Looking ahead

I know Richt and his team won’t be spending any time trying to game the season out, but that won’t stop us.  Besides, what’s the fun of that 3-1 start if you can’t fantasize a little?

Looking at the Coaches Poll first, the Dawgs got a nice little bump this week, passing two undefeated teams, Louisville and FSU.  The good news is that two teams ahead of Georgia will play each other (Oregon and Stanford) and Georgia, should it make it back to the SECCG, will get a crack at another highly ranked team, perhaps a top-ranked Alabama squad.  That will clear some of the underbrush.  The bad news is that there are several other undefeated teams still out there, including the Clemson squad that notched a win over Georgia.  It’s also worth keeping an eye on 10th-ranked Oklahoma.

It’s hard to draw too many conclusions on the computer front yet, but a look at Sagarin’s early rankings doesn’t offer much ground for optimism.  Despite playing the toughest schedule on the list and having two wins over top thirty teams (and one over a top ten team), Georgia ranks only ninth, behind two other one loss teams, including LSU.

All of which means it’s still a very mixed bag for the Dawgs.  As BCS Guru puts it,

With its victory over LSU, Georgia staved off BCS elimination and bolstered its credentials considerably now that it’s played three games against top 10 teams and is 2-1. With a win over South Carolina, the Bulldogs are in control of the SEC East as long as they defeat Florida in Jacksonville. Their problem stems from their loss to Clemson as they’ll not be able to jump an unbeaten—or even a one-loss—Tigers, Oregon or Stanford if they finish without a loss.

Which means things are pretty simple for now: focus on getting back to Atlanta and winning the SECCG.  That’s all Georgia can control at this point.  Get there and hope the football gods are kinder than they were in 2002.

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41 Comments

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41 responses to “Looking ahead

  1. Joe

    How bout’ this; I re-match for it all with yaba daba dabo (I cannot stand him or the orange and purple tigers). I like our chances if that happens.

    • Hackerdog

      I’m counting on Clemson to pull a Clemson at some point. They still have to play FSU and USC. There is a good chance that they lose one, or even both, of those games.

  2. Jeff Sanchez

    This would be the most UGA thing ever:

    Finish as a one loss SEC Champ the year there are two (or more) undefeateds and the last year before that would get us in a four team playoff

  3. simpl_matter

    I’m not hearing anything about Toby’s injury to his knee(?) during the game. Is he okay?

    • RocketDawg

      If I am not mistaken he came back in and played toward the end of the game.

      • adam

        Re-watched it last night.

        He did indeed comeback in.

        He seems to have a have a hyperextension or a tweak or slight pull or something along those lines. He came back in and played pretty well.

  4. Chuck

    Well, I’ve been waiting for the moment when Sagarin’s rankings were totally discredited and now we have it. That one-loss UGA could rank behind one-loss LSU, with our loss to undefeated Clemson and their loss to us??

    I can understand how a biased human could make that error, but if a cold-blooded computer does it then it’s just running a bad program.

    • Sagarin says that it takes more than the first few weeks of the season to build up the data sufficiently for his computer model.

      • Ausdawg85

        True. Payola checks don’t start arriving until week 6.

        • dawgfan17

          Even short of data it is hard to see how A&M with 1 game against top 30 teams (his rankings) and that being a loss is ahead of UGA with 3 games (#1 SOS according to the team) against top 30 is behind them. Behind some weak no loss teams I can get but that I do not. Oh well. Just win out and let the chips fall where they may.

  5. Hard to imagine UGA is overlooked for the NC game if we do go to SECCG and win.

    Last year, the media basically said that the SECCG was the de facto NC game. ND was a total joke of a team being there. I would think UGA gets some love from the media as they want them to see UGA get in for real this time.

    But this is all academic. We loose to an unranked UT or KY or something equally dreadful and it all comes crashing down.

    • uglydawg

      You make the sad point that it’s the desire of the media, and not actual deservedness, that determines who gets to play for it all. Yep, ND was a joke and probably, there will be an undeserving team in it this time as well…there is a jealousy-driven anti-SEC current flowing in the media.

      • The Lone Stranger

        Maybe the Corched tOSUs perhaps. It flies in my face even now.

      • Comin' Down The Track

        I agree. Sadly, it is media-driven; and as anathema as it seems, we’re currently the media darling’s. I don’t even know how to act or feel about that.

  6. Charlottedawg

    Play this on continuous loop in Butts Mehre this week

  7. Russ

    You’ve hit on my worry. For all the whining by some fans about how Richt can’t win a MNC, the 2002 and 2007 teams were easily MNC caliber except for timing. And it took a made up rule from ESPN to keep us out in ’07, the same rule they conveniently ignored for Bama in 2011.

    Still, it’s all moot if we lay an egg in Knoxville.

  8. Skeeter

    National Championship is a beauty contest complete with swimsuit competition, dance and Q&A.

    Let’s just focus on winning out and then we can expose the Natty Lite for the the sham that it is. (not that Bama didn’t do that last year)

  9. Heathbar09

    We just need South Carolina to run the table. That means they’d have beaten Clemson the last week of the season and we’d all be 11-1. Clemson would deserve to go to the NCG over us, but the Dawgs would be 12-1 and SEC champs and that would be hard for Clemson to overcome. Certainly not a guarantee, but USCe doing well helps us a lot.

