KG
    Defense:
    CR
    BB
    BS
    BR
    DT
    AJ

    I count 12 plus former starters and starters at other positions:
    AO, JA, RS, BF, and SW

    Our only first time defensive starters against Boise should be:
    John Jenkins & Jarvis Jones
    Our only first time offensive starters should be:
    Chris Burnette or whoever wins the RG battle and MB or whoever wins the other receiver position

    I’m guessing a computer program that takes into account returning starters may have missed a little. JH’s position is the only one that could be considered a downgrade on defense from last year. It is difficult to say that any position on defense is downgraded at all from last year but this analysis must have shown 5 or 6 new starters on D.

  12. Macallanlover

    Admittedly not a fan of pre-season polls, and don’t waste time arguing with them, but it was totally unnecessary for the disclaimer that the provided a warning that the selections should not be used for gambling purposes. If I were to ever rely on someone else’s advice it would not be CFN, or whomever programmed the criteria for that computer projection! Garbage in, garbage out.

  13. Senator, not to threadjack, but I know how you mentioned recently that you can always count on a StingTalk thread to provide some great humor. Thought this one might suit your fancy. Never underestimate the inferiority complex of a Tech fan.

    • Or overestimate the intelligence of one, either. “Visibly” give a player $1000 at a Dawg Walk? Yeah, sure, that’ll work.

      • Or overestimate the intelligence of one, either.

        I was thinking the same thing. For all the spouting off that Techies do about their intellectual superiority, they have the maturity of a five year old when it comes to pettiness/childishness towards UGA.

        • Dog in Fla

          They’re born that way. Because of their extreme intuition about all things mechanical, electrical and other social ineptitude, they cannot lead a normal life. They’ll be engineers

    • Cojones

      Like the number of letters he uses for rape or f*** in the threadline? He uses 5.

      So the player takes the money and gives it to his girlfriend near the end of the line. After the game she produces a threatening e-mail from the envelope traceable back to a numbnuts NATSchoolboy. Or a suggestive letter from the kid asking for a trist.

  14. Mayor of Dawgtown

    What do they say about computers? Garbage in–garbage out.

  15. W Cobb Dawg

    UGA’s season depends on young talent. There are plenty of top ranked recruits – Murray, Charles, Marlon Brown, Lynch, Ogletree, J. Jones, Jenkins, Geathers, etc. CMR seemed very happy to announce these names on past signing days. Time for all to deliver.