Does Georgia have the horses?, part three

If you follow through Year2′s statistical analysis,

… I determine on average how each team’s offense and defense perform relative to their opponents’ season averages. For instance, Georgia scored 31.73 points per game this season. Its opponents allowed on average 25.08 points per game. So, Georgia scored 6.65 points per game more than the average team would have against the same schedule.

I did the same thing for both points and yards for Georgia’s defense and LSU’s offense and defense. When you combine those figures with the teams’ season averages, you actually get two different score and yardage projections. For instance, take LSU’s offensive average of 37.18 and subtract Georgia’s defensive average of allowing 6.02 points per game less than opponents average and you get LSU scoring 31.16 points. But then, take Georgia’s defensive average of allowing 19.36 points per game and add the 13.65 points per game that LSU averages above what its opponents allow and you get the Tigers scoring 33.01 points. I average the two projections in each category together then to get the final results.

… here’s where you wind up.

At the very end of the process, I have LSU defeating Georgia 32-17 with the Bulldogs outgaining the Tigers 321-319. Such an outcome isn’t out of the realm of possibility given that LSU was outgained in each of its wins against Oregon, West Virginia and Alabama. These projections suggest that Georgia will hold its own, but the better team will come out ahead in the end.

To me, they suggest something else.  Look at these stats from the three wins he cites:

  • Turnover margin:  Oregon +3; West Virginia +4; Alabama 0
  • LSU FGs made/attempted in those three games vs. opponents’ FGs made/attempted:  LSU 5/6; opp. 4/8

There’s a lot of hidden yardage in those LSU scoring figures.  Georgia has to avoid giving LSU those extra/wasted opportunities to have a decent shot.

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42 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

42 responses to “Does Georgia have the horses?, part three

  1. DawgPhan

    So no turnovers and make FGs and we win this game. nice.

    • gastr1

      How about also no major ST mistakes against a team that generally has an ST advantage? Our inability to avoid handing out opportunities is why I am afraid we are likely to lose about like year2 says. Our D may only give up 10 points but the scoreboard may well still read “32.”

  2. Skeptic Dawg

    Speaking of horses, is there any truth to the rumor that IC will be benched again this weekend due to attitude? Dawgs need to be able to run (or at least attempt to run) to have a real shot Saturday.

    • Bevo

      IC isn’t making any new friends in the Georgia locker room right now. Unfortunately, this is far from new and is not an isolated case.

      Hopefully the RB position settles down a bit more after this season, but I’m afraid we’ll once again be looking to freshmen for hope. I trust the next in line will be more mature and ready for it.

      For now, I just hope IC can turn the corner. It’s getting late.

      • Bevo

        Also… I guess we have a pretty good feel for the limitations of the Lattimore vs Crowell comparisons at this point.

      • Skeptic Dawg

        So, you believe he will not play Saturday, nor in the future for the Dawgs? Where did you get this info? Or is it merely your opinion? I have only heard rumors, but can not find anything to support said rumors. I really hope he plays Saturday. The Dawgs need him for this one.

        • Bevo

          Not saying either one. There are just a lot of uncertainties right now.

          • DawgPhan

            so what is the story with IC or is it just “some stuff might or might not have happened to someone or something” type of internet rumor.

          • Macallanlover

            I agree with Bevo, but like him it is not first-hand knowledge. We have all been reading the tealeaves on this much-anticipated “star” all season long. It isn’t a stretch to say he needs an attitude adjustment based on his actions on the sidelines, and off the field. I would hate to see him waste his talent/potential and end up like Washaun, but some players don’t mature enough to realize this until it is too late.

            I am not going to fight it, or waorry about it because I have no control over it, or ability to influence it. You hope that someone who cares about him will break through and reach him, but he is already one year into a career at UGA where everyone should be ecstatic over him, but that just isn’t so. You never have a discussion that involves his name with a UGA fan that doesn’t come back around to the issue of how dedicated he is to playing to his potential, or playing for his team. That may be dead-on, or just partially right, but either way he had better man up because not only is it costing him now, it will cost him big money in the future….both in, and out of the NFL. This approach has been a disaster for others, and he hasn’t shown any reason why it will be any different for him.

            We will have adequate running backs next season with, or with out him. I hope it is with him, but he needs to step onto the stage this Saturday and show us what Act 2 will look like. UGA has to have a back they can depend on every game, and he hasn’t been that guy yet. Big things are ahead the next two years for UGA football, he could use that as a springboard to whatever he desires in the future.

            • adam

              Thankfully things look great with both Marhsall and Gurley. Hopefully, Crowell will take that as incentive to group up and compete. I’d hate to see someone with his obvious talent fail.

              He has had a promising (though injury-riddled) first season. Once he gets his mind right, he should be a real force. Having some competition should push him one way or the other.

