Bill Connelly, on today’s match up:
It is easy to assume that Georgia wasn’t a very good team when they began the season 0-2, then they improved as they knocked off a relatively weak final 10 games of the season. This is not necessarily true. They ran into a buzzsaw in week one against Boise State (perhaps nobody in the country would have beaten the Broncos that day), and they encountered a healthy amount of bad luck in losing to South Carolina the next week. The signs were there from the start — if chemistry and effort were not damaged by the poor start, the wins were going to roll in.
The goal of Adj. Points is to determine how a team would have performed against a perfectly average opponent, and the graph above shows that the Dawgs would have gone 11-1 if playing said average opponent each week. Their propensity for sitting on the ball in the second half (once they had built a decent lead) held them down a bit, especially in the middle portion of the season (Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Tennessee), but both the offense and defense have spent most of their season on the healthy side of national averages.
Of course, LSU has still been better. But we already knew that.
There are lots of other good points Bill brings up there. His bottom line isn’t unexpected. For Georgia to win today, it’ll to have to win the double positive battles. Given that LSU sports the nation’s best turnover margin, that’s going to take some work.