Mathematical proof

This can only mean one thing.

Last season, Aaron Murray became the first quarterback in SEC history to pass for at least 3,000 yards in three seasons when he went for 3,893 yards and 36 touchdowns — single-season totals that rank third and fourth, respectively, in league history alongside the likes of conference luminaries Tim Couch, Peyton Manning and Danny Wuerffel.

According to ESPN Stats and Information, Georgia’s senior quarterback has the chance to join a group that is nearly exclusive this year, when he attempts to become only the fourth quarterback in FBS history to surpass the 3,000-yard mark in four seasons. Only Hawaii’s Timmy Chang (2000, 2002-04), Boise State’s Kellen Moore (2008-11) and Oklahoma’s Landry Jones (2009-12) have pulled off the feat to date — and only Moore and Jones in four successive seasons…

Georgia hasn’t played in many big games lately.

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99 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

99 responses to “Mathematical proof

  1. Irwin R Fletcher

    Prior to the season, I’d put Greene, Zeier, Rauch and Tarkenton in the debate of best QB’s in UGA history…with Stafford (most talented?), Bratkowski, and Murray in the next group…and guys like Shockley, Goff, Bobo, and Belue after that….[with a shout out to Quincy Carter who gave us a darn good 1998 season that included the night win over LSU...probably my favorite non-Florida Ws of the Donnan era ]

    Question is…what does Murray have to do to get into that top group? What does he have to do to be #1?

    I would say eclipsing every SEC record puts him in the group…but it will take a championship or a Heisman or both to put him clearly ahead of that group.

    • Biggus Rickus

      Assessing the value of a player in a team sport by using championships is a bad idea. Murray is easily the best QB Georgia has had in the modern era. Rauch and Tarkenton are tougher to gauge, as football was almost a different game then. Also, if you’re holding never winning an SEC title against Murray, how on earth can you have Zeier in your top four?

      • Dawgfan Will

        Well said.

        • Skeptic Dawg's Better Half Relative

          As I read this, everything is making sense, but something in me says that Murray just doesn’t seem to fit into the top 4. After batting this around a little, I have to wonder if this stems from the fact that the game is more tilted toward offensive proliferation and offenses are opening things up a lot more than when Greene was at the helm 9 seasons ago.

          Nevertheless, it’s easy to argue that, base on what he has done and is expected to do this season, Murray would be in that upper echelon of UGA QBs.

      • Irwin R Fletcher

        Sorry…clocked out this weekend. Hopefully not too late to reply. I’m pretty sure I said he gets into the top 4 or 5 off production. He surpasses that group with championships. I think that’s consistent with my view on Zeier.

  2. I wanna Red Cup

    Wouldn’t it be nice of AM broke Wuerffel’s TD record in JAX?

    • Will (the other one)

      Bit of a longer stretch, but if he tops 2,100 yards on the season by JAX he’ll pass the GPOE’s total yardage record too.

      • The984

        Based on his per game offensive yardage average, Murray is on pace to break Tebow’s record in the Florida game.

    • JG Shellnutt

      Kind of like The GPOOE breaking Herschel’s record against the Dawgs.

    • The984

      He needs 20 to break it. At his career per game rate of 2.3 TDs per game (95 TDs over 41 games), he would break the record in the ninth game, against App State. If we go with his average over last two years (2.5 TDs per game; he wasn’t as prolific his freshman year), he would break the record in the Florida game.

  3. americusdawg

    While I agree with your argument about using championships is a bad idea, it appears that we are in the minority. I read on the WWL earlier today regarding their preseason all-Americans … no mention of Aaron Murray (no surprise there). A couple of days ago, Saturday Down South listed their top 10 QBs of the BCS era … AJ McCarron was 3rd and Murray was 8th. Per their ranking of him … “Murray will own virtually every passing record in 2013 – completions, career touchdown passes and total yards gained, but he’s still in search of an elusive championship – the only reason he returned in 2013. If he wins a championship, the resume will be complete.”

    I guess, like most of Murray’s detractors state, he’s not every going to be in the conversation until he wins the big games. Even if he has a year that is off the charts, I doubt he will get Heisman attention. Seems like those folks are more interested in the true dual-threat QBs. In any case, I hope Murray has a great year and they win it all in Pasadena! Maybe then he gets the attention we think he deserves.

