Second year’s the charm

When it comes to stats, I always prefer it when somebody else does the heavy lifting for me.

Such is the case with Year2′s look at the Georgia defense under Todd Grantham’s second year of direction.  It’s pretty frickin’ impressive:

… Here is how Georgia’s BCS conference opponents (plus Boise State) did against Grantham’s crew this season. The points are offensive points only; I did not include special teams scores, defensive scores, or safeties. Also, I did not include any stats accumulated against I-AA opponents.

Opponent Points PPG Diff. Yards YPG Diff.
Boise State 35 41.82 -6.82 390 477.6 -87.6
South Carolina 24 24.62 -0.62 395 366.5 28.5
Ole Miss 7 12.55 -5.55 183 277.6 -94.6
Mississippi State 3 20.73 -17.73 213 335.5 -122.5
Tennessee 12 17.82 -5.82 270 323 -53.0
Vanderbilt 21 22.55 -1.55 349 345.8 3.2
Florida 13 20.91 -7.91 226 323.4 -97.4
Auburn 7 19.27 -12.27 195 320.3 -125.3
Kentucky 10 13.82 -3.82 142 242.9 -100.9
Georgia Tech 17 31.00 -14.00 355 441.2 -86.2

Average Point Differential: -7.61

Average Yard Differential: -73.58

Grantham’s crew held every offense below its season average to some extent. He held eight of the ten under their yardage averages as well.

Actually, Year2 understates the case in one respect.  68 of South Carolina’s rushing yards came on that bloody Melvin Ingram fake punt (that if I hadn’t seen with my own eyes still wouldn’t believe had happened) and not against Grantham’s defense.  Take that out of the equation and only one team finished with a total offensive yardage amount over its season average against the Dawgs’ defense, Vanderbilt – and that was barely above.

That being said, I think Vandy was the one team this season which caught Grantham unprepared in one area, although to be fair, nobody saw Jordan Rodgers’ success as a runner coming that day.  Hell, he wasn’t even the starter.

So maybe one question we ought to be asking is whether LSU plays it straight on offense or whether the Tigers decide to throw Grantham a curve ball.  The stats suggest that the more they stick to the script, the better Georgia’s chances are to slow them down.

About these ads

27 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

27 responses to “Second year’s the charm

  1. fuelk2

    With that said, if we only hold LSU 8 points below its scoring average (38), we are f-u-c….

    • WF dawg

      If we match our greatest PPG differential (vs. MSU, approx. -18) and LSU’s avg. PPG is 38, that puts them at about 20. I could see our offense scoring 21-24, with a very strong showing. Stupid optimism, you just won’t go away.

      • The Lone Stranger

        I am convinced UGa CAN win the ballgame with 20 points, although the ‘hidden’ stats like net punting & kickoff yardage & 1st down success will have to go our way.

    • Sanford222View

      I assume that 38 points includes all scores not just from the offense? I think this chart is based upon offensive scoring only. Special teams and defensive scores are taken out.

      That is the big key in this game to me. Minimizing LSU’s points/yards on special teams and defensive scoring/turnovers. I think Georgia can hold its own straight up between offense versus defense. It is with special teams and crippling defensive take aways that LSU holds a big advantage.

      • Will (the other one)

        Yep. Offensively, what LSU did to Arky was a bit out of character for them. They didn’t have pretty yardage stats at all vs. Oregon, WVA, or Bama. The big keys for us are:
        1. Win the turnover battle…ideally, by not turning it over at all. LSU is really good at getting TDs off seemingly every INT or fumble they recover.
        2. Having the good UGA special teams show up.
        Do those things and we may be close enough to win it.

  2. dean

    I’m curious to see how our d-line handles their o-line. I like our chances of keeping it close with the depth we have (if Tyson can go) on the line and with the LB’s.

  3. NC Dawg

    Who knows? That’s why college football is such a great game to follow. Our defense is obviously our strong point, but is it strong enough to stop LSU. Outside of Boise, it’s looked pretty strong all year, and SC was still loaded when we played them. I keep hoping we can just keep it close, but who knows … UGA could even win this decisively. That’s what makes it exciting …

  4. Lrgk9

    One of the Docs here in town, a Bammer Fan, said he would buy me a car if UGA wins.

    So am looking for a $4,999.99 car so I can get in under the Georgia Parole Evidence rule.

    Under Alabama law, wouldn’t have to worry about it they have the Oral Contract no Parole Evidence rules (AKA Lawyer Relief rules).

  5. No One Knows You're a Dawg

    I’m concerned about them trying a hurry up offense, but I’m not sure LSU has the quarterback play to pull it off against Georgia.

  6. Puffdawg

    When is the last time we blocked a kick? That’d be nice on Saturday…

  7. BCDawg97

    I was gonna say it will come down to special teams, then I thought, well that and our offensive line, then I thought, well that and added our defensive line, then I thought, shit… it is gonna take a near perfect game from us in every phase and possibly a miscue or two from them. If we play them straight up, talent v talent, we probably lose 30-24. If we catch a break or two (and it still might take us playing lights out) we win 30-24.

    • WF dawg

      That’s a lot of points. I was thinking more like 20-17, with Walsh hitting a game-winning 50-yarder and being carried off the field a hero, RSIV hoisting the trophy while leaning on his crutches, and Mark Richt kissing Kathryn for about 2 minutes straight. I can see the confetti raining down now. Stupid, irrepressible optimism.

      • WF dawg

        Upon further reflection, I’ll side with Red: “Hope’s a good thing, probably the best of things. And no good thing ever dies.” I hope the confetti is as bright as it has been in my dreams. I hope.

        • BCDawg97

          This. No matter who’s right on the score (I will gladly take a 2-0 win on a phantom holding call in the endzone.)

          That’s why I’m going to the game. I wanna be there if we win. And if we lose, I wanna be there to celebrate the Dawgs. It’s gonna be a great day to be a Dawg no matter what!

          • Bevo

            “…Mark Richt kissing Kathryn for about 2 minutes straight.”

            I could probably make do without that part.

  8. stoopnagle

    My bet is that they don’t play it straight on offense, that Jefferson runs a bit more than usual. They are fond of running an occasional option play.

    The real worry isn’t our D versus their offense; it has to be special teams. Specifically their return game versus on coverage teams. It’s not unpossible for them to get all the points they need from ST and defense.

    We’re going to do a perfect game, etc etc.

  9. DB

    Why are Commings and Jones talking to the media and telling them that UGA is better on defense than LSU?

  10. Rebar

    I think this will all come down to our defense. With Tyson out, we might be a little weaker, but Grantham has already shown he knows how to hit a curve ball! If our defense plays with ferocious tenacity, we can win it, of that I have no doubt.

  11. Bevo

    No wonder Grantham was pissed after the Vandy game.

  12. Ugagal85

    Perfection isn’t necessary, just progress. Progress in the running game and in the kicking game. Let’s face it, both have been Jekyll and Hyde-type propositions all year. BUT WE’VE STILL WON!! If we can run the ball well, keep down the return yardage, guard against trick plays and hit medium-to-long range field goals, we have a good chance to win.

    And for the record, I’m not bothered by the Jarvis Jones’ comments about his defense. Remember, this is a guy who is a finalist for the Butkus Award. Does LSU have a dog in that hunt? Nuff said.