Keeping the SECCG close

In his SECCG forecast, Phil Steele hits on something that reflects back on an earlier post of mine today:

… These two have six common opp’s TY and have had similar results with LSU going 6-0 outscoring foes on avg 38-7 (+192 ypg) while UGA is also 6-0 outscoring foes 27-12 (+184 ypg).

Despite only eight yards difference in per game net, LSU won its games by an average margin of 31 points, while Georgia’s scoring margin was less than half that.

Special teams and turnover margin are huge, huge things this Saturday.  Hugely huge.

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53 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, Phil Steele Makes My Eyes Water, SEC Football

53 responses to “Keeping the SECCG close

  1. Also, I think it has a lot to do with LSU’s defense able to take a few pick-6′s to the house. We, on the other hand, only have one (Rambo’s against Auburn). We take a couple of ours to the house against those 6 common opponents, I see even more parity.

  2. Go Dawgs!

    If Georgia pulls an upset on Saturday, and it would absolutely be an upset, I get the feeling that the national media is going to be shocked while Georgia fans will just sorta nod and say, “see?”

    • timphd

      Best outcome for Georgia is a close win. A big blow out win and all the national media will excuse it and say “LSU didn’t come to play”. A close win that shows that LSU DID come to play but were beaten anyway will be harder to excuse. I am hoping the Dawgs win 20-17 or something like that. A giant blow out would work against them IMO.

      • Go Dawgs!

        If it’s close, then it needs to be a case of the teams trading shots the whole way. If Georgia jumped out to a 21 point lead only to win 21-17, everyone would talk about how LSU didn’t come to play, but would have beaten Georgia anyway if they hadn’t run out of time.

        Of course, I don’t really care what people say about the game. I just want to win the damn thing.

        • timphd

          A win is a win, I’m with you on that.

        • Macallanlover

          GoDawgs, and your example is exactly what happened to UGA against WVU in the Super Bowl. I don’t think it was a case of the coaches not getting the players up, I always thought it was the hangover/euphoria of the players from the LSU blowout combined with the Sugar Bowl being in Atlanta. Had we gone to New Orleans instead of Atlanta for the 3rd consecutive game, it might have hit the players that Sugar Bowls are special. But as you said, I always rationalize that loss as the one we gave away by spotting them 4 TDs. (And, once again, we fell for a damned fake punt.)

      • aristoggle

        I hope it’s not too close. I drink too much when I get nervous. And, then my wife gets all pissy about it and … well, let’s just say it ends badly.

        • timphd

          I fixed that problem with a divorce.

          • JRod1229

            +1.. and I am a straight alcoholic during close games..

            • Cojones

              I’ll drink to that!

              My problem is during the game in bad moments, I’ll stomp out the door with the ‘Nesians words ringing in my ears,”Rake the yard while you’re out there!…and take your damn crutches with you. I’m tired of looking at the bad spots where you drag your leg”.

          • Ben

            I don’t know where y’all are finding your wives. My wife and I watch every game together, and then our conversations over the week center around what we’ve read here and at Dawg Sports. Marrying the girl I went to every ballgame in school with has worked out pretty well for us.

            • Junkyard Dawg '00

              Give it some time. Then the kids come and she automatically thinks they should take precedence over UGA football. Hard to break ‘em on that one.

              • Ben

                We’ve got two kids, and she’s told the one who keeps saying, “Roll Tide!” that he’s not going to college if he doesn’t clean his act up. Can’t say I disagree with that one. Thanks, though, for the words of encouragement…

            • aristoggle

              It’s not the women, it’s my relationship with bourbon. On our second date, we snuck into the press box to watch the game. She just likes for me to remember the game when it’s over.

              Not like the old days when we watched the Vince Dooley Show to see what happened in the second half.

      • Brandon

        The national media will find some way to discount a Georgia win no matter what so I personally would love to see a blowout, though I think the odds of that are about 1 in a million, though as in Dumb in Dumber at least that’s a chance.

        • Mayor of Dawgtown

          If we keep winning they will all of a sudden jump on our bandwagon. If they do not and the public decides that we really are good, then the media loses credibility which is something they cannot have happen.

      • Bad M

        Just win. “They” win find a way to say our opponent is weak, no matter what. I used to get bored with blowouts. I’ve since come to thoroughly enjoy them.

  3. timphd

    ESPN has an interesting take on the SECCG from a refs perspective. Tried to copy the URL into this reply but it wouldn’t work. Go to ESPN college football page and look for Ryan McGee’s blog called Field Level View of Championship Game. An SEC ref is pretty positive about the Dawgs. And yes I know that ESPN is the Devil.

    • James Stephenson

      That is behind the pay wall.