    • Cosmic Dawg

      I love Mr. Murray, but I think the knock on his big game play has some credibility – few would be happier than me to see him get that hobgoblin off his resume in his senior year. A DGD and has already assured a deserved place in UGA and SEC history, but to reach the tip top I think he needs an SEC championship or at least a few more signature wins in big games. Let’s hope he gets those and much, much more this year.

    • AthensHomerDawg

      He ain’t getting the Heisman. No way they give it to two SEC players back to back. No way they let to qb’s from the SEC win it back to back. Champ Bailey should have got his. I thought he was better his soph year than Woodson ( highly regarded two way player) was his final year at Michagan.

      • Irwin R Fletcher

        A few points..

        #1- I’m not a Murray ‘detractor’. However, I do think championships count when comparing QBs. They aren’t the end all…Eli Manning isn’t better than Peyton Manning just because he has two rings…but they matter.

        #2- The SEC has won 4 of the last 6 Heisman trophies.

  4. DG

    Anyone know why Aaron Murray gets WORSE each year with MORE experience?

    Ex: Accuracy vs ranked teams:
    57% in 2010, 54% in 2011, and 53% in 2012

    Anyone know why he gets worse each year?

    • mg4life0331

      Hopefully this year he is 5 yards worse.

      Sarcasm font.

    • Dawgfan Will

      Anyone know why his detractors always try to find new ways to devalue a record-setting quarterback?

    • DawgFaithful

      He doesn’t get worse each year loser. He threw for almost 4000 yds last year. It’s his highest total yet. You see him getting worse. I see him improving. He’s beaten Florida twice, twice throwing the game winning TD pass. Who’s that last UGa QB to do that? He shredded the best defense in college football last year in Atlanta. The kid is a stud. And a DGD. You sit are the epitome of a troll and the typical negative, ignorant, college football/Dawg fan.

      • AthensHomerDawg

        +1
        Wish I would have said that.

        • Scorpio Jones,III

          +2 for all of us old folks who are still nervous about over use of the forward pass.

          But it would be less than candid of me not to admit I would sweep the ground before where he walks if he could lead us to another one, and I have no doubt he would be happy, too.

          If he does that, if he can do that, Murray will be in the same small spot at the top….next to Buck.

          Lead us to another one.

      • TheMooseisLoose

        Aaron beat Florida? No he didn’t. He threw 4 interceptions and less than 165 yards in each game. Let’s give Jarvis Jones some credit last season for forcing three turnovers.

        Also, Florida’s offense hasn’t been worth a darn yet, not a big accomplishment to beat them.

        On the other hand, Murray has never, in his career, beaten Alabama, South Carolina or LSU. The top three SEC teams. Winless.

        Aaron shredded Alabama? That’s laughable. Hardly. Compared to any other SEC ranked team QB, let’s say Johnny Manziel, or even Zach Mettenberger, both had much better days playing Alabama than Murray did. Both shredded Alabama.

        • Also, Florida’s offense hasn’t been worth a darn yet, not a big accomplishment to beat them.

          The Gators were ranked 2nd in the country when Georgia beat them. You have high standards, Moose.

          • TheMooseisLoose

            Gators ranked 71 and 78 in offensive scoring in 2011 & 2012.

            • Last time I checked, they also got to play on defense and special teams. How were those last year?

              • TheMooseisLoose

                Myth:
                “Murray” beat Florida the last 2 games

                Truth:
                2011 against Florida Aaron went 44% completion, averaged 5 yards a attempted pass, and had a 100 passer rating.

                2012 against Florida Aaron went 50% completion, threw three interceptions, and had a 91 passer rating.

                • I see we’ve entered the non sequitur portion of the discussion.

                  Dude, this is getting really boring. Come up with something entertaining, or peddle your wares someplace else.

                • Dawgfan Will

                  So since you’re not going to give Murray the credit for two games he quarterbacked and the team won, does that mean you also won’t blame him for games he played well in but the team lost? You know, logical consistency?

  5. DG

    Murray finished #448 nationally in interceptions in 2011, and improved to 434rd best in NCAA in 2012 in interceptions.

