Line in the sand

Just Cover notes that the betting line for Saturday’s game has flipped since the summer.

Georgia was a short favorite in the summer over South Carolina. But now its the Gamecocks that are a smidge less than a field goal chalk. This game used to be an early September benchmark, but with conference realignment, its in October this year. This is a matchup of the last two SEC East champs. The winner gets a huge leg up in this year’s race, although both have to dance with Florida later in the fall. You would think with UGA getting two key defensive cogs back from suspension might keep them the favored team here, but maybe bettors are reacting to that D, even at full strength, giving up a boatload of points at home to Tennessee. South Carolina has covered four games in a row, they’ve covered five straight home games and own a 4-0-1 ATS mark in this series since 2007. [Emphasis added.]  These games are usually defensive driven, with the Under cashing in 13 times in the last 15 meetings, but the two overs have recently: last year’s 45-42 South Carolina win and 2009′s 41-37 UGA win.

Don’t like that trend line.  At all.

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26 Comments

Filed under 'Cock Envy, Georgia Football

26 responses to “Line in the sand

  1. Governor Milledge

    My personal take is the Gamecock fans are more amped up about this game than normal, and have driven the line along with them.

    Listening to Columbia’s 107.5 The Game radio station has been interesting so far this week, with a lot of over-boisterous talk, and I feel like I’ve been innundated with more ‘Cocky smack talk than usual. I’m considering calling up the local bookie and running with that spread

  2. Trend line..Srend line. Let us stop reading nonsense into this game. The Dawgs are better than ever this year. Todd Gurley, Kenarious Gates and Chris Burnette got Baptised last Sunday with CMR in attendance. We are going to do incredible things in this game. Ya’ll just watch and see.

  3. Jrod1229

    My biggest thought is are we better than we were last year at this time? Last year in the 2nd game our defense was shit, we had injuries to some prime players, offense still trying to figure itself out.. and we were the better team.

    Granted that works both ways but I just don’t see how we didn’t improve since last year and SC had to lose more than we did.

  4. Rhymer Dawg

    I am completely void of any cogent thought regarding who will win. I look at both sides and try to be unbiased and when I do; there is absolutely no way to pick one way or the other. If I was a betting man there is no way I would put money on this. Picking one side or the other would be a completely emotional decision.

  5. Lrgk9

    Hmm, Ellis Johnson is gone. IMO – he and Chavis were the best DCs in the SEC. I like Grantham but his results this year haven’t given us an entire game. Although the D did win the game in the 4th Qtr last week. Just think we will beat them with Ellis gone unless we beat ourselves (again.)

  6. Rick

    My guess is that as patterns like that emerge they tend to be ever more self-correcting. Team A ‘always covers’, so bettors bet the cover, which distorts the line, making it increasingly unlikely for the team to cover. Of course, I’m not putting my scratch on the line. My real opinion is that vegas lines are bar-none the best predictors of what will actually happen, so the fact that SC ‘covers’ so often bothers me not at all. The fact that the line is +3, however, does (would prefer -50).

  7. paul

    Conventional wisdom says home field is worth three points. A three point line says the bookies figure it’s a toss up. I’d say that’s about right.

  8. Mayor of Dawgtown

    There is another way to look at the trend. “Return to the mean” is coming. I like our chances.

  9. charlottedawg

    This game feels very much like the blackout game from 2008, Gameday, top 10 SEC matchtup of undefeateds, two teams arriving at defining crossroads in the season, and a night game (yes I know gameday and factors 2 and 3 are highly correlated) Let’s hope it’s the same fortunes for the visiting team.

  10. Dawgfan Will

    I think it would be more accurate to say the D gave up a boatload of yards, not points to Tennessee. Hard to lay 21 of those points at the D’s feet. If the offense can protect the ball, I think we’ll do well.

  11. Trend line is pushing back. One has it at -1 sc.

  12. I don’t put any stock into betting lines. They’re driven by perception, not reality. And I put even loss stock into what a team did versus the spread against the likes of ECU and UAB.

  13. What fresh hell is this?

    It is absolutely an advantage to enter this game as an underdog…even a small underdog. Home dogs make vocal crowds even more insane. Perception is important.

    My biggest fear heading into this game was that we would blow out UT, and SCe barely gets by UK. As it turns out, instead of being overconfident we work on some obvious flaws this week rather than the players reading about how great they are, and SCe heads into this game as the favorite.
    While “the trend is your friend” is a good guideline, the rest of that old adage , “until the end where it bends”, is always lurking.

    If you enjoy handicapping the occasional football game, I’ll pass along the most important gambling-related quote I ever heard, ” A team is neither as good, or as bad, as its last game.”

  14. Rebar

    I feel good about our chances this weekend. Our quarterback is better than theirs, our receivers, even minus White LIghtning, are better than theirs; they have Gilmore, we have Gurshall and Boo and RSIV. Our secondary is better than theirs and I feel our linebackers are too. Our offensive line has been a pleasant surprise, and I think we win big and jump up in the ratings.