Fabris Invitational news

Congrats to monteithdawg, who managed to win the week one pool on the tiebreaker.  Yours truly is squarely in the middle of the pack with a mediocre 4-point week.  Which again is a good illustration of why I don’t bet on college football.

Week 2 picks are up, by the way.  All of this week’s games are on Saturday, so you’ve got plenty of time.

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22 Comments

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22 responses to “Fabris Invitational news

  1. Dave

    can you link to the pool in these posts?

  2. Turd Ferguson

    No Georgia game? I thought we were 3.5 pt favorites?

  3. I can’t believe I talked myself out of taking Vandy. I had picked them until the picks were reset, then I changed my mind. How dumb. Almost as dumb as expecting Georgia to cover.

    • Ha, yeah us not covering was the one gimme I thought was on there, we seem to never cover those huge spreads. But I just looked at the stats on the site, and 233 picked UGA to cover, only 38 picked against, so you had a lot of company. :)

      I’m sitting right there with the Senator, an astounding 4 correct picks!

  4. Macallanlover

    Congrats indeed, impressive for all that beat the spread at that level. But it isn’t a sprint here, beating the spread over the course of the season is very, very challenging. I have my eye on the cumulative leaders who consistently pick 60% or higher, that is the betting Mendoza line. Anyone who can bat .800 at this (or any gambling format, will never have to work again.

    • I used to be in an office pool at my last job where we picked 20 college games and 5 NFL games each week (once the NFL got started). Over the course of the season, the season winner usually was around 55% – 56% in correct picks. It’s crazy how good the vegas people are at setting those lines.

      • Macallanlover

        Or, how unpredictable the game is. Or, how fans get emotionally tied to teams by drinking th Kool Aide, or buy into what the talking heads are promoting. It isn’t hoiw good they are at setting them, the lines are not predictors, just a reflection of where the balance of money is bet on either side. But you are right, above 50% is damned good over teh course of the season, but you have to beat 55% to make a penny (assuming you bet all games with an equal amount of dollars…which you will not do.)

        I remember Phil Steele had a stat 1-2 years ago that Boise was the #1 team in the nation at beating ther spread for a 10 year period and that was at 63%. My thoughts were that they had to run the score up to keep their chances of a BCS bid alive which they needed financially. But it shows how difficult it is to beat the spread for bettors and programs. If a team beats the spread every week, the bettors flock to them and thus drive the line higher to where they will fail in coming weeks.

  5. What fresh hell is this?

    Prior to making my selections I found myself wondering how one would do making no selections and being assigned the “home” teams by default. Turns out…. 5-5.

    That’s kind of painful since I went 4-6.

    • Macallanlover

      I know people in bowl pools that just take all the underdogs, or favorites, and do better than those who analyze each game and consult all the known oracles. When it is all said and done in December, the cumulative group numbers will be below 50%. And that is how those big palaces get built in Vegas. A 5% edge is all the house has, and they let you pick either team, but 5% equals huge profits to the House. Baccarat, Craps, Black Jack, and the slots all have less than a 3% edge to the skilled player, but all they need is volume.

  6. Mike

    I am just happy to have a better score than Cojones.

  7. monteithdawg

    Monteith!

  8. This weeks picks are really tough. I would think it would get easier after four or five games. Right now, not much to go on.
    If a team wins convincingly, but doesn’t quite cover (see UGA vs Buff), bet on them to beat the spread next chance.Right? Right?

  9. Puffdawg

    You know what’s harder to do than go 8-2? Go 1-9. Now that is impressive.

    • Macallanlover

      Had the same thought when I saw that result. That may be my other marker, go opposite those picks. You couldn’t do that week after week if you let your dog pee on one side or the other help determine your selection.

  10. lrgk9

    Random Walk Baybee – did that one time in Fantasy Football and won the sucker…