Stability? What stability?

There’s a rather astounding article at Coaches By The Numbers (h/t Team Speed Kills) about turnover in the upper tier coaching ranks at D-1 schools over the past few seasons.  You can take the time to pour over the charts for the details, but these two paragraphs tell the tale:

So think about this. If you signed a scholarship to play college football at an FBS program in 2009, there is a 68% chance that you are playing for a new head coach, an 86% chance that you are playing for a new offensive coordinator, and an 88% chance that you are playing for a new defensive coordinator.

Here is one final eye-opening statistic for all the wide-eyed high school recruits getting wooed by their favorite coach or coordinator. In the last 4 years (2009-2012), only eight FBS teams (roughly 7%) have had the same head coach, offensive coordinator, and defensive coordinator for all four years from 2009-2012.  [Emphasis added.]

Wow.

Of course, the selfish question for us is whether Georgia is past the hump on coaching turnover.  The contract extensions headed Richt’s and Grantham’s way would seem to indicate that.  But, man, given those numbers CBTN compiled, I’m not sure anyone should get too comfortable.

One more thing – I used to be at least somewhat sympathetic to the proposal that student-athletes should be free to transfer in the wake of a coaching change without having to sit out a year, but after looking at this, how chaotic would it be to allow that?

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16 Comments

Filed under College Football, Stats Geek!

16 responses to “Stability? What stability?

  1. I know it is over said and under listened to but players (PARENTS) should look a lot more at the school. Narrow the list to schools that you would love to have a free degree from and would enjoy being there 4 years even if you weren’t playing football. After you have made a list from that then decide based on the coach/depth chart etc. to put one of those schools at the top.

  2. Connor

    I understand you think it would be chaotic, but I think they still think they should just do away with the transfer rules all together. Tired at UGA? As long as you leave in good academic standing you can be suited up for Florida next season. I know we wouldn’t like it as partisans, but I don’t see how you can say it’s in the interest of the kid to lose 25% of their eligibility because things didn’t work out at their first choice. If the professionals in this business can’t stay in one place for 4 years as this article shows, why should the “amatuers” be expected to?

    • AthensHomerDawg

      Some of those professionals have a little help packing that suitcase when they are moving on.

    • Because the amateurs are at least supposed to put on the show, if not actually be, students. The amount of, “I can play now at [School X in the same conference, or perhaps another close rival]“, would be ridiculous. Plus, you could farm kids out, possibly without the other school ever knowing. Or set up precisely those relationships with smaller schools? For lack of a better example, say we told Christian Lemay, go to NC for two years, cause their QBs suck. Start at an ACC school for two years, transfer after to us, where you redshirt learning the offense behind a senior Murray, and take over as a rs JR with two years of experience as a major conference starter, for a team with a better chance at a national title. Or we come to an agreement with Georgia State/Southern where they work as our farm team getting big time talent at the 1-AA level starting before getting called up to the big leagues where the big money is made.

      • Connor

        I honestly don’t see the problem with any of that. Students move from school to school all the time. Why should football players not have that freedom?
        And as to your point about Georgia State/Southern being a farm team, is that any different from what JUCOs are now? The only difference is a kid wouldn’t have to go to a JUCO, he could go to a decent school. If it’s all about the kids well being, why wouldn’t you let them do that?

  3. Mike

    Some of the turnover is positive, in the sense that the OC or DC might move to a better position elsewhere.

  4. Cojones

    What was wrong with Erk shining for many years? If we reach the pinnacle in CF, then I expect some to leave, even Grantham if he has a great HC job waiting that he thinks he is ready for. But what if he took over from BOOM!? Puts a little different smell on it , doesn’t it? And before we have reached our best? I can push the angst meter as well as anyone, but prefer to live the easy life from here on out.

    How scheming is it for a school to let a kid sign because he wants to play for a coach (Richt, Bobo, Grantham, Rodney) and the school, as well as the coach, knows he won’t be there after signing day? How fair is that to the kid? He may have a second favorite with a stabile staff that he can train under for 4 years. If degree is his first choice, then he isn’t affected, but what of a low-conscienced ahole who deliberately waits until the kid commits. Perhaps we should have a stability clause in place for a kid to still transfer through summer if a coach’s move to another school (or dismissal) was in place before he signed. That would be fair to the kid and someone else who may take his place and scholly.

    Go back and review Sign Up Day for the coaches leaving immediately after. We had a couple right here in the SEC. Can’t say that the retirement of Hines hasn’t occurred as a replacement for another coach hasn’t come to mind, but maybe he can get the Recruiter’s job as well.

  5. DavetheDawg

    At Tennessee, they measure coaching turnover with a stopwatch.