Tendencies

Some pretty neat stuff about the LSU offense from UGASports.com‘s Jake Rowe:

• 1st Down – Offensive coordinator Cam Cameron has chosen to go with the run game just a tad under 70% of the time in 2013.

• Second down and long (7 or more yards) – This down and distance is also a run heavy down for the Tigers as they keep the ball on the ground 54% of the time.

• Second down and medium (4-6 yards)- Second and medium is another situation where the Tigers like to run the football. Cameron has called on the running game 63% of the time in 2013 in this situation.

• Second down and short(less than 4 yards) – The Tigers keep the ball on the ground 68% of the time on this down and distance.

• Third down and long – This is a pass-heavy down as the Tigers have gone to the air 82% of the time. This is also a down where LSU tends to max protect with the offensive line, running backs, and tight end.

• Third down and medium – This is second pass-heavy down and distance for LSU at 77% pass.

• Third down and short – The Tigers tend to keep it on the ground on third and short with a run rate of 79%.

Nothing very tricky there.  This really is shaping up as a game in which the team that executes best wins, pure and simple.

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45 Comments

Filed under Strategery And Mechanics

45 responses to “Tendencies

  1. hailtogeorgia

    Is 54% really ‘run heavy’? CFBStats doesn’t seem to have the situational numbers nationally, so I don’t know what national average would be, but it would seem that even with a second and long, many teams would still be alright with running the ball to try to get back to third and manageable and avoid third and long.

    I’m nitpicking, I’m sure, it just seems that calling 4% over half ‘heavy’ on anything seems to be a bit of a stretch.

    • The other Doug

      Might not be “heavy” but they are still running a lot for the situation. Sure, running when it’s 2nd and 7 is fairly normal, but this stat includes 10+ yards.

    • fuelk2

      Not sure if you’re familiar with Mr. Rowe’s work, but he brings a lot of technical knowledge to the table. I don’t worry about the wordsmithing with him.

  2. What fresh hell is this?

    I’m thinking that after watching film of the Clemson game they might be a little more pass heavy…and it scares the hell out of me.

    • I would welcome this. I really, really hope Mettenberger has to throw it 30+ times in the game. The only game that has been necessary was TCU, where he completed only 50% and had a passer rating of 126.2. The only other time he threw it more than 20 times was Auburn (22 attempts) where he had only 229 yards, 1TD and 1 INT.

      Mett doesn’t scare me. He has a lively arm and some superb receivers who will have some success, but I would much rather LSU be in a position to need to move the ball through the air than to control the line of scrimmage and throw it only when they want to. If Mett throws it fewer than 25 times, I have a hard time seeing how Georgia wins.

      • What fresh hell is this?

        I get what you’re saying but I’m thinking they may be throwing not because they need to, but because they want to, and doing so in situations where they normally have a tendency to run because they’ve seen some weakness and inexperience in our secondary.

        • UGA’s defense hasn’t exactly been stout against the run either (North Texas excepted).

          LSU has averaged a 60/40 split in favor of the run and average 64 plays per game which would put Mett around 25 attempts (or dropbacks may be more accurate). That also means around 39 carries for the running backs.

          Any time an offense gets away from what it likes to do, it will have trouble (USCe vs. Auburn in 2011). LSU isn’t going to become a pass-happy team just because they view the secondary as weak. They will certainly take their shots vertically because that is the LSU passing game. Down-field shots on play action are generally lower percentage, so they rely on the running game to do most of the damage, and try to hit a big gainer over the top. LSU is not going to pop 10 yard passes all the way down the field. That’s not their strength, that’s not Mett’s strength, and that would be forfeiting the way they like to play the game. If LSU has to pass the ball to 7-12 yard routes to move the chains, that will mean good things for UGA.

          To me, the best game plan for LSU is run, run, run… UGA has a difficult time stopping it, and they have to bring down safety support and leave the corners to fend for themselves. That plays right into the hands of what LSU wants to do. Then, they’ll hit a big one over the top. LSU wants to play exactly like Alabama did last year. The question will be can Georgia stop the run enough/score enough to protect the corners on the deep stuff.

          • Scorpio Jones, III

            By George, I think he’s got it.

          • AusDawg85

            +1 Like I noted below, I think our best bet may be to let them eat clock and stay on the ground until they get near the Red Zone. Then hopefully stiffen and stop/slow/reduce their scoring. If we can also eat clock on the ground, all the better for our D. The temptation to score fast and quickly will be high for us, but if that puts our D on the field the whole game to take a pounding from their running attack, it may look too much like the SECCG. So yes, I’ll blame Bobo if we score 50 with over 600 yards of offense but LSU keeps it close!

            /kidding…sort of.

          • Dboy

            “LSU wants to play exactly like Alabama did last year.”

            ^^^Yes

  3. Rival

    I admit I haven’t seen any LSU games this year. That seems like a lot of running tendencies, but Mett has put up some good numbers. How is their play-action game?

  4. Heavy – agree Hail2UGA.
    Comparatively speaking to what other teams do in the same situation is what it looks like he might have meant.

  5. JasonC

    I saw a breakdown of the auburn game where they run 2/3 of the time they’re in 2rb, 2wr &1te. And they pass about 2/3 when they are in 1rb, 3wr & 1te. Also, better completion % from the latter formation.

    (Sorry, typing on a phone)

  6. uglydawg

    It’s pretty obvious…stopping or at least slowing down the run, and getting pressure on Mett are going to be the keys. If Georgia can’t do that then AM and Gurley better have a super day on offense (on the other hand, LSU faces the exact same situation).This game is the “the big hump game” for Georgia’s year. Winnig it should give the Dawgs a very likely SECE championship,(with the remaining schedule very manageable). Lose it and we all know that the WLOCP will be for all the marbles.