    Why can’t he fix this?

    • You know, I was about to come down hard on you for doing the same ol’, same ol’ negative boring shit (and changing your moniker, to boot).

      But I have to admit that’s some quality trolling there.

      • Billy Mumphrey

        You asked for it.

      • Rick

        Trolling? Hardly – DG makes a good point. Why in god’s name does Richt insist on putting Murray at the helm when we could easily have gotten a transfer from Jeremy Ebert by now, who tied for first in the nation in interceptions with 0 on 1 pass attempts as a wide receiver at Northwestern? Yet another illustration that the game has simply passed Richt by.

        • Normaltown Mike

          Precisely. If only Richt had put Stinchcomb at QB, we would’ve won back to back natties in ’01 & ’02.

    • The984

      Did you know that right now Murray has the third lowest career interception rate in UGA history at 2.83% (32 in 1131 attempts). Only Greene (2.22%) and Zeier (2.64%) are lower. Part of the reason his interception numbers look bad is because we air it out so much.

      • TheMooseisLoose

        Come on, AJ had a 10 to 1 td to interception ratio, 30 touchdowns to only 3 interceptions, Murray will never put up that kind of ratio, lacks judgment and timing there. This is not Aaron’s best part of his game, let’s be fair.

  6. Rugbydawg 79

    beat the gators again and he is my favorite

    • Rugbydawg 79

      Having said that – Buck Belue-won it all and I will never forget the 78 game against Tech—and Matt Robinson was my teammate and that 21-0 victory over Alabama in 76 was one of the greatest of all time !!

      • 69Dawg

        Yea Buck was really good at handing the ball to #34. He completed 1 count it 1 pass in MNC game. He was useless as tits on a bore hog in that game.

    • PTC DAWG

      Yep, for the last 20 years or so for sure.

  7. I did some pretty crazy things that night. Living on campus and having everyone stranded in Athens. Those truck drivers at the Sorority house had some good moonshine and Cojones had the best weed. It was surreal.

  8. Matt played Pop Warner with my first fiance. He was one wild and crazy guy.

  9. uglydawg

    If Georgia had not beaten ND in the ’80 Sugar Bowl, would Hershal be a lesser running back? Suppose ND ran the last kickoff back to score and had won…does that diminish HW’s abilities? Not having won an SEC or Nationial Championship is something..but it doesn’t mean you could take a QB from Northwestern and put him in the SEC and he would.

    • Macallanlover

      I agree, it is a shame we cannot respect Dan Marino any longer because he couldn’t win the big one. My gosh folks, is there no one, anyone at all, in the media who doesn’t understand that football is the ultimate team game? I want AM to get a ring too, but it is not going to diminish what Murray has done for UGA in his time in Athens. He hasn’t won,, or lost, a single game by his actions on the field but can anyone deny he has made positive contributions. This slicing and dicing of athletes by those who have never been on the field (in the arena) is a case of geeks run amok.

      Aaron Murray is an excellent QB by any measurement except those invented by statistic geeks. He is only back at UGA because he wants to win a ring……as much for his teammates and this program as for himself. Tiring to hear folks bash a young man who has given his all to UGA as they try to find a way to dis-assemble someone. Tell me where he is lacking as a college QB: he has the mind, the commitment to excellence, the respect of his teammates and staff, the arm strength to make all the throws, has adequate mobility, represents himself well in interviews, and been a model student in his time in Athens. Yet people from NYC, Montana, and even Atlanta, cannot wait to dig up something negative to say about him weekly. And they really have to dig. I guess sports writers and analysts have to have something to fill their pages and time but seriously, with all that is wrong with CFB/sports why do they dwell on every angle to find something negative to say about a young man who has distinguished himself so well? “OK, Harry, got 190 good things we could say about Murray in this story, and one questionable thing, what we should we go with in this story?” “Go with the negative slant and next time find me more dirt.”

      • Astronot

        Well said indeed, but that’s the unfortunate thing about Murray, is that he “hasn’t won the big game” according to the masses. Yes they have to dig to find anything negative about him, but in every synopsis of his game, the “unable to win the big one” comes up. It’s too easy for them.

