For Georgia 2013, there’s two kinds of pessimism.

Bernie nicely skewers one of them, but here’s the one I fear a bit:

There is a chance a bad targeting call could end up deciding the SEC East. Georgia hopes it doesn’t. So does the SEC office. But it could happen.

In a season that’s seen its most recent manifestation of bad luck occur in the form of an ankle injury to Chris Conley on the last, completely meaningless play in a loss to Vanderbilt, of course that could happen.  (And before any of you pessimists Booker addresses insist that if Georgia doesn’t go to the SECCG as a result of losing the tiebreaker, it won’t be because of the penalty calls, but because of special teams, Grantham’s incompetence, etc., well, you may be right, but I guarantee you it’ll get spun exactly the way Seth describes it.)

So, the process will start with Georgia winning out, which means that South Carolina will need to do the same.  Then, either Missouri loses to a team in the West, creating a three-way tie at 6-2, which will be broken in the Tigers’ favor by virtue of having the best record in the division, or we’ll get an even more agonizing scenario:

If Missouri loses to Tennessee, Georgia could end up being the team that goes to Atlanta, because Georgia would be the only team that beat Tennessee. Really. This could all come down to each team’s record against Tennessee. Or Vanderbilt.

Why all this craziness? Because the fourth tiebreaker is:

Head-to-head competition vs. the team within the division with the best overall (divisional and non-divisional) Conference record and proceeding through the division. Multiple ties within the division will be broken from first to last.

Suddenly, the Tennessee-Vanderbilt game becomes critical. If Tennessee ends up ahead of Vanderbilt, then Georgia goes because it’s the only team that beat Tennessee. If Vanderbilt ends up ahead of Tennessee, then the Vanderbilt loss by Georgia knocks the Bulldogs out, and South Carolina goes based on the head-to-head with Missouri.

Before you scoff, harken back to 2007, when this stupid field goal would have been all it took for Georgia to play in the SEC title game:

Shit happens, Dawgnation.

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46 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football

46 responses to “For Georgia 2013, there’s two kinds of pessimism.

  1. Juan

    Once we lose to Auburn will you finally open your eyes to reality?

    These posts are embarrassing.

  2. MDDawg

    Among other things, our dawgs would have to win the rest of our conference games in order to make this tie-breaker scenario come in to play, right? I think we’ve got a decent shot of beating UF and I’d be somewhat surprised if we lose to Kentucky, but that Auburn game scares the crap out of me right now. Yeah I don’t think I’ll need to book tickets to Atlanta. That being said, I’d love to be proven wrong.

    • Only “somewhat surprised” by a loss to UK? Ho-kay.

      • MDDawg

        I had originally typed “shocked” instead of “somewhat surprised”, but then I talked myself out of it, lol

      • The Lone Stranger

        I think “somewhat surprised” is legitimate seeing as how UK has won 2-of-7 and two of the others were scarily close.

    • So. IL Dawg

      Everything hinges on Gurley. If healthy, our offense can keep the ball away from the Auburn offense. And they really don’t scare me. Gurley is the key!!

    • Ben

      Auburn worries me a little bit this year, but it’s the longterm thing that’s so interesting to me for them. Malzahn’s doing fine with players he recruited when he was just the OC, but how will he handle the longterm stewardship of the program? He’s not an Auburn man (is he?), so if Bert doesn’t work out in Fayetteville, will he head home to Arkansas? Will he want to have a bigger job and a bigger profile than Auburn?

      It’s so hard to tell after just one year; unfortunately, they’re clicking at the right time and we’re still going to be undermanned at that point. Even still, it’ll be pretty sweet to mess up their season.

      • Will (the other one)

        I’d say a few bigger X-factors there are:
        Micro: I think we’re letting the fact that Auburn outscored TAMU (when JFF did miss some time with an injury) color our perception of this team. They’ve got one of the easiest non-SEC schedules, avoid Florida, Sakerlina, and Missouri from the East, and were destroyed by LSU until making it close vs. backups.
        Macro: I’d say Gus is a decent shot candidate for the Texas job, and wouldn’t put it past him to leave after one year with the Barn for it. Until Saban retires (and even after he does, historically) Auburn’s the little brother in-state. Why would Texas get him? Because Brieles turns them down, and they don’t want an NFL retread.