              • Mayor of Dawgtown

                Some of the things I have seen on the sidelines concern me, too. That said, Crowell came out of high school and went straight to playing college ball without a redshirt season or even coming in early and getting a spring practice in. He was the featured back at one of the top HS programs in the state and rarely played a whole game in HS as his team usually won big and he was out of the game early in the second half. He is not used to playing a full game and against the type of competition he sees in the SEC on defense. Give the kid a year of conditioning to get in real shape to play in the SEC and a spring practice. Then we’ll see if he can cut it or if he is another Ealey. I hope he turns out to be great. If not, there are plenty of good backs in next year’s HS graduating class coming out.

        • Bevo

          I hope he plays too, and I guess he still probably will. At least one of the beat writers has acknowledged that IC still has some growing up to do and there have been setbacks recently. It’s no secret. At this point, the choice is still his.

          • DawgPhan

            So at this point you have nothing to add. gotcha.

            • SuperBro

              Chill bro.

              As a wise bro once said: “go spend $9.99 a month to subscribe to a UGA football website if you want a faster scoop on rumors and news. and you shall find nirvana.”

              • gastr1

                If you were that Super you would be a “Bra,” not a “Bro.”

                Just sayin.’

              • Cojones

                Besides selling rumor mills, do you have any vetted info to tell us lower-than-nirvanas, SuperBro? I’m sure that everyone on here could pay the $10, but have eschewed paying because info affecting their team shouldn’t be for sale. After all, this is a state supported school. Anything other than rumor ought to be available to the public.

                All it takes is one unscrupulous site to start rumors to gain membership and money in their pocket. If it doesn’t pan out, what are they going to do, demand their money back? Fat chance.

    • Go Dawgs!

      I sincerely doubt that there’s anything to that. Watching the replay of the Tech game on Saturday, there certainly didn’t appear to be any issue between IC and his teammates. People just like to run this kid down for some reason. Richt hasn’t said a single even slightly dim thing about Isaiah all year, and he hasn’t been very shy about commenting on “energy vampire” RB’s in the past. I think IC plays and plays well on Saturday, as long as the ankle cooperates.

      • Bevo

        I agree with you that things are often blown out of proportion. I too think and hope that IC plays on Sunday and I really, really hope he plays well.

        I would maybe beg to differ on your point that Richt hasn’t said “a single thing even slightly dim” about IC all year.

        Richt on the RBs:

        “I don’t want to talk about tailbacks,” Richt said. “I was in a good mood until you asked that. No more tailback questions until after the game.”

        http://www.ledger-enquirer.com/2011/12/01/1839257/georgia-football-notes-isaiah.html

        • Go Dawgs!

          Was that about Isaiah Crowell specifically? Because we’ve had a lot of trouble from the position, including one tailback (not IC) who was suspended twice this year. Could it be frustration over nagging injuries, etc? He didn’t say anything there about Crowell’s conduct. People are reading in what they want to see.

          • BCDawg97

            Both – the general drama of the position and a particular incident with a particular player in practice. A knowledgeable source on a pay site reported the story

            • Skeptic Dawg

              Ok, finally got the scoop. Thanks to everyone for your 2 cents worth. IC was hammered by a member of the scout team on Tuesday. No sign of injury, other than his pride. Wednesday he shows up with a green non contact jersey. When told to work with others in green he refuses to do so. No word from the staff on a possible suspension.

              • What the hell is up with the Isaiah bashing ? Did this kid or did he not win Freshman of the week 4 times this year? (Sorry sarcasm b/c the answer is yes).Have any of the people making these posts questioning IC’s desire ever had a 300lb plus lineman fall on their ankle. I know for a fact that some sprains are worst than certain hairline breaks. Please give a 18/19 yoa kid a break. Even the scoop doesn’t make anything clear to me. Does not wanting to work out with the others in green mean he didn’t want to work or did it mean he wanted to get in the scrimage and didn’t want to be sidelined. He might just as easily been saying he was prepared to tough it out and wanted to play. Even a teenager knows this game is why he came to UGA and I don’t think he wants to miss it.

                • Spock

                  It doesn’t seem logical that IC would “want” to miss the SECCG against the #1 team in the nation does it? That is exactly why football players play–to play in games like that.

                  • Cosmic Dawg

                    I was serious above – if you aren’t on deck in 6 minutes this ship flies itself, and I don’t care where it ends up.

                • Macallanlover

                  jd, you are way off base here. The posters being critical are not “bashing”, and everyone sharing information on this site is hopeful he grows up and becomes a success. IC has been his own worst enemy and needs straight talk. No one posting on this site peed in his speciman cup, no one here pushed away his closest “advisors” when they tried to tell him he was screwing up, and certainly no one here is responsible for things getting so bad other players had to have an “intervention”.

                  Stop being naive. With any luck IC will grow up, be a man, and stop acting like a 12 year old punk. With a change in his approach to adulthood, he has an excellent chance to succeed in life. If not, I don’t care if the coaches sit him this week and pack his bags over the holidays. Stop with the pity party, that is the last thing he needs now, he has been coddled enough, and that is obviously not working. The needs of this team and program far exceed that of a person determined to piss into the wind. It isn’t the team in the wrong here, IC needs to row with this group; they have worked too hard to get to this game.