      • timphd

        Sorry about that. The unnamed ref basically says that these Bulldogs aren’t the ones people saw against Boise and USC, and that they are a much better team than people think. He says the key to beating LSU is to get the Honey Badger going and playing undisciplined which gets the entire secondary off their game. Says that the Honey Badger is prone to that. He says, while McCarron wasn’t ready to take advantage of that, Murray and the Georgia offense can. Doesn’t say they will win, just that they have a much better shot than most people think. Good short read.

        • Skeeter

          Hmmm, so all this jawing between the defenses might be part of Evil Richt’s plan?!

          Maybe we can score a few touchdowns while the Honey Badger is groggy from the cobra bite.

          • Cojones

            Or the sedative shot during the pileup ala the movie “Mash”.

            • aristoggle

              Fabulous! What a reference! Here’s a clip for you, mi amigo.

              69 is divine … perhaps this is foreshadowing for the “Honey Badger.”

              • Cojones

                Thanks and it does bring back memories of the Army. On a manuever in Alaska, circa 1965, we had a party in the field at the conclusion. We invited our Canadian partners in our support group and the supporting MASH unit. We furnished grain alcohol screwdrivers, the Canadians showed up with all the Canadian Club we could drink and the MASH Colonel showed up with a few doctors along with 3 ambulances filled with all the female nurses we could….Anyway, a good time was had by all until about 3:00AM when they were leaving, we couldn’t find the Colonel. Finally found him in one of our ward tents where he had crawled into an oversized Arctic sleeping bag, barfed and then crawled lower. The doctors took care of him after the nurses had taken…..well it is a true story w/o my usual hyperbole. The movie wasn’t that far from reality when you are far,far away.

  4. Some “Truisms”.
    The better team does not always win. See the Dawgs VS, USCe.
    In the SEC, On any given Saturday,Etc. See Auburn Vs. USCe.
    I would not be surprised to see an LSU blowout; say 34 to 17.
    But, this old, biased, loyal, avid Dawg Fan still predicts the upset.
    My Pick: Dawgs 17 ; LSU 16…

  5. UGLYDAWG

    All of those stats also overlook Georgia’s situation at running back. The offensive stats would have been better with the A running game factored in. With “fill in” running backs, as good as they were, the passing game was a little pinched….as great as it has been! Just imagine having it all this Saturday!
    With a healthy Crowell, it makes the passing game SO much better and it also means Murray gets a little less attention and may
    I don’t believe LSU has seen a team that can do so much. Also, Boykin ain’t a bad return man either….GO YOU HAIRY DAWGS!!! HUNKER’UM DOWN!

  6. Turd Ferguson

    So many of LSU’s games this year have played out in basically the same way: It’s relatively close for 2-3 quarters, and then LSU just pulls away, as the other team is simply too beaten, bruised, and fatigued to stay with them. If we can challenge them for a full 4 quarters as Alabama did, I’ll be damned proud, no matter the outcome.

    • Junkyard Dawg '00

      Great point. Obviously a win is what you play for, not moral victories but give ‘em hell for 60 minutes and you can be proud of your effort against the # 1 team in the country. And going into next year with this young squad…

    • The Lone Stranger

      Yup, I figure we’ll discern the proof from the pudding per the revamped conditioning program as this game rolls toward its finish.

  7. “Hugely huge.”No Senator it’s huger than that.

  8. Smitty

    Off topic but what is the ALCOHOL policy at the SEC Championship game? Other than early and often.

  9. Russ

    Special teams worry me, but that does seem to be something we’ve shored up as the season has moved along, with the glaring exception of Walsh’s troubles. I think we can avoid the long returns and such, and I’d love to see Walsh kick a long one to win it at the buzzer.

  10. Boss Dawg

    Don’t forget about the wheel route!!!! Preach about it Grantham!!!!

  11. CLT Dawg

    Last time we were talking trash like this we got beat down by Bama…I know it was Willie, but I’m not thrilled about it. Like the confidence, but do your talking with your play.

  12. Spence

    Dear Lord please don’t let this game come down to special teams.

  13. Always Someone Else's Fault

    LSU had numerous blown assignments on delayed routes against Alabama, one of which would have been an easy TD if McCarron had not locked onto the fade (which was also open but poorly thrown). Maybe they’ve corrected that – I did not watch the Ark game.

    Georgia can win, and if they do, it’s definitely LSU-Okie State in MNC game, with Georgia to the Sugar and Bama to wherever. That assumes OSU wins. If not, they’ll jump VaTech into the 2nd spot.

    Groundswell against Tide among media types an impressive thing to watch.

  14. G Marmalard

    Obviously lsu will win, but if by some miracle they don’t then clearly they were just looking ahead and didn’t “really” lose to uga. Espn has decided. I’m surprised lsu has to suffer the indignity of even playing this game, since it’s an automatic win. They should just rest their first string like CBS suggests .

    I hope we whip their smug a$$es