  3. uglydawg

    These words seem to imply that the targeting calls did not hand Vandy the game…”(And before any of you pessimists of the Booker kind insist that if Georgia doesn’t go to the SECCG as a result of losing the tiebreaker, it won’t be because of the penalty calls, but because of special teams, Grantham’s incompetence, etc., well, you may be right, but I guarantee you it’ll get spun exactly the way Seth describes it.)
    Bug I Just can’t accept that it’s “spin”.. I think it’s reality. The reffs interjected themselves as participants. They were the police that helped rob the bank. Just because Georgia played a bad game, doesn’t mean they deserved to have what would have almost ceertainly been a very imortant win taken from them with shitty officiating. Yes, it’s hard for the refs tos screw you when your playing “lights out”, but when your playing borderline awful, bad calls cand (and did IMHO) cost you the game..and very possibly the SECE. I hate it when refs determine the winner and that’s exactly what happened in Nashville.

    • Russ

      I agree. I generally avoid blaming the refs but that call completely changed the game. If the refs don’t blow that call, we win a sloppy game by two touchdowns.

    • sniffer

      Referee’s have been interjecting themselves into games as long as there have been referee’s. Its not new nor different. What is new is that we all now see the same video as the umpire in the booth. And we know some calls are overturned now.

      The call on Wilson absolutely had an effect on the outcome, but it did not turn the game. Dawgs were merely competent out of the locker room, puzzled by halftime and beaten as the third quarter began. Flat, as in KY last year flat. GA loss at Vandy was a team loss, aided by two calls we don’t like and are still talking about.

      • Scorpio Jones, III

        At the risk of being called…er…what was it…ah hell, I fergit…..

        I agree sniffer, by the end of the first quarter, I was texting my son to be worried….things were just….off.

        But this view is not welcome with some of us.

        • Russ

          The vibe at Vandy was no different from many other trips to Vandy. We regularly struggle there. Remember Hoague saving out butt with a fingertip pass deflection of a sure winning TD in ’83? The difference is one ill-timed blown call that empowered Vandy and seemed to cause us to wilt. Minus that call, we win another sloppy game.

          • sniffer

            Russ, I respectfully disagree. We were inconsistent seemly the whole game and could get nothing going in the second half. Vandy players came out for the second half dancing and bouncing and we were walking zombies. We had nothing for them.

            The two penalties hurt, but neither took points off the board. The Wilson penalty kept them alive, but, good gosh, we had a chance to stop them and we couldn’t. That’s something to get upset about..

  4. Rocket Dawg

    Last I checked Allbarn was primarily a running team, our D currently ranks 3rd against the run.

    Let’s worry about the Swamp Lizards first.

  5. uglydawg

    Senator, I didn’t mean to call you “bug”…it was supposed to be “But”.
    My reply box bounces around and I cannot see what letters are actually being touched by my fat old fingers…thus all the typos.
    And I don’t think that YOU are dismissing the depth of the crime, but, yes, some will read it that way.

    • By Georgia We Did It

      This happens to me too (reply box not cooperating). Is it us or is it something on your end Senator?

  6. Beer Money

    The Senator makes a great point here. Those of our fanbase that wants to go on and on about how Vandy, Kentucky, etc. should never even be on the field with UGA and teams of “our caliber,” just look at the two plays that decided the overall outcome of the Dawgs season in 2007…this FG in a game between a mediocre UK team vs. a decent but not great UTK and the fumble we got to set up the game winning FG against VANDY. It happens. But winning narrow games on the road against these type teams is just part of what has to (sometimes) happen to make for a championship run.

    • Ed Kilgore

      Speaking of Vandy, they, too, missed a game-winning FG against the Vols in 2007. There may have been yet another by USC, if I’m not mistaken.

      More generally, it’s hard to attribute outcomes in a dynamic situation to any one factor. The Wilson call in the Vandy game, while outrageous and novel, wasn’t really any different in impact from the bad PI and PF calls (or no-calls) that happen often in SEC games. I still think the atrocious ST play (which, unlike Bobo’s play-calling or the D’s spotty performance, probably had nothing to do w/ injuries) was the key, but we all have different takes.

      • Will (the other one)

        There was. UT had a gigantic horseshoe up their ass that year. I think at least one miss was in OT too.