        What did Geno Smith win? What has Braxton Miller won? What did RGIII win, besides the Heisman? I hate it for Murray, but it’s like he’s this generations Peyton Manning, whose only knock was that he couldn’t beat UF. Guess it’s an SEC-only thing.

      • Cosmic Dawg

        See my comment above about how much I love me some AM.

        However, you can’t have your cake and eat it too – say it’s a team sport on one hand then demand we only see his “positive contributions” on the other.

        I don’t like playing devil’s advocate when it comes to Murray, because I think so highly of him. But I think you can acknowledge his overall fantastic career at UGA without being blind to his personal struggles, and he’s had some mediocre performances in some “big games”, and SO WHAT? You shrug your shoulders and move on. It’s just football. But it’s fair to compare him to other athletes who may hit their stride against tougher opponents.

        I wonder if he sometimes has rough games because he cares too much, not too little – his sense of duty to the fans, coaches, teammates, etc – I think he takes it seriously and it’s emotional for him. And frankly, I love him for that, bad games and everything.

        As far as the “slicing and dicing” goes, I think many of us post far too often on this blog to look askance at anyone else for over-analyzing athletes, and Murray’s not just some poor kid who suddenly found himself on the news – he chose this life, and I have to assume he enjoys it most of the time or else he’d quit. I don’t see the media as being unfair to him, overall. And If we’re going to restrict football pontification to people who have been “in the arena”, this comments section is going to get mighty thin, mighty quickly.

        • TheMooseisLoose

          I think it’s more his judgment than emotional issues. Just does things at wrong time, like forcing a pass on his own 25 yardline that goes for a pick 6. Also, doesn’t seem to learn from mistakes in areas like interceptions.

          Aaron is also easier to sack than Stafford and Cox were. Sacks have basically gone from @13 a year under those two guys, to @26 a year under Aaron.

          • 69Dawg

            You just went stupid on the last thing. No one was easier to sack than Cox. He could not run at all. He also was a pick 6 specialist. If you want to troll about Aaron v Matt that’s a good question but Cox could not hold Aarons jock.

            • TheMooseisLoose

              Cox only got sacked 12 times, where Murray has averaged @24 per season. Murray has a slow release and is a slow decision maker and isn’t elusive.

              And Cox did throw 15 interceptions, but Murray threw 14 in 2011, so they’re equal there.

        • Dog in Fla

          “This slicing and dicing of athletes by those who have never been on the field (in the arena) is a case of geeks run amok.”

          vs.

          “And If we’re going to restrict football pontification to people who have been “in the arena”,

          It was strangely exciting last time I was there

          just like the time before

      • You tell ‘em brother! People talking trash…get a new venue.

  10. I wanna Red Cup

    well said Mac

  11. TheMooseisLoose

    I like to compare QB’s to find out why one wins more than the other.

    If you compare AJ McCarron to Aaron Murray, besides the obvious differences in win/loss record, you can find interesting items like–
    a) On their own 20-40 yard line–
    AJ was 1 td/1 int in 2011, 0 td/o int in 2012
    Aaron was 1 td/6 int in 2011, 5 td/4 int’s in 2012

    Conclusion–
    Aaron takes big risks at odd times, AJ doesn’t.

    b) on 3rd and 10 or more yards–
    AJ was 70% accurate
    Aaron was 38%

    Conclusion–
    Can overplay run on 3rd and long or blitz Aaron, because he only completes 4 of 10.

    • Murray’s stats inside Georgia’s 20: 27-32 (84.4%), 457 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, 214.65 rating
      McCarron’s stats inside Alabama’s 20: 14-21 (66.7%), 318 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, 209.58 rating

      I guess it’s less risky when you’re closer to your own goal line.

    • Last season, Murray completed half his throws on 3rd down and 10+, not 38%, averaged better than 10 ypa and threw 3 TDs and 0 INTs.

      By all means, overplay the run.

      • TheMooseisLoose

        Actually, Aaron completed 38% on 3rd and 10+ yards in 2011, 42% in 2010, a just 50% in 2012, but of course, nowhere near AJ’s 62% in 2011, or 70% in 2012. So people will overplay the run or blitz.

  12. TheMooseisLoose

    Aaron stays conservative inside his own 20, but once he crosses the 20 yardline, you see a big difference between him and AJ. Aaaron throws caution to the wind between his own 20 to 40 yardline and always has over his career. Another blindspot in his game no one has spotted or corrected.

