A simple Friday afternoon question

Like most of you, I figure, I’ve read a bunch of commentary this week about tomorrow’s Alabama-LSU match.  I’ve seen some good points, and plenty of stats being marshalled to support one argument or another, but, really, I keep wondering if the game boils down to one thing:  can LSU’s defense bring AJ McCarron down to something approximating Zach Mettenberger’s level?

Am I missing something here?  What do you guys think?

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62 Comments

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62 responses to “A simple Friday afternoon question

  1. FitzDawg

    Just don’t see it happening.

  2. AusDawg85

    1st or 2nd string for Bama? Well…no in either case.

  3. Very curious to see if they can slow Bama down. Would be nice to see SOME chinks the the juggernaut armor.

  4. Dave

    I tend to agree – Bama does look untouchable. However, it is nighttime in the Valley – stranger things have happened.

  5. bulldogbry

    PAAAWWWWWLLL, THEY DON’T NEED AYE JAY TO PLAY WE-ULL TA WIN!!!

    More important than that, can Mettengrab-her play beyond Crompton?

  6. DawgFaithful

    Senator,

    I’m not sure they can make him look like Mettenberger but they can definitely hit him often. They’ve given up 17 sacks this year. I’m not sure their defense is a dominant as last years. I’m not even sure it’s better than LSU’s. I’m excited to find out tomorrow. While ill be pulling for Bama for obvious reasons, I made a bet early this week on LSU at home getting 10 points. I just don’t see Bama beating them that bad.

  7. Puffdawg

    I think LSU will keep it close. Wouldn’t be surprised to see them win something similar to last year. Is Alabama really THAT much better than the other top teams in college football, especially after losing what they lost last year? I have been tremendously impressed with what they’ve done so far this season, but they’re due for a loss. And as bad as Mettengrab-her (h/t BulldogBry) has been, they’ve still got that nasty defense. And they’re at home. Can’t wait to watch it. Whatever happens, watch for the rest of the country to yawn and claim to be bored (while the SEC continues to rack up MNCs).

  8. DawgPhan

    I think that Mett and McCarron’s mom is a bad matchup for both sides in LA.

  9. William

    I think it boils down to that, and whether LSU put that bye week to good use getting Mett up to a somewhat reliable level. The Hat has had extra time to plot. Does he come out with a few tricks? Or does he get too cute and allow AL to post up and control due to mistakes? AJ doesn’t make mistakes, so it may be better to try to get the ball in the RB’s hands and work on stripping it out. Just dunno. Going to be fun to watch, I hope.

  10. D.N. Nation

    Won’t happy. TSK’s 17-3 prediction sounds about right. I can see the Tide moving the ball between the 20s but not putting it into the endzone much, and I can see LSU being stuck in the shadow of its own goal the entire game.

  11. AthensHomerDawg

    Last week while prepping for Florida that was a topic of much conversation. What we were really gauging was the Dawgs chances against the gators. I think LSU spoils the Tide’s SEC hopes again. For what it is worth I picked NC State against UT and UT to upset the ole ball coach.

  12. X-Dawg

    Ah, the smell of corndogs in the evening! LSU’s defense will need to score for them to have a chance.

  13. Otto

    Mett needs a breakout game for LSU to win. It can happen, Stafford managed to put it together for Auburn ’06.

    However, IMO LSU has shown less promise on offense than UGA did prior to the Auburn game in ’06 and Bama’s defense is a monster.

    I don’t see LSU’s defense pulling it off without a much improved offense.

    • Will (the other one)

      I wouldn’t say Stafford totally put it together in that go so much as he “finally stopped throwing multiple INTs”. That, plus our D playing a game of “everyone in the secondary gets to pick off the Auburn QB” helped.

    • Bobby

      Yea, while Stafford had an indeniably great game and didn’t throw picks, he still turned the ball over twice by fumbling. Interestingly enough, it was a fairly unconventional win for Stafford. I think he racked up about 80 yrds rushing that game and passed for about 200. While I wouldn’t call Stafford a dual-threat QB by any means, I don’t think Mett is athletic enough to pick up those kinds of yards, even if he did play in a non-passing offense in high school.

  14. TennesseeDawg

    LSU gets blown out

  15. I just don’t see how LSU can score enough to win without some help from the Tide with special teams and turnovers. I don’t think Mett can sustain drives the length of the field against Saban’s defense and LSU’s defense is eventually going to wear out from spending most of the night on the field. The Tigers can win an ugly game like Tuscaloosa last year, but they have no shot if the Tide has any consistency on offense. I’m thinking Bama 21-13.

  16. Rebar

    I don’t know, this is going to be the best defense that Bama has faced all year, at night in the valley. Not many teams win at night against LSU.

  17. PTC DAWG

    Go Tigers

    • ScoutDawg

      NO,No,No, No,No! If LSU loses, and normally I would pull for them that is a team that will fall out from in front of US.

      • PTC DAWG

        Go Tigers, still.

        We win the Sec, we will be ahead of a team that did not win their division, book it

        • Cosmic Dawg

          I’d rather beat an undefeated Bama team then 1 loss LSU squad in the SECCG.

        • Mayor of Dawgtown

          Gotta disagree with that PTC. Bama is #1. LSU is #5. UGA is # 6. LSU beats Bama, LSU goes to # 2 or 3 and Bama drops to #3 or 4, 1 behind LSU–both still ahead of Georgia. Everybody wins the rest of their games, it stays the same. Even if we beat LSU in the SECCG, Bama is still in front of us. For UGA to play in the BCSNCG K-State, ND and Oregon would all have to lose and we would then play…..Bama. If any of those teams don’t lose, they would play Bama instead of UGA. The only way for UGA to play in the BCSNCG is for Bama to beat LSU (which would then drop behind UGA in the standings) and then the Dawgs beat Bama in the SECCG.

