The schedule can’t save you now, my pretty.

Gamecock Man gives that hope thing a chance.

This is obviously a tough loss, but there is a silver lining. Particularly considering how Florida played today, we’re likely going to be favored in all remaining conference games in a schedule that’s easier than UGA’s, and if we can take care of business and win out, certainly not out of the realm of possibilities if our defense improves over the course of the season, we can catch Georgia in the standings. We’ll have to hope for Georgia losses, which aren’t assured, again particularly considering how Florida looked today, but there’s still a reasonable chance they’ll lose at least two remaining conference games. We need to take care of business from here on out and see what happens.

That’s the right mindset to take, but I’m curious who pins the “reasonable” two losses on the Dawgs.  LSU’s the obvious pick for one of those, but which team in the East matches up better against Georgia than against South Carolina?  Or is he climbing on board the Gus bus?

I’m definitely not counting my chickens before they’re hatched, so to speak, but it seems to me we’re getting pretty close to “on any given Saturday” territory for that second loss.  And that kind of approach cuts both ways.

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67 Comments

Filed under 'Cock Envy, Georgia Football

67 responses to “The schedule can’t save you now, my pretty.

  1. Debby Balcer

    I guess he would want losses against the west to count this year.

  2. D.N. Nation

    From Garnet and Black Attack:

    “On another note i think the gamecocks could have put 60+ points on Georgia last Saturday if the onside kick, shaw fumble, Georgia’s goal line stand and the ball Ellington lost in the sun doesn’t happen”

    Hear that, Georgia? Had South Carolina not failed to score, they would’ve scored!

    • Dawg in Beaumont

      So let’s say every one of those instances he cited became a TD. That means 28 more points. They scored 30. I’m not seeing 60+, even in that dream scenario.

    • Krautdawg

      SC should’ve scored 60 and we should’ve put up 800 yards of offense last week. Fire everybody!

    • IndyDawg

      That’s some funny trolling right there. Wait…they’re serious?

    • Governor Milledge

      If Floyd makes the TFL on Shaw on 3&7 before halftime, we would’ve gone into the half up a TD. Or if we had converted in the 1st half and did not need to settle for the FG…

      If ifs&buts were candy & nuts…

      • adam

        We also could’ve scored on that last drive if we wanted to. We ran like 76 plays including taking 30-40 seconds between snaps for the last 8:28 of the game. Think they could’ve stopped our 80th or 90th play on that last drive if we wanted to hurry it up and drive down to score?

    • Ellis

      I’ll concede that bit of brilliant analysis but he forgets that if Georgia had scored a touchdown everytime Gurley ran the ball we would have won 250-60.

  3. Rick

    It’s Florida, clearly. Their defense is still the best in the East, and I doubt we’ll be favored by more than 4 points or so. I’d give Florida a 40% chance of knocking us out – all they have to do is not shoot themselves in the foot to have a decent shot. Their offense is bad, but our defense still has quite a lot of hill to climb to stop even a bad offense.

    I’d also give LSU A 45% chance of winning, Auburn 30% and the balance of the SEC schedule a collective 35%. Not hard to see two losses in there. Our saving grace, I think, is that I see at least another loss for SC :)

    6-2 gets it done most years, although that pretty much puts the kibosh on the BCSCG, even if we take out bama in the SEC (which I think we have a great shot at).

    • How does Florida match up against Georgia better than South Carolina?

      • Rick

        How did Florida match up better against South Carolina last year? And that scenario did not seem to require ‘any given Sunday’ style upsets. Football happened, we came out 7-1, hurrah. It would have been very easy, though, for us to lose to UF or LSU to SC (or heck even UF to SC, that was a straigh-up bizarre “blowout”).

        I don’t think G&B is in love with their chances of taking the back door to SEC championship, and they are obviously in worst position than us, but they’ve got better than a puncher’s chance same as we did last year. The circumstances are eerily similar.

      • Rick

        OK, now that I read your question properly, I see that my answer of ‘Florida’ was wrong because no, they don’t match up better against us. I do not understand why that particular question is being posed, though, since all G&B claims is that a SEC-E title is “not out of the realm of possibilities”. I don’t think they are pointing to any such scenario as the most likely. That’s why they call it a ‘silver lining’, rather than an ‘absence of cloud’.

        • I believe GM’s language was “reasonable chance” of two conference losses. I’m simply curious if that’s something more than AGS hoping, and, if so, where the second loss is most likely to come from (I think we’d all agree it wouldn’t come as a surprise if LSU won).

          • RocketDawg

            I say Vandy beats USCe (or in reality it’s us beating them twice because they won’t be over the hangover by next week).

            • Comin' Down The Track

              This is a sneaky and not very far from possible scenario. If (decent-sized “if”) this was to happen, keeping those kids paying attention in the film room gets a lot more difficult.

