Random Georgia-Missouri thoughts

This, that and the other…

  • Plenty has been made of how it’s Georgia dealing with injuries this year, but don’t forget that the Dawgs were short-handed in Columbia, too, because of the suspensions on defense.  So this isn’t exactly a new experience for Georgia.
  • Gary Danielson thinks Bobo will rely on the short passing game for first downs and not their running game for first downs.  I can certainly see a case for that, based on how poorly Georgia’s power formation did when the Vols stacked the box on third-and-short.  I don’t know why Georgia doesn’t throw more to a tight end when it’s faced with that situation.  (That worked in the South Carolina game.)
  • The intangibles seem huge for this game.  Mizzou rolls in feeling confident with its 5-0 start, one that’s compiled against Sagarin’s #81 strength of schedule.  Georgia, meanwhile, comes in 4-1 against Sagarin’s second-rated strength of schedule.  There’s confidence from that, from the way Murray’s played and that it’s at home.  How much do the injuries unsettle that?
  • If you’re puzzled why the spread opened the way it did, take a look at the chart that graces the beginning of Bill C.’s post analyzing the game.  Adjusted for schedule, Georgia ranks higher across the board in all of Football Outsiders‘ metrics.  Including defense, believe it or not.
  • Speaking of Bill, I love this line:  “Gurley or no Gurley, Quayvon Hicks is a load. He’s also a “fullback,” whatever that is.”  I know he goes on to say that Missouri handled Vanderbilt’s power blocking last week, but Vandy doesn’t rely on old-fashioned I-formation football the way Georgia does.  On the other side, Georgia may not handle well what Missouri does on offense, but as least the defense has seen it before.  Who’s got the advantage?  Hell if I know.
  • One more thing from Bill:  “…if the Dawgs tackle well and hold Mizzou to minimal gains on standard downs, the Tigers will be forced to continue to come up big on passing downs. That will be difficult to accomplish.”  For Georgia or Missouri?
  • I have a feeling I’m gonna miss Jarvis Jones.
  • The X-factor?  Special teams, of course.  How likely is it that we’ll see Georgia pull off a big play like Samuel’s stuff of the fake punt?  Um, don’t answer that.
  • If I recall, last year Missouri was extremely aggressive on defense, attacking Georgia’s line with lots of blitzing.  It worked well until Bobo popped ‘em with some well designed screens and slants.  It strikes me as a pretty good strategy this go ’round, at least until they can see whether the inexperienced offensive players can cope with having the timing of plays disrupted.

My gut is telling me right now that Georgia wins, but doesn’t cover.  What do y’all think?

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39 Comments

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39 responses to “Random Georgia-Missouri thoughts

  1. Mike

    Dawgs are battle tested and play especially well between the hedges. At a neutral location I would agree with you, but since it’s at home, I think Dawgs on top by 10.

    • Cojones

      So your betting they cover. I’m in agreement with Bluto here in that they may or may not eke out a win, but they won’t cover. Our D won’t let us cover.

  2. William

    I think the Cardiac Dawgs will run it down to wire again, and will put their hopes in Morgan’s leg again. It also remains to be seen if the Offense will be handcuffed due to the new WR’s that will be rolling in. Lynch and Rome might need to have monster games for this to get pulled out.

  3. BeardDawg

    Hope springs eternal. Driven by the week of hearing how bad they are, the D make enough key stops when needed. Driven by the week of hearing how untested they are, Green and the new recievers come through big. It doesn’t hurt that AM is tossing them the ball. Special teams has an average day. Nothing to kill the team, but not needing a game winning OT field goal.I Like the Dawgs by 10-4.

    • BeardDawg

      10-14. Stupid typing.

      • The Lone Stranger

        I liked the original. That would mean the Dawg D out scored a team! I only ever remember a team scoring exactly 4 pts. once: Iowa knocked off State Penn, 6-4, back early this century. Great Big12 ball, don’t you know!

  4. BulldogBen

    @MarkRicht: Something special is going to happen in our stadium tomorrow at 11:30am The more people that are there the more special it will be. Be there

    • Scorpio Jones, III

      For the first time in years of Stadium Abstinence after many, many years of being there in person, I kinda, sorta wish…well, I am little, slow and old, but brother I can scream pretty danged loud….so…somebody in there holler twice as loud for me.

    • Dog in Fla

      We’re wearing Smokey Grey uniforms?

    • Mudcats Impala...

      My guess is the “Letter to Larry” tribute video…..

  5. biggity ben

    I definitely wouldn’t categorize myself as overconfident, but didn’t we go into Clemson versus an arguably faster moving spread offense and only lose by 3 after missing a field goal.

    • adam

      And Clemson’s offense is better than Missouri’s.

    • Mayor of Dawgtown

      Well… not wanting to be negative but we had Gurley, Marshall, and Malcom Mitchell, et al. for Clemson, too. And still lost.

      • Biggity Ben

        We didn’t have Mitchell and lost Gurley for a quarterish. But your point is well received. I just mean that the D is better now (right?) and we’re full strength there except for Tray.

  6. charlottedawg

    Well at least Georgia won’t be over looking Missouri, amirite?!?! I’m worried too but I have the feeling the team’s been hearing all week how they’re the trendy upset pick at home and they come out playing with their hair in fire. Some mistakes are made on special teams and defense as usual and A-a-ron our new Mr clutch wills us to another close win even with a slight drop off in offense.

  7. OhioDawg

    “Georgia, meanwhile, comes in 4-1 against Sagarin’s second-rated strength of schedule.” – And who in the world has a strength of schedule that’s rated higher than ours? Gotta’ feel sorry for whoever that is.

  8. Bright Idea

    Whatever happens I don’t want to hear “we shoulda’ thrown to the tight end” when he was covered like a blanket.

    • W Cobb Dawg

      I respectfully disagree. Good OCs find a way to get the ball to their best players. As much as I like newbees like Green, Douglas & R. Davis, I’d feel much better if I knew Lynch, Rome & Hicks would be a bigger part of the O.

  9. Rebar

    I’m praying the D comes through this weekend, and I’m hopeful. We got sacks on the Tennessee line that some say is the best in the SEC. I think we get some pressure on their quarterback and disrupt his timing with his tall receivers.

  10. AusDawg85

    Something tells me Floyd, Jenkins and The Pastor have a big game, Murray to Conley becomes a “catch” phrase, and the Dawgs win…but don’t cover.

  11. Trbodawg

    win but not cover is what I chose

  12. Flukebucket

    I go with win and cover. I do not believe we give up 30 points tomorrow either.

  13. Chuck

    “… Georgia wins, but doesn’t cover.”
    Yeah, you can probably say that for the rest of the year. But if that happens I’ll be a happy Dawg.