Throwing a few numbers against the Outback Bowl wall and seeing what sticks

I just thought I’d mention in a very preliminary sort of way some stats and such to start getting ready for Tuesday’s Monday’s game.  In no particular order, here goes:

  • The computers see the game as a pretty even match up. Sagarin has Georgia 18th and Michigan State 19th (although he likes MSU more when you factor margin of victory into the equation).  Smart Football’s SRS has the Spartans at 15 and the Dawgs at 16.  The F+ ratings at Football Outsiders have a little more spread, but not much:  MSU ranks 10th and Georgia 14th.
  • The defenses are even; Georgia has a slight advantage in the offensive yardage stats.  In total defense, you’re looking at the third and fifth best teams in the country.  But Georgia ranks 37th in total offense, quite a bit higher than MSU’s showing at 60th.
  • However…  Despite the spread in total offense, when it comes to scoring offense, the teams are quite close, with only three spots in the rankings separating the two.  How come?  Patrick Garbin is happy to give you an answer to that question.  This in particular should make you uneasy about Georgia’s chances:  “This season, Michigan State has averaged 24.3 yards per kickoff return (15th in the FBS), 11.2 yards per punt return (25th), and has scored SIX touchdowns via return.”
  • No edge in turnover margin.  Interestingly, both schools are tied in that statistical category.

More thoughts to come…

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28 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

28 responses to “Throwing a few numbers against the Outback Bowl wall and seeing what sticks

  1. Zdawg

    The game is on Monday good sir.

  2. its all part of the plan to see if we can get Sparty to not show up until Tues ..,mums the word

  3. Chuck

    Special teams are a definite concern, but otherwise, our stats, being SEC stats, are not equal to theirs, IMO. I’ll be disappointed if we don’t win, and a little disappointed if it’s a close win.

  4. 69Dawg

    Coach Richt is about to get yet another example of why his neglect of Special Teams is another bit of OJT he is having after 11 years on the job. He may be the best untrained HC in CFB. IF he could just get that pesky depth issue on the O-line fixed before he retires or I die I would appreciate it. I live down here with all these Damn Yankees and it’s making me snarky.

  5. Slaw Dawg

    Maybe it comes from growing up with Vince Dooley and Larry Munson, but the Special Teams thing has me worried sick. In fact, I think it all comes down to this: will Georgia’s Offense be able to score enough points to offset the number of points we’ll give away/fail to earn on Special Teams or due to Special Teams errors? We’ll contain their Offense pretty well, I think–probably won’t give up more than 10 points on drives that start on their side of the field. But giving them a short field and/or ST TDs and/or missed field goals could be what gives Sparty the win. We may kill them in yardage stats and lose on the scoreboard. I also give them a slight edge in intangibles–I think they’re sick to death of all the SEC breast beating, esp. after last yr’s Bama beating. I’m not calling it that way (yet), but I don’t feel confident about this one, either.

  6. Ytgold

    Uga is o annd 8 vs ranked teams since 2009

  7. charlottedawg

    I hope Georgia shows up to play 60 minutes of big boy football because MSU is a very good team that is going to be pissed off and looking to make a statement against an sec team. If Georgia brings their A game they’re going to win a thriller; mail it in and the meme of “they can’t beat a real team” will continue.

    • Russ

      Could be, but I think Sparty will have a let down. They were prepared to play in the Rose Bowl, and when that didn’t happen, that took a lot of wind out of their sails. Two closely matched teams, but I think we’ll take it.

      Oh, and I think special teams will be a non-issue in this game. It has gotten Richt’s full attention, and I think the changes will happen starting with this game.

  8. Ytgold

    Over and under on murray making 3 turnovers?

  9. so don’t kick them…I’ll take 39 yds and out of bounds on punts is fine and as much as it kills me to say this remember the sky kick ,kick-offs from the Martinez days ,yes they sucked but they were not returned. Even a broken clock is right twice a day ,maybe, and it is unlikely as it may be ,maybe Willie had a reason for those pop[-up kick-offs.

  10. and thank you,” directional kicking” was the term I was struggling for,.