Golden Nugget likes Georgia.

The Golden Nugget has published lines on its 2014 college football games of the year.  Here’s where Georgia starts out:

  • Clemson, +9
  • South Carolina, -3
  • Tennessee, +17
  • Vanderbilt, +24
  • Missouri, +7
  • Arkansas, +14.5
  • Florida, +9
  • Auburn, +1
  • Georgia Tech, +14

One game as a dog, and that’s basically chalked up to home field advantage.  The other three games are Kentucky and two cupcakes, so if Georgia lives up to the lines, you’re looking at an 11-1 regular season there.  Takers?

Chase Stuart plugs all 200 games into his SRS formula to come up with a set of preliminary rankings, and spits Georgia out as a number seven.  (That leaves Georgia as the best team in the East, but only fourth best in the conference.)  I’d probably argue that’s a little low for a team that only loses once and beats Auburn, but what do I know?

Obviously, take this for what’s it’s worth, but if you think Vegas is pretty good making these kinds of assessments, well, then…

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24 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!, What's Bet In Vegas Stays In Vegas

24 responses to “Golden Nugget likes Georgia.

  1. DawgPhan

    Obviously 11-1 would be great. It would be better than great. It might be enough for a playoff spot.

    The lines seem pretty normal to me. I guess the sharps dont think much of Clemson this season, same with Mizzou.

    Insert comment about vegas not predicting games, but gambling trends

  2. RC

    I worry ever so slightly that Clemson may for once be able to fashion a defense of some consequence this year, and that might not jibe well with our offense-in-progress, with it’s re-fashioned OL and a still wt behind the ears QB. If my fears bear out, this year’s game could prove to be the dead opposite of last year’s pinball game scorefest.

  3. Macallanlover

    And you wonder why UGA is often accused of underachieving. Vastly overstated with the 11 eleven wins and the margin of victory, imo. Do we have potential for this to be reality? Winning the East, yes, winning as many as 11 games, it’s possible, but it means that every single question we have gets answered positively and that we don’t lose key players for key games. We are much to close to last year for me to buy into that.

    • Skeptic Dawg

      Mac, I think you are spot on. Far too many question marks for anyone predict 11 wins at this stage. Possible, yes. Likely, no. I believe 8-4 is closer to the mark that 11-1. Early growing pains offensively vs Clemson and USC may very well be too much for this team to overcome. And least we forget the shortcomings in the secondary. Losses to Clemson, USC, Auburn and one more along the way = 8-4.

      • Macallanlover

        Too early for an exact assessment, this summer camp will provide more perspective for me, but I feel Clemson is a W based on what I see now. They have a DL strength that will challenge us but they got hammered pretty hard on offense so I like the Dawgs at home. Nine point favorites would make that a “no play” for me. We can certainly win that game by more than nine but it is an opening game after all and this series usually produces exciting finishes.

        If you read PS’s CFB preview he is very optimistic on UGA and has them his #1 team to surprise in 2014, winning the East, and finishing #7 in the nation. His past record for finding hidden “nuggets” on his “teams to surprise” list is pretty impressive (he picked FSU in the spring last year to win it all along with several other early calls over the years.)

      • Early growing pains offensively vs Clemson ……..

        There, I think, is the key to the Clemson game. Maybe South Carolina, but I think the offense will be settled down enough by that game. Win the first two, and you control everything. Carolina might be 50-50, even if we are well prepared and play well. So it could happen, there’s a heckuva good chance.

        But the biggest key to the Clemson game is how well we will be prepared offensively? The offense hasn’t been smooth enough to win a big opener since 2007. That’s what I worry about, just being well enough prepared offensively, as a unit.

        If we play a solid game, we should beat Clemson. Playing solid in an opener would be something very different, but a very good sign, and would increase our chances in Columbia, IMO. So that’s what I’m hoping for.
        ~~~

        • uglydawg

          First play of the game against Clemson. Play fake to Gurley and hit someone streaking across the middle.
          Second play…Play fake to Gurley, Mason turns his back to los..takes a step, turns and shovel-passes to Fullback.
          Third play of game…Mason rolls right on the option sweep and pitches to Gurley.
          forth play…extra point is good.

          • uglydawg

            fourth…got too much rum in this coolaid. But’s it’s good. My favorite flavor, Bulldawg Red.

  4. Slaw Dawg

    OH MY GAWD, now we are totally, officially screwed and cursed. What next, Todd Gurley on the cover of SI?

  5. PTC DAWG

    Sign me up…and no f’n way we lose to the Barn this year….i don’t care how skeptical you are. :)

    • uglydawg

      I’ve a gut feeling that Auburn can’t repeat the charmed year it experience last year. I hope they lose everygame.
      It pisses me off that the prevailing wind in my part of Georgia is coming from the direction of Auburn….phew! About as bad as being downwind of Tallahassee.

  6. stoopnagle

    I’d take all of those double-digit points save Arkie. I’d probably take Clemson +9, too. Yeah, don’t think I’m a big fan of these lines.

  7. Scorpio Jones, III

    Let’s see here…a quarterback who has not been good enough to start for four years, but now is. An offensive line that gives even Blutarsky the willies. Decent kicking game. A defense that has lost more players than it can field behind the front seven and with the prospect of true freshman playing against both Clemson and South Carolina.

    Great running backs, though, when they are healthy.

    And this is an 11-1 team.

    Its gonna be a long year, boys.

    • Just curious – before you slit your wrists, have you turned your keen observational powers towards Clemson and SC and noticed what they’ve lost, too?

      What’s the old saying? Oh, yeah, familiarity breeds contempt. ;)

      • Scorpio Jones, III

        You mean, I guess, I know too much about Georgia?

        • No. You don’t know enough about Georgia’s opponents.

          • Mayor

            The first 2 games are key. Win both and the team’s players will think they can run through walls and likely will probably go undefeated, at least up to the Auburn game. Lose both and they probably lose to Mizzou and Auburn, plus possibly one or two more. Go 1-1, well they did that last season and if they do that again you can expect a similar result. This is a season on the precipice IMHO.

            • Cojones

              Do you mean that we will have all the injuries back? Odds would favor that not happening two yrs in a row. If we go 1-1, it’s a return to last year and I’m all in favor of seeing how we would have done last year with all the troops on the field. Didn’t you notice that the fan base was depressed about all the injuries, yet, they didn’t call for Richt’s and Bobo’s heads as they did the yrs before? Everyone should quit using that W-L record like it represented our true coached potential.

          • Scorpio Jones, III

            I sho do hope you right about that.

  8. Hobnail_Boot

    9-pt favorite over Florida??

    Lord in heaven..

    • uglydawg

      Look at all his picks for the year. He doesn’t think much of Florida or Tennessee. His pics pretty much look like a hang over from last year.
      I’m going to go back and look at what he thinks about Auburn and LSU.

  9. Mayor

    The Nugget picks FU to go 7-5 this coming regular season including a win over Mizzou. I basically agree but I don’t think FU should be favored over Missouri and have the Gators going 6-6 in the regular season, losing to Mizzou. Look for a possible upset at the hands of UT, though, which would lead to a 5-7 FU mark and a bus ticket out of town for Boom.