Lies, damned lies and Georgia’s 2010 football season

I’m becoming convinced that the only losing season of Mark Richt’s career is something from which you can’t use statistics to glean any insight.

In fact, I think it’s getting to the point where you can use it as a rebuttal to almost any statistical argument (“Oh, yeah?  What about 2010 Georgia?”)

Take Matt Melton’s well-researched look at Phil Steele’s “turnovers + turnover” point (more accurately turnover margin).  Melton breaks down the turnover margin of every D-1 conference team in conference play over a four-season period and looks at how a team coming off a significant turnover margin performance does in the following season.

He finds thirty-five teams which compiled turnover margins in conference play of minus-10 or greater.  Only five of those teams saw their conference records decline in the following seasons, one of those being Georgia in 2010, of course.

Here’s the chart he made of those teams in BCS conferences:

I guess we can thank Ole Miss, at least.

What a weird year it was.  Don’t do that again, fellas.

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12 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

12 responses to “Lies, damned lies and Georgia’s 2010 football season

  1. Biggus Dickus

    The 2010 team lost games because of idiot decision making on offense particularly at or near the end of the game. In the Arkansas game with less than 2 minutes to go, UGA has the ball at the 50, third and 5, a first down wins the game–the call? A slow developing pass play with the best Arkansas defender (DE Bequette) being blocked by a back (Washaun Ealey) who whiffs on the block, Murray gets ear-holed and the Dawgs have to punt. 2 plays later Arkansas scores on a long pass–game lost. In the Colorado game the Dawgs have possession with 30 seconds to go at about the Colorado 30, positioning for a field goal to win (a no score and Colorado wins)–the call? A draw play when everybody in the stadium knew that the back was going to get the ball. The back (Caleb King) gets hit as soon as he touches the ball by multiple defenders and fumbles. Buffalos win. After the game the Colorado defensive players were interviewed and all of them said that they ignored the pass fake because they knew the back had to get the ball in that situation. Want more? The WLOCP game–Well, you get the picture. Who was responsible for this? I’ll leave it up to you guys to figure that out.

    • Because of BOBOlicious.

    • Alphadawg

      I’m no big Bobo basher but this is a true story. I had the pleasure of sitting next to 2 cute coeds during the Boise game (short black skirts, red tank tops, and cowboy boots) neither were old enough to drink. It was late in the 3rd or early 4th qtr, and it was 3rd and 15 or so. Coed on the left turned to the coed on the right and said “If this is a draw up the middle we’re leaving”. It was a draw to Crowell, he got 7 or 8 yards. And I got to watch the coeds slowly walk down the steps and out of my life forever. Thats a true story, and I now feel like a dirty old man.

  2. CharlotteDawg

    Unless someone can provide stats to the contrary it looks like 2010 was a mediocre team that padded its stats when it played bad teams, then lost to other good or mediocre teams, the kentucky, tennessee, and Vandy games in 2010 come quickly to mind.

  3. SnakeDog4

    Basically, measure yourself against the teams that finished ranked if you want to see what’s going on.

    2011
    Tied or lost all 4 turnover battles

    2010
    Won turnover battle against only Aub, lost or tied to SC, UCF, Ark, MSU

    2009
    Won TO battle only against GT, lost or tied LSU/UF

    2008
    Lost all turnover battles to Ala, UF, MichSt, GT

    In 4 years against teams that finished top 25 ranked, won 2 turnover battles
    out of 16 games.

  4. AthensHomerDawg

    I think in 2009 add an * by the LSU game. One of the guys in stripes was a Tiger.
    Add an * to the first half of the 2010 season as NCAA was obviously having fun at UGa’s expense. 2010 missed AJ for four games…….. uSC and Ark outcomes are different with him in the game. There ought to be a lexicon somewhere!

    • Mayor of Dawgtown

      All the above is true.

    • Macallanlover

      I am with you, I will never count that LSU game as a loss. No excuse there, the game was stolen…period. Along with the Sanks non fumble, two of the worst absolute acts of thievery in UGA history. These weren’t judgement calls that can be argued, they both happened in the final seconds, resulted in a loss when it was a victory, and was a ref simply changing the outcome for no reason at all.

  5. Dboy

    Never underestimate crumbling at critical moments…

  6. FRED

    This is all BS we have a bad coach and that’s why we will never win the big one.