                  • Cosmic Dawg

                    I agree with all of this. 100%. I’ve been rooting for IC as has everyone else here, and I certainly don’t fault him for being injured.

                    At the same time, everyone is also disposed to give the kid the benefit of the doubt, yet the same stories of bad attitude keep popping up, and we’ve even seen it from time to time just watching him on TV, bucking CMR and mouthing off to other players.

                    If anyone thinks we’re being unfair, ask yourself why M. Mitchell, Jones, Bennett, Gilliard, et al aren’t also being “targeted”. If the problem is persistent, I’d much rather see any bad egg kicked off the team, whether it hurts our short term chances or not.

                  • Spock

                    The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few–or the one.

                  • Cojones

                    Mac, not sure if I’ve ever disagreed with your postings(not saying I read them all completely because, by skimming through sometimes , I find that you are writing succinctly what my thoughts are.

                    In this case I think you have taken jdjrip’s words similar to the way that ahole Cojones does from time to time. jdjrip makes a good and valid point because early on , even before the season started there were those trolls and others who spewed negativity before Crowell ever set foot on our field.

                    Now you have mentioned a couple of things that I have been unaware of and since your reputation is one of DGD, I have clarifying questions.Please excuse my naivete, but what “closest advisors” and what “team intervention” do you allude to? I should say, “excuse my ignorance” because I am unaware of these things.

  3. charlottedawg

    So basically lsu throttles people with big defensive turnovers and special teams plays. Another reason offensive and defensive yardage are such deceptive stats. my wvo co-worker kept saying “but we got 500 yards of offense!!” to which i replied “they don’t keep track of yards on the scoreboard”..

  4. Bevo

    Good post, Senator B. I can’t disagree with your bottom line analysis.

  5. Special Teams Play MAY be the deciding difference in this game.
    The Dawg.s Offense may have a slight advantage. LSU’s Defense may have a sliight advantage.Turnovers & Special Teams May decide this game.

  6. jryu

    evidently according to TJ Carpenter, we shouldn’t even play this game. it’s a guaranteed loss. i read this article and thought, “wow, this guy is extreme..” and then i read his credentials and where he writes for:

    http://cfn.scout.com/2/1134535.html

    nothing but a bunch of butt-hurt.

    • Cojones

      TJ Carpenter can go suck a big….lemon. They have always played the game on the field and any uber description of LSU doesn’t mean shit to the kids who have worked themselves to this point of the year. He is describing LSU players as being not of the same world as Ogletree, J Jones, Gilliard, Murray, Mitchell, King, Conley, Charles, Herrera, Robinson and others who have athletic capabilities that Carpenter seems completely unaware of. Name a player on Arky’s D and what has that D rating been? Having great receivers at Arky means that they have the same combinations that we have ? Hell, no. Just means that they have been around longer and had more print written about them. These freshmen will get their due in the media in the future, but that doesn’t diminish what they have achieved to this point and who they are. More to follow.

  7. BR Dawg

    Senator, Can we get an article with the header ” Does LSU have the horses”?

  8. Go Dawgs!

    Don’t look now, but Mark Bradley’s got a really well-written tribute to Munson up at the A-Jay-Cee. It’s his imagining of Munson’s call of Saturday’s game. It’s really well done.

  9. fuelk2

    As referenced above, LSU also scored TDs on special teams against Oregon and WVU. Not only does that give you 7 points, it also takes away an offensive possession and gives it back to the other team, which might explain part of the yardage deficit.

  10. HamDawg11

    There are a lot of “keys” to the game for UGA to pull off the upset, but I think it starts and ends with our running game. If we can’t run effectively, then it all falls apart from there. They won’t respect the pass, offense will stall, our D will be on the field all day.

    Not a good formula for a W.

  11. Cojones

    I read this to say we are all doubtful in the back of our minds and this doubt is no doubt coming from media articles. Before continuing, I want everyone to review what YOU saw in the LSU televised games. Compare their D in the Bama game where Bama passed on their ass and gained chunks. Murray is better than McCarron. But I digress.

    Arky was given more press about their team than the abbreviated shit spewed anywhere about the Dawgs and their individual players. Bama has the best RB in the land and his paucity of yards didn’t mean crap when the passing game made headway. Media writers are matching negatives to negatives in lauding LSU like they just discovered these guys have been eating Superman’s terds (sorry for the reference, Turd) of leftover kryptonite. Never seen so many media guru’s trying to bash a team into submission before the game is played ; done in order to get into our team’s head in order to make their predictions come true.

    I confess that in the back of my mind, I’m no better than most of you in preparing for a negative outcome. But I have a proposition: Let’s project ourselves into the minds of our team’s kids playing the game and say,” Fuck you. We put on our pants the same way they do. We will show you what we have on the field, not to prove anyone wrong, but because, by God, we are Georgia Bulldogs and we don’t take shit from anyone nor do we bow to another team’s exploits. After it’s over, you can write about who won or lost.”

    This I ask in order that we identify closely with team feelings, win or lose, but mainly to closely identify ourselves with this great bunch of kids as Dawg fans led to this point by men who have remained optimistic about themselves and their coaches.