          • .”It has been said so let it be written”. King of Siam

          • PTC DAWG

            Reasonable people can disagree. The human polls will not leave A one loss SEC Champ behind a non division winning Bama in my opinion, and they are two thirds of the Bcs.

            That said, I do not think LSU has the offense to bear Bama, but they do still play the games

          • DB

            Who would you rather play in the Dome is what it boils down to. Yes it would be better to beat no loss Bama but realistically how likely is that? We need LSU to win simply because if we want to have any shot at the title game we match up better with LSU?

  18. ScoutDawg

    If this game was in April then I would expect Zach to throw for 900 yards. However, who has ever seen the Bulldawgs hit their stride LATE? I think our D just grew back up. I know Oak Tree is amazing. Who really thinks we have seen his true playing ability. If we get on a tear like 2007, OR LAST YEAR, who knows what pachyderms ass we can BBQ.

  19. Always Someone Else's Fault

    If Alabama turns it over twice, they lose. And they have had an issue holding on the ball in certain situations.

  20. Bryant Denny

    I think the game boils down to several things: 1) can we block Mingo and Montgomery (and if we do it with help can we still run our offense)?; 2) do we turn the ball over; 3) ZM will have to step up and make several plays – can he do it?

    I do think LSU has the motivational edge and that may be the difference in the game. They found out who their daddy was last January and I’m sure they’ve been amply reminded since then.

  21. Biggus Rickus

    I just have a weird gut feeling that because the universe loves chaos, LSU will win this game. This also might be my natural contrarianism coming out as well; the idea that if everyone shares the same opinion, they’re probably wrong.

  22. Objective Bama Fan

    I appreciate most of ya’lls confidence in Bama. I am certainly hopeful. However, the last time the national pundits rained praise down on Bama was right before the 2010 USC game. We lost to Garcia. To me, the question is: is Bama mature enough to handle all the hype.

  23. Cojones

    Good question, OBF. Both teams are ready so the Senator’s question could represent the diff.

    Yes, if LSU can get to Mac and reduce him to looking over his shoulder as much and as nervously as Mett can be made to, the game can take on epic proportions just as the Dawgs/Gators match did. It is easily within the realm of possibility that LSU can reduce McCarron to nervous little spiky passes, that would also pull it within the probability of happening to Mett.

    Can LSU help reduce Mett’s nervousness? Nope, but Bama sure can tilt it to the bad side. Can Bama give enough protection to Mac? Possibly, but my guess offhand would be “somewhat” with Bama’s O line making the diff. It’s the best in the SEC and other parts of the country. That’s where the focal plane resides for this match this year. If Bama’s O line does well, so will McCarron and the Team. But you can’t ignore LSU’s D even until the end of the 4th qtr. They will be trying their scratchiness best throughout and that makes this game worth watching.

    • AthensHomerDawg

      Good work. When the uSC proponent posted here frequently pre and post our game with the OBC I agreed that uSC could beat the Dawgs but doubted they could beat the other 2 (lsu&uf). They didn’t and we are in the drivers seat. For the same reason I think LSU gets Bama and I would rather see them in the dome anyway. Again for the same reason. Ain’t this a lot of fun? ;-)
      just sayin’

      • Mayor of Dawgtown

        With Mett at QB I think UGA has a better chance (actually a really good chance) of beating LSU than the Dawgs have of beating Bama. The guy who beat UGA (other than Mathieu) in last year’s SECCG was Jordan Jefferson and the way he did it was with his legs.

  24. Saban stacks the box to fend off the run and MAKES Met throw. Sounds like a receipe for success to me for Bama. I’m thinking Zach throws at least 3 int’s.

  25. baddawg

    To me its not so much slowing him down. LSU has a trust worthy def. I see bama dropping 21… but for me it comes down to, can LSU move the ball. Let alone score. They have a tough road tomorrow. And honestly, let bama roll. Hope we win out. BC I want to play them. Talk about a revenge game.

  26. Hogbody Spradlin

    Yes but Bama’s defense brings Mettenberger down to Reggie Ball’s level.

    • I’m not sure he’s not there already of his own volition. ; )

      I thought Mett would have breakout year this year at LSU. 6’5″ & 230, previous QB experience, reasonably athletic, extremely talented supporting cast… what could go wrong? Quite a bit apparently.

  27. Uglydawg

    Alabama is as a complete team as I’ve seen in college football. They do it against LSU. It won’t be real close.

  28. Bobby

    I’m not sure who i would prefer to win. On one hand, the opportunity to knock off an undefeated Bama team in the SECCG would certainly give us a boost in national rankings. On the other hand, it would be nice to get a rematch against LSU: the opportunity for revenge and a much better chance at winning an SEC Championship.

    Hmm. . .

    Either way, there is a silver lining. But, every silver lining’s got a touch of grey.

  29. Macallanlover

    Hard came to pick, Bama clearly the better team based on play so far, LSU almost “superpower” like at home in Red Stick. Just like LSU/Florida and Georgia/Florida, both defenses are better than the other team’s offense. So a low scoring, close game which means it can turn ona single play/turnover/call. I think Bama wins a close one, but would have no surprise in seeing LSU pull one out. Games like this are field position games and if anyone returns LSU’s punter Wing to the stadium in time to get him suited up, the Tigahs could win an old man style game. Last year he looked like Ray Guy, this year he doesn’t even kick like a guy. Under is the best play….imo.

  30. PSY

    Zach does it Valdosta style.