Garbage in, garbage out.

One of the complaints about the BCS computer formulas was that the machines weren’t allowed to take margin of victory into account, presumably because the little fellows couldn’t distinguish between legitimate dominance and a team just trying to run the score up to impress the voters.  The problem with doing that was that it skewed the ratings.  Like it or not, margin of victory is an indicator of relative excellence.

So now that we’ve overthrown the tyranny of the machines and allowed humans, with their much greater ability to appreciate deliberate manipulation of scores, does that mean they’ve done away with that silliness for the selection committee?

Get outta here!

  • Principles.  The committee will select the teams using a process that distinguishes among otherwise comparable teams by considering:

    • Conference championships won,

    • Strength of schedule,

    • Head-to-head competition,

    • Comparative outcomes of common opponents (without incenting margin of victory), and,  [Emphasis added.]

    • Other relevant factors such as key injuries that may have affected a team’s performance during the season or likely will affect its postseason performance.

Now, admittedly, this could be bullshit, and likely is.  But that they’ve gone to the trouble to codify it makes it hard to take the results any more seriously than we did with the BCS rankings.

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15 Comments

Filed under BCS/Playoffs

15 responses to “Garbage in, garbage out.

  1. W Cobb Dawg

    If “key injuries” were a factor, we would’ve played in the mnc last year (when I say last year, of course I mean this year). Considering we never run up the score either, I think this formula works quite well for us. I’ll go ahead and book my trip to Dallas now…

    • uglydawg

      My thoughts exactly, W Cobb Dog. These people are so smart they will be able to know what games a team would have won without key injuries…and count it to that teams favor.
      This is beginning to look like it’s being made-up as it goes along..
      And where the crap is the consideration for “bad calls by refs” in the equation? Georgia would damn sure have been in it with that parameter.

  2. Dog in Fla

    The folks in this Loan Committee lineup have Luddite and conflict of interest written all over them

    http://www.collegefootballplayoff.com/selection-committee

  3. Using margin of victory alone in 2012, I knew Bama was going to wear ND out before they even teed it up in Miami. Bama beat Michigan like a drum the first week of the season. ND played them a week or two later and barely escaped with a win. How can the committee not take margin of victory into account especially when they look at a common opponent?

    This committee looks more like a disaster in the making every time they release more information about how it’s going to work.

    • Dog in Fla

      “As we expand from two teams to four teams we want to establish a human selection committee that: (1) will be provided a clear set of guidelines; (2) will be expected to take the facts of each case and specifically apply the guidelines; and (3) will be led by a Chairperson who will be expected to explain publicly the committee’s decisions.”

      Best news: humans and Chairperson’s expected to explain publicly the decisions of the humans.

    • uglydawg

      It’s the politically correct thing to do…we musn’t encourage “beat downs” of weaker teams by stronger teams. It’s pure and simple bullshit.
      But the committee will “remember” epic beatdowns, esp. when the memory serves the purpose of getting specific teams into the bubble.
      It’s gonna suck.
      Don’t miss 83s, 81s and 69’s comments below this.

  4. 81Dog

    is “incenting” really a word? It sounds like another consultant-created verbing of a noun. I hate when they do that. I guess consultants have to justify their big fees somehow, and creating new words “creates value in the creative space” by incenting their pigeons, errrr, clients, to cashify their bills.

    Senator, a guy in my first year class transferred back to UVA for their joint JD/MBA program. I am told after second year, he interned as a consultant for a large bakery in the New York area. After a summer of watching, learning, studying and critiquing their operation for possible ways to maximize their profits, his job was to write a report outlining ways to improve efficiency and thus cashify the pockets of the bakery managers and shareholders. After three months of careful study, thought and planning, he turned in his report to his supervisor. It could be summarized nicely, it was related to me, with the following premise: “In order to maximize profits, you guys need to sell more bread.”

    Now that is some incenting for your corporate ass, n’est pas?

  5. JCDAWG83

    Think or say what you like. The selection committee is going to choose four teams from four different conferences in different areas of the country. The goal of this latest sham of a “playoff” is to increase viewership and ad revenue for televised college football. Until the playoff is a true 8 team, tournament style format with conference champions facing each other, college football’s top division will continue to have a “mythical” national champion.

    • 81Dog

      They just did this for the money?!?!

      The horror. The horror.

      PS: you’re completely right. 2 SEC teams will get in about the same time the sun expands and consumes the solar system. At least we will get to see the Big Integer get its slow, corn fed ass handed to it regularly.

  6. 69Dawg

    This whole playoff was put together to stop the SEC from ever having 2 teams in the games ever again. That’s why they must make sure to discount the second best SEC team through out the process so that they don’t get painted into a corner by having to drop them out late. The SEC Champ is in all other SEC teams are out, bank it.

  7. Macallanlover

    I have always felt margin of victory should be a factor but capped at 3 TDs. Coaches ahead by that amount would not be “incented” to win by more than 4 TDs (to allow a cushion above the 3 TDs mark) and could rest players, run the clock, and allow reserves to get playing time. When a game gets beyond 21 point differences it brings in to play factors that work to allow even more points by the dominant team (desperation offensive tactics, going for first downs when you should punt, etc.) Since pollsters cannot totally ignore the blowout games like computers did they might as well tell coaches where the cutoff point is and 21-28 points is a dominant win in football.