  13. Merk

    Well everyone just has to wait 1 year before seeing the best QB ever play. I hear Mason has never thrown a pick as a UGA QB.

  14. 69Dawg

    You know Senator a reasonable discussion is the keystone of your web site if trolls are going to start to rule See TheMoose isLoose as example 1 I can just go back to the AJC.

  15. Merk

    True story.. Bama has had stud backs for the past 2 years + a stud OL. Murray will be having the same returning starting backs for the first time in his career.

    If the current recruits come to UGA, then we will have stud backs in place for the next 3-4 years. Also UGA is finally bringing in some OL depth.

  16. Mike Cooley

    I love when some troll puts the word “actually” at the beginning of what he thinks is a rebuttal because he believes this makes him sound intelligent. TheLoser Moose is either a lame clock, gator, or nerd. Then again, our fan base is peppered with malcontents like him. Stafford was overrated until the day he left Athens then he was good. Cox was a case in point that Richt should be fired while he was in Athens. Maybe some people have forgotten the mob that had formed, complete with pitchforks and torches ready to storm Butts-Mehre and string Richt up just because of Cox. Now The loser Moose is comparing Murray to Cox and giving the edge to Cox. Hilarious. Actually, this koo koo bird has done an epic job of blowing his own arguments to pieces with such foolishness. Murray isn’t perfect. That apparently makes him not good enough for a slice of the fan base. And they’re entitled to that opinion as misguided and wrong headed as it is. But Murray is the best qb of the Richt era. And I’ll stand on David Green’s coffe table in my Rockies and tell him the same thing. As soon as Murray is gone these same people will be waxing nostalgic for the good ol days of yore when Murray was under center. They will turn on their hero Hutson Mason with a speed that will be nothing short of stunning when, you know, he actually plays some meaningful snaps and has the opportunity to do more than gripe to the media about playing time that he and the loser meese feel he so richly deserves. Can’t wait until kickoff. Go dawgs and death to trolls.

    Cooley

  17. TheMooseisLoose

    Aaron is the best qb of the Richt era? No way. He hasn’t even won a conference championship. You’d have to go Greene 1st by wins and Championships, then DJ 2nd by win % and Championships, then Stafford 3rd as far as win % on starts, Stafford went 21-5 as a starter in 2007 and 2008. I’d place Aaron 4th right now in the Richt era, above Cox, below the other 4 Qb’s.

    • TSquared

      I’d say it’s”
      #1 David Greene
      #2 DJ Shockley
      #3 Tie Aaron Murray/Matt Stafford–Murray ended up with 22 wins-6 losses over last 2 years, where Staff ended up with 21 wins-5 losses.

    • Dawgfan Will

      Assuming you are a Georgia fan, why do you find it necessary to denigrate your own quarterback?

      • TheMooseisLoose

        ‘I don’t like Aaron as a Qb, but I don’t mean to denigrate those who do. And for the people who like Aaron as a Qb, denigrate means ‘put down’.

    • The984

      So you’re not going to include Stafford’s 2006 starts?

  18. Normaltown Mike

    Moose is right, AM isn’t even close to greatest QB under CMR.

    Blake Barnes was undefeated & didn’t throw one INT as QB at UGA. Not one!

  19. Mike Cooley

    The only way to intelligently judge individual players is by individual stats. The operative word being individual. Wins and championships are not individual achievements. But for some reason that is your metric for evaluating UGA abs. Doesn’t work. If you just don’t like Murray it’s not my place to ask you to explain yourself. But please stop trying to act like you are being objective. It is nothing more than your personal dislike.

  20. Mike Cooley

    That should be UGA Qbs.

  21. Macallanlover

    To make the point without regard to Murray, because that is the only way to get back on point: no man, in the history of football, has won, or lost, a game. Only teams win or lose games. If a FG kicker misses an attempt at the end of the game, he didn’t lose it, the team did. At what point does a missed block or tackle, or silly penalty, or runner that slipped, receiver that ran the wrong route get factored into the equation? Which tooth in the saw cuts? Absolutely no way to make that a grade on an individual. So to say anyone person (let’s use Aaron Murray for example) has not won enough big games is erroneous. When you say a player made positive contributions you are not attributing the win to him individually, just as you do not attribute losses to him alone for errors that are attributed to him. It is why football is the ultimate team game, only crewing could be considered close, but you can usually identify the problem “player” there.

