“Put as simply as possible, Bobo was the best play-caller in the country last year.”

Now, has Bill Connelly got your attention to read his Georgia preview?  I thought he might.

Bill summarized it to me as:  “a) this might be the best offense in the country, b) the defense was only good (not great) with Jones, Ogletree, Jenkins, Rambo, Geathers, Williams, Commings, etc., and now all of those guys are gone (which is terrifying), and c) holy crap, September is brutal”, but there’s a lot more in his analysis to unpack.

Start with how big the Cocktail Party is – not as a rivalry, but for what it heralds for the rest of the season.

Since 2005, the Dawgs have gone 3-4 versus Florida. Following their three wins, they have gone 12-0 with an average score of 39-14 for the rest of the regular season. Following their four losses, they have gone 12-5 with an average score of 32-23. After their loss to Florida in 2006, they lost to Kentucky. After their loss in 2008, they barely beat Kentucky and lost at home to Georgia Tech. They lost to Kentucky again in 2009, three weeks after the Florida loss.

But when the Dawgs win that game, they wreck shop for the rest of the regular season. They certainly did last year.

And how ’bout this Jarvis-Clowney comparison?

I pointed out in last week’s South Carolina preview how opponents tended to run a lot against the Gamecocks on passing downs for fear of Clowney obliteration. But opponents only ran 38 percent of the time on passing downs against South Carolina; they ran nearly 50 percent of the time on Georgia. Clowney may hit harder than Jones did, but Jones had an even larger impact on opponents’ game plans.

Bill is a Missouri fan, in case you forgot, so he knows from where he speaks there.

I think I’m gonna miss that guy… where was I?  Oh, yeah.  Bill has this to say about the biggest loss on the offensive side of the ball:

As good as players like Bennett, Conley, Lynch, etc., looked last season, nobody could touch King’s combination of efficiency (a perfectly solid 62 percent catch rate) and absurd explosiveness (22.6 yards per catch). King caught nine passes for 188 yards versus Kentucky, three for 104 versus Nebraska, and a ridiculous five for 142 versus Alabama, which is like 15 for 500 against a mortal defense. Mitchell could very well be a strong No. 1 receiver, but King was more than strong. He always had the explosiveness, but his efficiency improved dramatically in 2012; so did Georgia’s offense.

I’m actually not very worried about that.  Bill makes a good point about how King’s increased efficiency made the offense better.  Mitchell’s catch rate was considerably higher than King’s, so what does that say about making him the number one target in 2013?  He’s explosive; it’s whether he can stay healthy enough to maintain that explosiveness that’s a concern.

There’s lots more good stuff.  Needless to say, read the whole thing.

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15 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

15 responses to ““Put as simply as possible, Bobo was the best play-caller in the country last year.”

  1. AthensHomerDawg

    Bobo has an i-Pad.

  2. I’m pretty bullish on UGA this year, but I can’t fault anyone for thinking the defense won’t be ready for primetime against Clemson, SoCar and LSU. From the sounds of his writeup he has UGA losing 3/4 to the aforementioned plus Florida, and while that wouldn’t stun me, I don’t think it’s likely.

    • Mayor of Dawgtown

      Unfortunately going 2-2 against those 4 probably statistically IS likely.

      • Macallanlover

        If one of those two wins is against SC, I still think we make Atlanta. Too early to predict games but I think we beat Clemson and SC, then split the other two. But that is based on the current talent being available, injuries can reverse the odds of us winning three but it would take a Perfect Storm for us to lose three, imo. Can happen, but a betting man would love to bet UGA will not lose three of those.

        I remember Connelly from last year as being both balanced and knowledgeable. I don’t agree with the weight assigned to King’s loss but he was a solid receiver for us and that is always missed. I like our receiving corp but feel the offense will underperform expectations because they have been boderline brilliant in the past, but I also think the defense will overachieve what everyone expects so I like this team if they can just get a few good bounces.

        • Mayor of Dawgtown

          +1. What scares me is bad luck. It’s not only the number of games a team loses but which ones. I can see UGA going 11-1 in the regular season and getting screwed if the solo loss is to the wrong team.

          • Cojones

            Snake-bit and bad luck was what accounted to the 2-yr UGA slump and was easily proven it wasn’t Richt’s coaching ability that got run over by a flatbed full of raging rednecks trying to emulate a FU blog against their coach (Zook).

            • Cosmic Dawg

              I’m sorry – I’m a pretty big CMR fan but none of that stretch (e.g. the bowl loss against UCF) was being snake bit or bad luck. Funny how ‘Bama never manages to step on a snake, ain’t it? :)

    • Connor

      Even offenses that return a lot can struggle to find their rhythm out of the gate. I think it’s fair to be concerned about UGA given the schedule. If you inverted it and we were a little saltier when we played Clemson and USCe I’d like our chances more. The ceiling on this team is high, but we’ll need to hit it really early.

  3. Normaltown Mike

    Yeah, but just imagine if CMR hadn’t run off Washaun Ealey, the greatest RB in the history of Georgia football.

    • Mayor of Dawgtown

      Hey–don’t badmouth Washaun’s ability. He was a bad apple, sure. But if he could have gotten his head on straight he was a real talent when it came to running the football. Plus, with all the other knuckleheads on the team at that time who can really blame him?

  4. Re: Receivers. I think he only need to watch the Conley clip again. Mitchell will become 2013 King & Conley will become the 2013 version of Mitchell. And we can hope 2013 Bennett = 2012 Bennett. Not worried about the WRs. Not too mention the rest of ‘em.

  5. G

    “Since 2005, the Dawgs have gone 3-4 versus Florida. Following their three wins, they have gone 12-0 with an average score of 39-14 for the rest of the regular season”

    Nice little stat!

  6. Cojones

    I keep telling yall that Bobo has created a monster O machine deliberately and by forward planning. At least some pundits give him partial due.

    Get on this O-bus and ride Dawgs! It’s the thang that’ll git us thar.