  7. Ginny

    Anyone else surprised that we practiced in pads three days this week so far? Apparently it’s pretty unusual for us. Looks like everyone understands how big of a game this is for us.

    • William

      This doesn’t suprise me. We did it for USCe, to get our minds right about how physical the game would be. You don’t want your troops going through the motions when they are going to be playing against a smash mouth team. Slap them in the face, and keep slapping them. That way when LSU does it, they won’t blink!

      • JRod1229

        I think we only practiced two days in pads vs. USCe. The rest of your message still stands. It’s the coaches challenging the team again to be physical.

      • JG Shellnutt

        Just like Mett is getting insulted all week in prep for our game. Very smart.

    • Sock Monkey

      Touch or tackle? Tackle!

    • Dboy

      “Looks like everyone understands how big of a game this is for us”

      and how physical a game it is going to be. I think earlier this week CMR said something to the effect: “LSU just wants to line up an maul you.”

      I think that is what we are preparing to face Saturday

  8. Ausdawg85

    LSU gonna run. I’d just like our D to play bend but not break, avoid any cheap scores, no ST gaffes, and pray Bobo’s troops execute to max efficiency. If both teams run well, we may see 30 points as the mark to hit with the team in possession during the last two minutes able to be the winner. Nail-biter, heart-stopper.

    BTW…let’s hope us fans aren’t the only ones to see a Les Miles obvious fake punt, FG, kick, 4th&1 play coming. You know he can’t resist calling one.

  9. William

    Does anyone else see this as Herrera versus Hill? I was thinking about it the other day. I know the ILB is not necessarily in charge of keeping the RB in place, but it just seems to me that Herrera and Co are going to be the determining factor in how much push back we get on the LSU O-Line. Granted Hill can take it outside of the tackles, but he is most effective it seems grinding right up the gut.

    • Dboy

      Unfortunately, it will be Hill and Copeland vs Herrera…which means Wilson and Co better be ready to swarm in and help.

  10. Skeptic Dawg

    Keeping LSU and Hill under 200 yards will be a tall task for this young, inexperienced D and Grantham. The D line struggles to get a solid push and the LB’s are often out of position. Throw in Copeland (LSU’s version of Hicks) and this looks to be a long day for the Dawgs D. Then Grantham will ask the secondary to play disciplined, assignment football and not bite on the play action. This game does not setup well for the Dawgs D. Can Murray and the offense keep pace? I sure hope so.

    • sniffer

      Skeptic, wouldn’t you agree that replacing the LSU names in your comment with GA personnel be equally as accurate? It seems to me that the Tigers have the same challenges as we do this week.

      • Skeptic Dawg

        Sniffer, you are 100% correct. The two teams are mirror images of on another. However, would you prefer to have Grantham or Chavis on the Georgia sideline? My confidence in Grantham has slowly declined over the past 1 or so.

        • uglydawg

          A mirror image except for the lines. Georgia has played much harder competition, but still, to me, LSUs line (O&D) seems a little stronger. I hope I’m wrong.

          • Skeptic Dawg

            You may be correct about the two lines. While we have played stiffer competition, we have stood up strong and stopped the run in either of those two games. And that is what worries, especially if LSU wins the battle at the line of scrimmage.

          • Joe Schmoe

            As for the d-lines, I think they may have a little more quality on the front line but maybe not as much depth as we do. That might make a difference in who is more gassed late in the game.

    • W Cobb Dawg

      This is the type of offense the Dawgs D sees every day in practice. But is that fact reassuring or a concern? Guess we’ll find out on Saturday.

      • Biggus Rickus

        They see a better version of it in practice. Well, except for the OL. Not that it’s helped them much so far.

        • Dboy

          Their OL and DL are probably slightly better. Their Defense may be slightly better. Our offense, QB and WRs are slightly better. Im not sure that bodes well for us. The only thing to hang our hat on is that we have been tested more as a team than they have. Perhaps, that is to our advantage.

  11. Joe Schmoe

    I am personally interested to see how our defense does against a true pocket passer (something we really haven’t seen in our big games so far). I think we will see a lot more pressure as the d-line and speed rush, particularly in 3 & long situations.

    I think home field advantage is good for a win for us if we can avoid any catastrophic mistakes.

  12. David K

    Hill looked like a world beater against Auburn. Let’s hope that was due to Auburn’s horrible defense and not the former. If not, it could be like the Bama game where their run game eventually wears us down and beats us down the stretch like Lacy did.

    • Scorpio Jones, III

      If LSU is approaching 275 yards rushing at the start of the fourth quarter, I fear the score won’t be close.

      Yes, I think Georgia’s offense can score on anybody, but they have to be on the field to do that.

      This may be one of those games when the coin toss actually means something.

      Take the damn ball Mark.

      • uglydawg

        That’s right, Scorp…Take the ball. The best chance Georgia has it to wear down LSU’s defense…and giving them the ball early is not a way to acccompish that….it also TAKES AWAY the very real possibility of an LSU onside kick to start the game and kill the crowd enthusiasm….and don’t think it’s not a consideration. Take the ball!!!!

    • Joe Schmoe

      As I mentioned above, I do think we have more quality depth on the d-line this year than we did last year.

    • Dboy

      “Hill looked like a world beater against Auburn”

      Hill was running through gaping holes via OL and the 275 LB Copeland…who may be even more intimidating than Hicks. Lets hope our DL can clog the lanes better than AU

  13. uglydawg

    UH>..belay that last remark…it actually GIVES LSU the opportunity to onside kick and kill the crowd.

  14. Mike

    If UGA can stop the run, they win. Simple as that. Something the Grantham defense was not able to do last year against a similar team; Alabama.