There’s lucky. There’s good. And there’s Auburn’s schedule.

As you might expect, Bill Connelly’s Auburn preview is a fun read (“You’ve got to be able to say this, Auburn fans: We were lucky as hell last year.“).  What you might not expect is how much weight is being given to Auburn’s schedule this season.

Let’s put it this way: Auburn travels to Manhattan, Kan., on a Thursday night on national television, to face a raucous crowd and a team that has specialized in slowing Baylor down more than most. And that’s perhaps Auburn’s fifth-hardest game in 2014.

Let’s put it another way: in this year’s Football Outsiders Almanac 2014, Auburn is projected ninth in the country, with the No. 6 offense; the Tigers’ projected record: 8-4. At ninth in the country. Auburn is given a five percent chance of matching or exceeding last season’s 11-1 mark and, again, at ninth in the country, a seven percent chance of finishing 6-6 or worse.

Well, dayum.  I don’t see Auburn finishing anywhere in the vicinity of scraping by with bowl eligibility.  Then again, Bill makes me wonder if the narrative about this year’s SEC West hinted at yesterday in my post about the Athlon article may have some legs.

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34 Comments

Filed under Auburn's Cast of Thousands, Stats Geek!

34 responses to “There’s lucky. There’s good. And there’s Auburn’s schedule.

  1. AthensHomerDawg

    After going 3-9 and shut out by both Georgia and Alabama a lot of sports authorities were picking the Barners to get 6 in 2013 and win a minor bowl somewhere. Ole Lady Luck disagreed.

  2. JCDAWG83

    Auburn was 3 plays away from going 8-4 in 2013. While that would have been a big improvement over 2012, I don’t think we’d be reading so many articles about how Gus is a genius.

  3. I Wanna Red Cup

    AU will have a good team, but I think with their schedule they will lose 3. Hoping one of those losses is to the Dawgs. If Marshall gets hurt they will lose more.

  4. Spike

    Here’s hoping they lose every one. A man can dream can’t he?

  5. Goat Balls

    What am I missing here? The Auburn people play LSU, Bama, Georgia, Carolina, and A&M. Ok, and the Mississippi teams. The rest are patsies and I ain’t impressed. They don’t even have to play those scumbag gators.

    • I saw a thing where K-State has a senior QB & I know a good coach. Mix in some Thursday nite magic & I could see some trouble there.

      • Macallanlover

        Home “dogs” are magic on Thursday nights. Hope they kick the cheaters’ butts badly, but will take a quintuple OT Kansas State win.

  6. Cojones

    Last year, like the previous two, Murray was never doubted in that game. Auburn could score and we knew that Murray could take us down the field again, no matter the time left on the clock. There was no reason to get upset since Aub was Aub in Murray’s scenario of “Make’em pay” revenge. That was a luxury of the Dawg fan’s mind at the time and for that reason we don’t view them the same way as when Murray had their number.

    Take heart from the continued articles proclaiming “luck” had a lot to do with it. I’ll bet that Hutson will make believers out of us for this year’s Aub game in the same vein as we believed in Murray. By the time that game rolls around, we will be stoked again because Aub will again exhibit what we believed was true last year and we will “Make’em pay” sans luck.

  7. 3rdandGrantham

    Make no mistake about it–AU’s schedule is brutal. Just compare that (or any SEC schedule) to Ohio State’s. What a complete joke and they should not get into the final four even if/when they go undefeated.

  8. joe

    I have been trying to figure out why everyone assumes auburn is going to be good this year. They were an 8-4 team last year that caught lightning in a bottle.They had a good group of seniors who bought in to a new regime after the debacle of 2012.

    For all of the “genius” talk around malzhan, he puckered and gave away the georgia game in the 2nd half with a series of abominable play calling.

    They had a kid at de who had a Marcus Howard season. Robinson left and one of their starting guards is out for the season.

    I think 8-4 is about right for them again this year.

    • uglydawg

      As I mentioned above…the way AU handled ‘Bama is the thing that has to be explained. I never thought the Barners were legit until then…and I’m looking for a reason to believe they’ll be down.

      • Dog in Fla

        “…and I’m looking for a reason to believe they’ll be down.”

        I’m going with for the good of humanity

  9. AusDawg85

    I just want to give them a beat down like the last time between the hedges.

  10. Re the Athlon article. C’mon, Senator. :)

    Some of the comments may have been accurate, but, in general, they look like they were made before spring practice and by the teams’ equipment managers.

    Concerning Ole Miss, well, it’s possible they make a move. Even Phil Steele is giving them some love. But that is based, I think, on two things: Bo Wallace taking his play up a level and how much A&M stumbles.

    Auburn will be very good this year, regardless of the schedule. They have a good OL, very good QB and they are sold out to their scheme. Plus, they have the motivation of a last second loss in the national championship game. (Man, it felt good to type that last part.)

  11. AthensHomerDawg

    I think we all have had a taste of the last second LOSS Georgia with 33 ticks on the clock tips a pass that goes 78 yards for a heart breaker. Especially painful after Murray gives up his body and all the heart in the world to put us back in the game.
    Alabama with 32 clicks on the clock lets Davis get loose for a 109 yard kick 6. Ironic that it was Davis again against FSU that was popped for holding which gave FSU a first and ten on the 2. With 18 seconds left there was no doubt that FSU was gonna score. Ole Lady Luck is a fickle woman and she lifted her skirt and gave FSU a peak.

    • Scorpio Jones, III

      The Kharmic Bitches won an award for last season, they screwed with every game as much as they could.

      What a wierd freaking year for them what believes in the supernatural in football.

  12. Scorpio Jones, III

    Oh boy, Oh boy….we get to see what the wide-tackle six defense does against the Beelzebub Spread…what a great way to spend a Thursday night.

  13. Has anyone actually heard an Auburn fan say they got lucky last year? I have only heard that FSU got super lucky to beat them. Otherwise they won on their own merit and didn’t get any breaks.

    • Bulldawg165

      All the ones I’ve talked to said the UGA game was luck.

      I don’t agree with most people about the Bama game though. The way they won the game was definitely odd but they wouldn’t have lost the game without that play. Based on the way their offense was going I’d have given them the slight edge in OT.

      • Macallanlover

        I think your analysis is right, AU would have been tough to beat at home in an OT in that Bama game. I am one who thinks Saban did the right thing trying the FG, Malzahn just did a better job of coaching on the Kick 6 play…he thought about his personnel if the kick was short, Little Nicky didn’t. Oddly, the play that beat UGA is probably the play that beat the Tide as well. It rejuvenated an Auburn team and made them believe they were a team of destiny; otherwise I think they would have gone into the Iron Bowl and hoped to not be embarrassed. As it was, they came in to finish the unlikely dream.

  14. As much as dislike Auburn’ it still does my heart good that thy beat the lnvncible Alabama.. Long live the Iron Bowl…àt least one of them has to lose.