    • JRod1229

      While some pundits would bring up that Clemson beat us head to head.. most would say it was because it was our first game, Todd Gurley’s injury, etc..

      Waay to premature at this point. Win and go on… I’ll worry in November about our rankings.

    • tbia

      It would also help if FSU and Clemson would split.

  10. 81Dog

    I dont agree with the premise that UGA cant/wont jump a one loss Clemson team. What if they get shelled by another good team? What if they gack one up to a mediocre team (I’m looking at you, Paul Johnson)? If part of your consideration at the end of the year is: “which one loss team beats another on a neutral field?”, I think there would be a pretty good chance UGA wins in that discussion.

    There’s a lot of football yet to be played. UGA may look awful and win out anyway, we may look dominant and crush everyone we play through the SECC (if our O keeps producing and our D starts to clue in). It’s obviously somewhat out of our hands, but who could foresee the chaos the last couple of weeks of the 2012 season that put the SEC champ in the BCS game express lane? How many UGA fans, or other people, figured UGA would be in THAT discussion at halftime of the South Carolina game, much less after it?

    Patience, grasshoppers. If UGA keeps winning, and keeps improving, it will all work out.

    • Governor Milledge

      Clemson, even with all of its offensive fireworks, still has a few games yet to go. Home v FSU on 10/19, @ the Terrapins and their D the following weekend, at USC last regular season game.

      I think Clemson comes down after a tight game against FSU and loses to Maryland in College Park and loses to SC end of year, especially with their home field advantage

    • mdcgtp

      this is spot on. Win our games and the competition will take care of itself. Northwestern has to be salivating at facing Ohio State’s secondary which does not look good at all.

      the notion that the media or ESPN won’t be on our bandwagon is absurd. Danielson said something interesting after the game. He said that the LSU game was so emotional for UGA fans because we all did not want to get our heart broken. well it kinda works that way for the media. they don’t want us to make fools of them. they will hop on whatever bandwagon they think makes for good conversation/copy. we CERTAINLY fit that category right now. if we beat UF and whoever comes out the West (be it Bama, a repeat over LSU or Johnny football) we are going to be the SEC’s champ. i can understand an unbeaten stanford or Oregon (which I don’t think either will exist) getting the nod because both will play each other plus combos of washington and UCLA plus a pac 12 south champion (presumably ucla).

      my biggest worry is getting our secondary to make steady progress in time for UF and Bama.

  11. stoopnagle

    59-14 is the score to beat this week. Can’t go to Knoxville and play just to win. We’re gonna have to make a statement. 42-3 or 45-7 should give UGA a needed December talking point.

    • mdcgtp

      I don’t agree that we have to make a statement or compare scores. Whether you win by 28 or 35 or 45 is pretty immaterial in my book. We will be judged by beating UF, finishing unbeaten in quality fashion on a weekly basis, and who how we play in the Dome.

    • Will (the other one)

      Not sure we have to top what Oregon did, but it’d be very nice to hold a team under 20 points for the first time this season.

  12. Joe Schmoe

    Obviously we have a ways to go, but I believe UGA has a very good chance of jumping a one-loss Clemson. If we win out and beat Alabama in the SECCG, our resume would be ridiculous and the loss to Clemson by 3 on the road would not be enough to outweigh wins of AL, USCe, LSU, UF, etc.

    Let’s hope that Clemson beats FSU and USCe beats Clemson.

  13. Scorpio Jones, III

    Ok Bluto…take them what will down this dangerous path if you feel you must, but me…I got a bubbling pot to study, I got to read the entrails of a Calhoun’s BBQ plate…make sure my totems are in their correct pockets, and worry my ass off about Tennessee.

    Have you seen how big their offensive line is??? Huge, just huge…and their long snappah? Hell, he could start in the NFL Business.

    Can you imagine, as Butch Jones looks in the mirror every morning this week, that he is thinking…(well, screaming to himself) signature win, signature win.

    Me, I’m getting ready for the biggest game in modern Georgia football history…the next one.

    • Honey, those boys may be big, but that can mean….they will be slower and worn out faster. Our Defense may be young, but they are agile and crafty. We got this…feel it in my fingers, I feel it in my toes, winning is all around us …come on and let it show.

  14. PTC DAWG

    Get to the dome and win the SEC. That is all UGA can control and IS the goal.

  15. Mayor of Dawgtown

    Georgia is the highest rated one loss team in the country and is ranked ahead of several undefeated teams.

  16. saildawg

    Of course we have to take care of business, but here is the problem as I see it
    1)Ohio State will go undefeated with that schedule
    This means that we need the PAC 12 to beat up on each other and not have an undefeated team, and the ACC schools to loose to their SEC rivals. I just don’t see both of those happening. What really would have been interesting last year if Ohio State wasn’t on probation would a 1 loss bama team have taken a back seat to NS and OSU, even though people probably thought they were better but wanted to reward an undefeated season? Recall ND was ranked #1 going into the title game, but were a large underdog, so polls are not based on who is the best team, but other factors which are not logical.

  17. Will (the other one)

    I’ll say this: the “narrative” is far more on our side so far this season than it was in 2007 (or even last year, where some of the talking head idiots argued that if we’d beaten Bama Florida deserved a shot at ND instead of us.)
    Mark May actually said positive things about us. It’s strange and I’m not quite comfortable with it.
    I’m also really worried about our secondary, a noon kickoff, and Missouri’s offense in 2 weeks as a big trap game.