If it ain’t broke…

What should Mike Bobo focus on the offense doing this Saturday?  I’ll give you two hints:  Georgia’s situational passing stats and South Carolina’s situational defensive passing stats.

If your answer is anything other than throw the ball on first down, go back and study the stats some more.

By the way, check out Georgia’s stats on throwing the ball inside its own 20-yard line and ask yourself if maybe Bobo should have adjusted his playcalling a little more during that second quarter meltdown against UT.

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27 Comments

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27 responses to “If it ain’t broke…

  1. dawgfan17

    UGA is also averaging 6.85 yards per carry on first down. That type of success on first down is what keeps defenses focused on the run and opens up such success for the passing on first down. I know when talking about Bobo a lot of fans hate hearing mention of balance but that is what we need. Cause just a half step of hesitation from their DL as to whether we are passing or running and it will greatly help out the OL.

    • Yeah. I’m not saying throw on every first down. But it’s been Georgia’s best throwing down by far this year. Bobo ignores that at his peril.

      • Biggus Rickus

        It’s been their best down in both areas by far this year. You have a point about the series off the goal line, though at 3rd and 3 I get Bobo wanting to run the ball.

      • Mark

        It’s been UGA’s best throwing down by far because Bobo hasn’t ignored it! That said, when we were backed up on our 1 yard line last week, I was hoping for a play action pass on first down.

        • What fresh hell is this?

          And because AM hasn’t been flat on his back. This is the best pass rush we’ve seen by light years. Hopefully AM breaks the pocket for a few nice runs if Clowney and co. crash the outside.

    • Brandon

      Winner, winner chicken dinner!

    • Rick

      And SC is giving up 1.9 yards per carry on first down. Even splitting the difference, we’re only looking at 4.5 ypc on first down. Either way, it’s pick your poison.

  2. Gravidy

    Awww, Senator, I was hoping you’d leave yesterday’s Quote of the Day up for a while. I’d rather read about the jubilation of a player who had quit the team than praise of VisorHole.

  3. Dubyadee

    I feel like we have a pretty good chance to win this game, unless Bobo makes the colossal mistake of thinking “If it ain’t broke . . .”

    This is far and away the most talented D-line we have faced this year. We should gameplan, primarily, with the understanding that Murray will be running for his life much of the game. The timing routes that we have excelled at so far are not going to be there for us very often.

    I think 27 points wins, so avoid the big mistakes and take advantage of good field position. I am so scared of our special teams blowing this.

    • Brandon

      If we score 37 but lose it will be Bobo’s fault regardless.

      • There will be of course, one series of conservative play calling that results in a three and out that people will point to as a cause for losing the game.

      • Mayor of Dawgtown

        I know you said that tongue in cheek but if Murray fumbles twice and throws 3 pick-6s on short throws and the analysis shows that we were throwing into defenses set up for short passing and the fumbles were caused by calling plays where a RB had to block Clowney, then yes, it would be Bobo’s fault.

        • adam

          If that happened, and USC scored 5 defensive TDs and one offensive TD, and we lost 42-35, we’d get to hear about how “We scored 35 and that should be enough to win. The defense allowed 42 points!”

  4. rugbydawg79

    ah ha The Senator got me to go back and read the last sentence of the quote -Well done

  5. Irwin R Fletcher

    Problem…going back to 2010…is Murray’s ability to throw INT’s and to fumble on that side of the field. (Compare Murray’s interception rate on our side of the field vs. on the opponents side of the field…it’s not pretty)

    Also, look at Murray’s situational running stats between 1-20 for the last two seaons….-53 yards on 16 attempts.

    There is a really good argument to go conservative in those situations. There is also a good argument to throw the ball. I just wonder if whatever the play calling on those, if we’ve got a pattern/predictability that opposing d-coordinators have picked up on.

  6. NC Dawg

    Throw short early and often (don’t worry about “balance”). Run left. Left. Left.

    • Dubyadee

      This. Plus a few max protect routes. Oh, and don’t forget that Murray can scramble pretty well.

  7. NateG

    Speaking of stats, here are some completely useless ones:

    Average Opponents’ Offense and Defense National Rank:
    South Carolina: 96 and 75, respectively.
    Georgia: 78 and 73.

    Average Final Score This Season:
    South Carolina: 36 – 11
    Georgia: 48 – 22

    Average Score Versus Common Opponent ( Vandy and Mizzou):
    South Carolina: 24 – 11
    Georgia: 44 – 11

    South Carolina’s best opponent so far is Mizzou, and they currently rank 66th and 60th nationally. Georgia’s best opponent is UT, which currently ranks 22nd and 83rd. Does this mean anything? Probably not, but it tells me that Georgia has faced a stiffer non-conference (LOL) schedule, while faring better vs. common teams thanks to the biblical smiting of Vandy. That’s literally all it tells me, unfortunately.

  8. Uglydawg

    How big a factor will Williams Bryce Stadium be? It’s going to be the loudest it’s ever been.

  9. Mark

    Senator and commentators… have you guys noticed how often the pass rating goes up for 3rd and 7-9 yards for many defenses? That includes SC. Their pass rating on D is better for 3rd and 4-7 and 10+ yards than it is for 3rd and 7-9. That’s an interesting anomaly. My first guess is that is because teams may throw the ball close to a first down hoping the D misses a tackle and the D will give them that throw hoping they make the tackle. On 3rd and longer, the O goes for the outright first down and on 3rd and short, the D plays harder to eliminate the short throws. Has anyone ever studied it out to confirm what’s going on there?

  10. Minnesota Dawg

    Good post.

    IMO, this Georgia offensive scheme is incredibly effective when it avoids being predictable, especially on first and second down. Those first down, play actions are like taking candy from a baby as those LBs are anticipating run by taking their first three steps toward the line. For the most part, we’ve done a great job of this this year–but we need to keep it up throughout entire games, even with narrow 4th quarter leads (when, over the years, Georgia tends to be very predictable on each down and accordingly, less effective).