          • Rick

            If it’s more than AGS hoping, they’re fooling themselves. I think last year’s USC would have a decent shot at winning out, and while I don’t see why 2013 USC should be significantly worse, they are still USC. Spurrier has done an amazing job there, but three consecutive 11-win seasons at USC would be truly exceptional (and as impressive a three years as any Saban has ever strung together at Alabama).

          • The hope SCe coaches and media homers are spreading to their fans cannot be similar to the dawgs hope in the past. The dawgs always get better more often as the season goes on, but SCe have problem keeping their early winning ways more often that not.

          • Keese

            I hope I’m wrong but the Dawgs will have a trip game against a UT, AU, Vandy etc. the Dawgs really do have a tough week-week schedule

    • Chopdawg

      Really hard, at this point in the season, to look down the road & say who “matches up” against who…but, looking at our SEC sked, we’ve got some tough games coming up. LSU at home, FL in Jax; road games against improved UT and Aub; Mizzou at home may be difficult.

      I’m not booking my room at the Perimeter Marriott for Dec 7 just yet.

  4. charlottedawg

    I posted something similar in the power poll but in order for us to go back to Atlanta 2 things need to happen. 1) Defense needs to improve, significantly 2) clean up special teams, every kicking scenario should end with you know, a kick, preferably through the uprights. Saturday was great but just because you control your destiny after the Georgia South Carolina game does not mean it’s cruise control from here on out, ask South Carolina.

    • adam

      The best thing about a young defense is their ability to improve quickly.

      Also, our DL is so much better already. I think Wilson is doing a much better job as a position coach than Garner. Garrison Smith and Ray Drew both look much better. John Taylor and Sterling Bailey are really making me wonder why they redshirted. And Thornton looks good too. We have some really great defensive position coaches. I think we’ll get better in a hurry because of that. It helps that LSU is our best remaining offensive opponent. Plenty of time to improve before that game and LOTS of film now to use to get better.

  5. Castleberry

    I have an easier time imagining a stumble in one of the trips to Tennessee than a loss to Florida or Auburn. I expect we’ll be up for Florida and Auburn, but UT has bushwhacked us more than once.

  6. Russ

    I like our chances but still a lot of games to be played. Of course Gamecock man forgot about the given bed crap that they take every October, so we’d have to lose 3 conference games for them to pass us.

  7. tludlam

    LSU will be a firefight, and I’ll never take a cocktail party win as a given. Call it “any given Saturday” if you want, but unexpected upsets in the SEC are not unfathomable. The Tra Battle game against Auburn in 2006 comes to mind. Ole Miss over Florida 2008. Florida over Georgia 2002. In 2011 it was an inexplicable loss to a bad Auburn team that kept the Cocks out of the SEC championship. We have to stay sharp and not get caught napping in the games we “should” win easily (UT, Mizzou, Vandy, Auburn).

    But first things first, let’s rest, recover, regroup, and hone the blade against the North Texas whetstone. Damn it feels good to be a gangster.

    • I’ll never take a cocktail party win as a given…

      I’m just happy that we’re back to the spot where we don’t take a cocktail party loss as a given.

      • Peteydawg

        This is so true. If we can only make it past that game in my eyes, the sky is the limit. LSU won’t be easy, and our two hated rivals, UT and the barn, will be gunning for us hard this year. That being said, if our defense continues to get better, by Halloween UF is going to be sweating.

        • adam

          The offense will keep improving too. And we need our OL to improve before they fade Florida’s line. They’re legit.

  8. NC Dawg

    We should remember, it was a good Saturday (much of the game, anyway), and it’s a good week for Dawg fans, but only a week ago we were crying in our suds. I’m just grateful for the SC win in a helluva game. I went back afterward and looked at the live blog feed during the first half. Lot of folks were calling for Grantham’s head on a platter, till Georgia started pulling away.

    • I am still calling for his head on a platter. If it wasn’t for the offense controlling the clock in the second half, we would have been in trouble. Unless the defense improves, the Gamecock fan has reason for optimism. We had to play perfect offensively to win this past week.

      • David K

        Nobody will be sweating if his name starts getting thrown around for NFL jobs in the offseason like the past few years.

  9. fuelk2

    I dont’ t think it’s crazy to say there’s some significant chance that we lose two conference games. I just think the odds of that happening AND having them going undefeated is pretty far out there. But I think there’s a better chance that they win the East this year than there was that we’d win the East two weeks into the 2011 season.

  10. Scorpio Jones, III

    The winners were laughing and joking…the losers were hollering “deal, damnit, deal.”

  11. To be quite honest, no game is safe for UGA at this point. The defense is that scary. @Vandy is always tough, even when Vandy isn’t good. @AUB and @Tenn are also tricky games. Then you have LSU and the best defense in the nation in Florida.

    • fuelk2

      I was thinking this morning that the @UTk, Mizzou, and @Vandy stretch will, at best, include one very uncomfortable win. The offense will have an off day at some point.

    • Again, those are all “any given Saturday” arguments, and while I certainly respect them, what I want to know is why it’s logical to assume that from this point forward Georgia will have two more conference losses than South Carolina.

