Fun with win totals

I usually save my SEC win predictions for the end of summer camp, when I’ve got a decent picture of likely starters, so if you’re looking for an earlier discussion on the matter, Jerry Hinnen’s post will have to suffice.

It’s filtered through Vegas over/under win totals, so if you think scheduling is outsized in his analysis, that’s a good reason why.

Then again, it’s hard to argue with this:

… has anyone actually looked at the Tide’s Charmin-soft schedule? Unless Virginia Tech is a revelation or Gus Malzahn is a wizard, it’s a three-game season: at Texas A&M, vs. Ole Miss, vs. LSU. The Tide have byes before the Aggies and Tigers, and bracket the Rebels with Georgia State and Kentucky. So a 3-0 sweep seems more likely than not, and the heavy extra payout on the over makes this an even easier call.

Although note that Steele finds Alabama’s schedule tougher than most do.

I do find Jerry’s leanings on Florida’s and Georgia’s win totals interesting, given that of the key games for each he points to for each, Florida’s looks tougher, yet he turns ever so slightly in the Gators’ favor on getting that tenth win.  As for the third leg of the SEC East’s triumvirate, both Steele and I think Carolina’s schedule is tougher than Jerry does.

Anyway, I thought this would be a fun topic for discussion… so discuss.  How do you see those win totals playing out?

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16 Comments

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16 responses to “Fun with win totals

  1. gastr1

    It’s just painfully obvious that the recent weak track record against top competition is weighing down perceptions of Murray and Richt. Hinnen thinks that not only will we split the four toughest games–with two of them at home, one at a neutral site, and the fourth at a rival that has been so great against top competition themselves–AND he thinks we’ll get upset by someone else. He doesn’t even have to have any statistical defense for this; he can just say that because Mark Richt has been winning big games, he still isn’t going to. But hey, even though Florida has no track record of winning those games, they “only have to go 3-2″ in their tough five games–where they have ONE home game in the five.

    I’m tired of it. I thought after last year there would be more respect for the program, but the South Carolina debacle seems to be outweighing the Alabama dogfight.

    • Keep in mind it’s a close call for him. If you read the end of the piece, he wouldn’t put any money on his choice for either team.

      • gastr1

        The point is that he’s got Florida being over and Georgia under when it would take real a revelation of some novel numbers or trends to defend that position. The schedules don’t back it up at all; the idea that Florida is “likely” to win three of those games and that we are “likely” to be upset by one of the cupcakes is pretty nuts.

        If he wasn’t sure about his own money he should have called it that way in the team text, but he didn’t. He gave Florida the over and us the under.

  2. Mayor of Dawgtown

    Remind me…how do you win or lose half a game?

  3. Slaw Dawg

    While I don’t particularly quibble with his ultimate take on the Dawgs–tho I’m not following how Richt’s team underperforming in a couple of years (’08 and ’10) should outweight against slightly over performing v. expectations in ’11 and ’12–I just don’t get the Gator love. I’m more worried about South Carolina this year than UF. 4 losses and we may start developing a head problem with another Spurrier coached team.

    • Mayor of Dawgtown

      If you look at it another way-that the Cocks and Dawgs have been really at parity for the past several years-then when the Dawgs booted away the ’11 USCe-UGA game that was a game that we should have won and the reason for the 3 straight losses is that we gave away our win. Otherwise, basically we would be alternating with them with each team winning at home. But you are right that we really need to beat them this year.

      • Macallanlover

        You are right, the total gift we handed SC in Athens in 2011 distorts everyone’s perception of this series. We laid an egg last season but SC was very capable in both 2010 and 2012. Spurrier has definitely stepped the program up since coming to Columbia, but who didn’t expect that?

        We are not the only SEC team that has seen the game with SC as more challenging in the past 6-7 years, they are legitimately better as an opponent and have replaced TN as third best in the East over that period of time. They have always “played up” against UGA, they just have better athletes and coaching now which makes their Little Man complex more troublesome

        I agree with Slaw Dawg, the SC game seems to be THE critical game on the UGA schedule that we must win. I understand many of our fans are obsessed with FU because they have been a primary rival for more ,but our chance to return to Atlanta and win a title in 2013 will be determined more by what happens in Athens on September 7 than what happens in Jax, imo. It goes without saying I want to win them both but given a choice of the two heading into the season if I could only win one, I would take the tiebreaker over SC.

    • We are not going to let that $#*&>?#* Steve get the best of our DAWGS anymore and I mean that!.

  4. Rugbydawg79

    Florida will always be the most important game for me–and I think we will cream the Gamecocks this year—by October Dog faithful will be looking towards the WLOCP with tenacity

  5. Macallanlover

    Bama has two tough games to be careful about, A&M on the road, and hosting LSU. Slight chance of an Old Miss upset, but my bet is IF there is a Tide loss in the regular season it will be against LSU. Both LSU and Bama have an open date before that game, and Alabama (mysteriously) has an open date before both A&M and LSU. Can you say “location, location, location”….plus all their Spurrier-like whining about conference open dates before them a couple of years ago. SEC office doesn’t have to help the Tide, they are good enough without any help.

    • Merk

      They wanted a def shot at number 7, so they redid the schedules to ensure an undefeated Bama vs a top 10(maybe 5) east team to be in the SEC champ game. Then you get either undefeated Bama or an East team that just defeated that Bama squad. Either or is tough for the NC game to pass on.

    • Cojones

      Certainly the open week training for their toughest opponents will help Bama. You are correct: the open dates Bama’s opponents got OKed in their schedule was unfair to Bama, but they muddled through. We would howl to the moon if that happened to us and was approved by SEC Scheduling. Don’t blame Bama for whining and feel we would do more than whining. Hadn’t seen the open dates in their schedule and appreciate the info. It produces a change in my perception of this subject, although A&M has proven their point with a freshman QB. They will acquit themselves vs Bama better than LSU.