  7. Go Dawgs!

    It’s definitely a good thing for the program that Georgia still has a chance to get to the Dome. I love Aaron Murray and I want to see him get a ring… a real one and not a division championship ring. Granted, beating Alabama is a pretty tall order and not something I see happening with the way our defense plays.

    Still, I’m just sort of paying attention to hoping we beat our rivals. Once it gets into the realm of having to root for multiple teams to win in multiple games just to put you into a three way tie breaker scenario… let’s just go beat Florida, Dawgs. At this point, I certainly won’t be disappointed with a team that goes out there and faces the adversity and gets a third straight WLOCP win and beats Tech again and beats Auburn. If that could happen, I won’t be sad if all the other fantasies don’t come true.

  8. Lorenzo Dawgriguez

    I think we beat Florida. Mr Boom will be in for a rough week after that, aw too bad. If CTG relieves some of the confusion on D, as reported, we can stop the Gators with what we have. And after that, there is nothing better than ruining Awbuns year at their place.

  9. 1) If UGA has a shot to win the East for the third consecutive year… no matter what it takes for it to happen, and no matter the outcome when they get there… I will take it 100 times out of 100. Anybody that says they would not should ask themselves why they follow this team and this sport.

    2) The bogus targeting calls played a very important role in determining the outcome of that game, and likely the SEC East race. They certainly weren’t the only factors that led to the loss, but they were factors, and that’s a shame. Those calls will be fresh on the minds of UGA fans long after this year is over like the AJ Green celebration call (5 years ago). If Missouri loses, and tiebreakers come into play, and UGA misses out because of the Vandy loss, the impact of the targeting call will be far greater than the AJ call, and probably will go down in Georgia lore as one of the biggest screw jobs in program history along side Jasper’s “fumble.”

  10. stoopnagle

    Hey, what’s Mark Richt’s record versus Auburn? Just curious.

    BEAT FLORIDA.

  11. Will Trane

    So much for all the possibilities, the lamenting of officials calls, and the injuries. Nothing is going to change now. What I want to see is better coaching, better game preparation, better game management, better / harder execution and play. If we do that I can live with a loss, but not like that fubar in Nashville.

    • Dog in Fla

      Three days after tomorrow is another day?

    • uglydawg

      …and don’t leave out better officiating. If it had been fair, Georgia has one SEC loss. You’re exactly right though, that “Nothing is going to change now”…including me being pissed off at getting ripped off.
      The Dawgs didn’t play well in Nashville, but they win if treated fairly. If that doesn’t bother you then you won’t be able to see my point.

  12. Mayor of Dawgtown

    When the new targeting rule was announced and it was made clear that the TV review could reverse the ejection but not the 15 yards I KNEW then that Georgia would be the victim of that BS and it would cost us a game, probably a pivotal game. I know it sounds all “tinfoil hat” but I have been watching this sh!t for years. There is something going on against the University of Georgia that manifests itself on the field with bad calls at critical times by SEC game officials. I don’t know who is behind it or why. It could be as simple as the SEC refs are pissed off at CMR about the endzone stomping incident at the ’07 WLOCP, but I don’t really think that’s it because the cheating calls predate 2007. It could be the Jasper Sanks fumble/non-fumble against Georgia Tech that spawned the complaint from UGA AD Vince Dooley that got the crew of refs suspended from the post-season and the Referee of that crew, Al Ford, kicked out as a referee. That is more likely, but again, the crooked calls seem to predate that event, too. It could be as simple as alums of our most hated foes have permeated the ranks of SEC game officials, but I don’t really know if that is the answer, either. I don’t know, but have long suspected, that SEC refs are betting on games and I believe they are doing so in a manner that causes them to select UGA as a target for point-shaving and bad calls, probably because of some sort of grudge, and if they are going to fix a game, why not fix one that hurts a team you dislike. I do know this, though: As long as our chickensh!t AD and (God Bless him) our turn-the-other-cheek HC continue to just take it, it will not stop. If the SEC office won’t do anything to stop it and we can’t get a governmental body to conduct a grand jury investigation, the University itself should hire private investigators to get to the bottom of this.

  13. JRW7

    The really good football teams, aka Bama, never have to worry about bad calls changing the outcome of the game!