      • fuelk2

        I don’t think anyone is arguing/disagreeing with you – it’s not logical to assume that. What is being discussed instead is how, over time, “any given Saturday” could also be stated as “every season.”

        Winning championships is, as much as anything, dodging that one let down or sneak attack over the course of the year.

        Your question isn’t being addressed more because it’s apparent that there’s no reason to assume the chickens will pass us.

      • Oh it’s not logical at all. I’m just pointing out the Georgia defense is an abortion right now.

        • PTC DAWG

          Did you miss the 2nd half Saturday? Are you saying they won’t improve? Or our O will regress?

          • Biggus Rickus

            They weren’t very good in the second half. They got a couple of stops, but they gave up way too many yards before they got them. It’s not like they gave up 24 points in the first half and then one TD drive and three 3-and-outs in the second half.

    • Joe Schmoe

      The trip to Knoxville is the one that really scares me. On the road in a place we never seem to play very well right after another slugfest with a top ten team. And Tenn doesn’t seem to be quite the dumpster fire it has been.

      • The Lone Stranger

        Maybe not, but uT’s opponent Saturday provided all the garbage necessary for a raging blaze. The Hilltoppers in the 1st Half turned over the football over 5 times over the course of 6 snaps! You almost have to try to be so inept.

  12. Hackerdog

    I think the “reasonable chance” issue is simply acknowledging that playing an SEC schedule is tough. Especially with our unforgiving discipline policies.

    Two losses would obviously include an LSU loss and, most likely, a Florida loss. I have all the doubts about UF’s offense that you do. But their defense is for real. And I think a team with an excellent defense, even if their offense is anemic, has a chance against anybody.

    Of course, we must also acknowledge that, if UF is a loss for us, there is an excellent chance that they will be a loss for USC as well.

  13. Are counting on us winning 13 shootouts this year?. Unless this defense turns it around, we are going to have several losses. You can’t expect offensive perfection every week.

    • Merk

      because Clemson and SC always average 10 pts a game…

      Both had pretty good Offenses (Clemson for sure).

      • We make every offense look great. We are never going to accomplish anything giving up 30 or more 5 times a season. SC is hardly a great offensive team.

        • Hackerdog

          Clemson was #6 in the country in scoring offense last year. There’s no shame in giving up a bunch of points against that team. USC wasn’t as prolific, but they still averaged 31.5 per game last year. And we’re playing them with several kids in their first or second college game. We’ll get better.

          • SC averaged a tad under 7.5 yards per play on Saturday. They only averaged 5,1 ypp last season (10th in the SEC). Anyway, I just want a dominant defense for a change. That was supposed to be the case last year. And it cost us a National Title. No more excuses.

            • Hackerdog

              You just want a dominant offense AND a dominant defense? Well, that certainly sounds reasonable. I’ll pass your demands on to Richt. No more excuses. Dominate in every phase of the game. It’s just so easy, I don’t know why every team doesn’t do it. ;)

  14. Auburn looks to have a legit running game this year. Our defense still has not shown it can shut down a strong run game. Let’s see what comes out of this next 3 week mini-camp.

  15. Rebar

    I think it is asinine to assume two conference losses with this team. I know the defense looks lost right now, but they will get better. On the long run in the third quarter, both of our FRESHMAN safeties took very bad angles to the runner. They will learn to do better. I didn’t see any quit in that young team on the goal line in the 4th quarter. They rose to the occasion. They also had several series where we put Carolina in 3rd and long, only to give up the first down. They will learn to do better. The talent level of the players is obvious to see, they just need the experience; and they will be getting that while our offense carries more of the load. No way do we get 2 conference losses this year.
    PS- Where is Cojones?

    • NRBQ

      Two veteran linebackers made that stop on fourth down.

      For the record, I’m not on the “Defense Sux” bus, but I waited all night for the effect of a couple of “impact” freshmen (one coming off suspension).

  16. JasonC

    I wonder if UGA loses to LSU if Spurrier will still be for not counting cross-divisional games toward the conference record.

  17. RocketDawg

    I don’t necessarily see 2 conference losses either, LSU is good but I think that in Athens we are 3-7 points better. If the game was in Baton Rouge I would almost certainly count it as a loss.

    Florida will a slug fest just like the last 3-4 years where both teams could win with a positive turnover margin and winning the rushing battle.

    I think that the talent level of the conference as a whole has improved dramatically over the last 7-8 years with the SEC gaining the reputation as the premier conference in College FB. It’s no secret that if you want to play in the NFL you should come to the SEC. As a result everyone is capable of knocking off anyone else with a few exceptions (Kentucky, Miss St, and Arkansas) otherwise you had better bring your “A” game every week.

    • I will not be surprised if Mett will be so hyped up to prove himself to UGA fans that he’s better than Murray at least for that day. Interesting game within the game.

  18. Keese

    Why have we not seen the flashes of brilliance at least out of Trey Matthews/Leonard Floyd…we’ve been told all off season