Don’t bet on Les Miles.

Matt Melton runs the number on how SEC schools have fared against the spread in conference games since 2005.  LSU has the worst record against the spread in that time (by far), but Florida and Georgia are substandard, too.  There’s no real rhyme or reason to the numbers; what’s there is probably the results of what you get from a combination of winning ugly and the public doing a poor job of evaluating certain programs.

About these ads

6 Comments

Filed under SEC Football, Stats Geek!

6 responses to “Don’t bet on Les Miles.

  1. Macallanlover

    Since the odds on betting football games are 11 to 10, hitting 55% is the break-even point for any coach, or team. Based on that, none of the coaches’ numbers would influence my bets, teams are either under, or over, rated and even that varies week to week with different matchups and public perception. Not saying you wouldn’t ever let certain coaches influence your position but I tend to bet matchups that look favorable from my own analysis. Primarily I will give more weight to certain coaches when the game is a mismatch and the coach can determine the final score based on how long they keep their foot on the pedal and leave starters in. Another factor is how deep the talent pool is on a team; if the falloff isn’t that great teams will continue to run over weaker teams even if the starters are pulled. They may not run a wide-open offense in the fourth quarter but the running game can continue to work and the defense will make stops or force turnovers.

    Boise has been a good team to bet when they are heavy favorites because they are very conscious of how perception/polls are all they have to get elite bowl bids so they seem to cover larger spreads over the past decade. The last time I saw the national stats on this, about 3 years ago, Phil Steele listed Boise as #1 on covering the spread over the last ten years and that was barely over 62%. Regardless of specific coaches, or teams, it all comes down to which week you play them if you want to win bets. Tough to make money at sports betting but it is a lot of fun and very fair because the bettor can choose either side.

  2. D.N. Nation

    Not really surprised. Last year’s LSU/Ole Miss game is Exhibit A: Wild finish, big plays galore, and the end result is Miles’ LSU beating an inferior opponent far less impressive than other good teams (Georgia, Bama) did.

    Counter to this, Les always seems to lay wood to some OOC contender-pretender. U-Dub last year, that VT game in ’07….

  3. D.N. Nation

    Shoot, I even forgot about LSU 12, Auburn 10. I think me and some drinking buddies could’ve beaten ’12 Auburn by more than 2.

    • Macallanlover

      Can’t disagree with that, Aubie was horrible and yes, I lost money on that game by taking LSU. But I think the Miles comments are more than just him being a bully against OOC teams. I cannot recall a prolific offense under Miles at LSU. He has used a few trick plays that have gotten a lot of attention but his offense has been restricted to a power running game for the most part because Quarterback play has been so erratic in his tenure in Red Stick. If The Hat had Mike Bobo on his sideline he would have an even more impressive record, and I bet his record against the spread would be pretty danged good. They have had a solid OL group every year and plenty of speed at RB and WR, play action passes would be very effective for the Tigers but they have had no one to deliver the mail consistently. Russell looked good enough to get drafted highly but with that offense and being 6′ 5″, how could he miss?

      LSU has had some great athletes at receiver and have enjoyed some passing success by those guys getting open on occaision but it is the teams he can run over that have yielded their best offensive outputs. Running over SEC defenses is harder to do so his best results have come against OOC teams that are not geared for that (2nd half of the 2011 SECCG against UGA shows what happens when you cannot stop the power run.) Also LSU special teams have put up an impressive number of points. All this to say that Miles hasn’t been capable offensively to capitalize on a team that was built around a shut down defense. That may lead to a fair number of Ws but not necessarily many comfortable wins.

      • 69Dawg

        The rap on Les is he doesn’t trust his OC’s. He won’t mess with the Chief but he messes with the O because he is way too conservative.

        • Macallanlover

          Could be, I know reports say he has a major role in the playcallling. I was referring more to the shortfall of recruiting and developing the talent which is usally more the OC and position coaches. The decision to let Jordan Jefferson back on the team cost them the “unofficial” MNC for 2011, imo. I am pretty sure that was his call. Lots of talk about a split in the team at the end of the year which could have led to fiasco of the BCS loss as he refused to take out JJ when it was obvious something was wrong. If the drunken LSU fans could figure out a change was mandated by action on the field you would think a highly paid HC and OC would figure it out. Bizarre is the only word I can think of for that non-decision. Should have been a very good football game but was one-sided, not sure LSU ever ran a play on the Tide side of the 50. I still consider LSU the champs for that season, but that last game should never have been played.