  22. You should have been a Judge.

    • AthensHomerDawg

      He probably was. My first attorney was once a judge. He had a practice at the Commerce Building. Retired WWII vet and black belt in karate. Great guy. They don’t make them like that anymore.

  23. Commerce Building in Athens? Mac, has never been a judge as far as I know. He would make a good one. However, getting him elected would be difficult.

    • AthensHomerDawg

      Commerce Building tallest building in Athens. City Bar (Sky’s bar) is located on first floor. Used to be the Southern Mutual Building now called Fred’s Building. UGa Real Estate Foundation use to have an office there. You sure you’ve been to Athens much. ;-)

      • Dude, I lived on campus and did all my business in Atlanta. No reason to go to downtown Athens. It was so long ago, I am not sure I ever went in town, except maybe to see a movie. Certainly not to shop or eat.

  24. TheMooseisLoose

    Aaron has not gotten better, against ranked teams, in any Qb measurable except td’s, compared to Murray’s freshman season at UGA

    Yards per game, within 2 yards
    Passer effic less than .02 of % improvement
    Interceptions, 20% worse
    TD’s, 90% better
    Accuracy, 2% worse

    Individually, in 4 out of the 5 areas, Murray shows little or no improvement over his own Freshman season.

    Judging Aaron by team stats, Aaron is 1 win-9 loss record against teams that finished top 20 in the ap poll.

    So judging him by individual stats or team, not so good at Qb.

  25. 2010 season, first year starter Murray trains with the best receiver in the country all spring and preseason camp. Then hours before kickoff on opening day, his primary target is removed for 4 games. Leading rusher is Washaun Ealey followed by Caleb Queen. In other words, two guys who wouldn’t have gotten a single carry at Bama or LSU. It is a tough season by all acoounts. Murray is found guilty of trying to do too much… because he had to. Ended up with 3049 yards, 24 TDs and a 154.48 rating.

    2011 season, we have no proven receivers but a great tight end. Washaun Ealey is now running for a Div II team and our running back situation relies almost exclusively on the hopes of a prima donna, Isaiah Crowell, who disappeared during every big game after the SEC opener against South Carolina. After Crowell our next two leading rushers were Carlton Thomas and Brandon Harton. Also guys who wouldn’t have gotten a single carry at Bama or LSU. Dawgs won 10 straight games and the SEC East. Murray 3149 yards, 35 TDs and a 146.41 rating with virtually no running game after the second game of the season.

    2012 season, lots of receivers who stepped up in 2011 are returning. Crowell is now playing Div II. Running game depends on two highly regarded freshmen. The running backs turn out to have the goods with the desire to stay on the field. But our biggest threat at receiver is playing cornerback. Then our leading receiver goes down with an ACL in 5th game. Then our new leading receiver goes down with an ACL in the 8th game. Despite the loss of two leading receivers, Murray throws for 3893 yards, 36 TDs and a 174.82 rating. The team comes up 5 yards short of an SEC Championship and most likely a National Championship.

    2013 season, most recievers and all tightends returning. Stud RBs returning. O-line depth for the first time in a decade. I’m not worried about Aaron Murray.

    • TheMooseisLoose

      Justifying faults makes them more visible.

    • RedHot

      Don’t know what this means, but here are the win percentages against ranked teams for some current sec quarterbacks:

      AJ MCCARON- 75%
      JEFF DRISKEL- 71%
      CONNOR SHAW 68%
      JIOHNNY FOOTBALL 50%
      ZACK METTERBERGER 40%
      AARON MURRAY 27%

      SOME HANDLE PRESSURE DIFFERENTLY AND ARE COACHED UP BETTER ON HOW TO PERFORM WHEN IT MATTERS MOST.

      THE PROBLEM IS ALWAYS 85% MANAGEMENT, AND 15% PERSONEL.

      MJIKE BOBO AND MARK RICHT NEED TO LEARN A FEW THINGS.