Category Archives: Stats Geek!

The continuing saga of Bill Connelly’s SEC projections

From our selfish standpoints, the one big change in Bill’s picture is that he’s now showing Auburn with a 68% chance of winning in Athens.  Missouri projects to having less than a nine percent chance of going 7-1, so the odds of Georgia playing in the SECCG are still strong.

The West still looks like it’s up for grabs, and will probably stay that way until the end of the regular season.  Fun times for all…

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Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

Great turnover margin plus field position management

… makes an offense one efficient mofo.


Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

Day late and a calculation short

It’s just Georgia’s luck.  The year the computers are falling all over themselves loving the Dawgs is the year college football is going totally subjective with a selection committee picking the postseason field.


Filed under BCS/Playoffs, Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

Defense is getting buttah and buttah.

Giving the devil his due, it’s fair to say that Todd Grantham is having a helluva year as Louisville’s defensive coordinator.  Just because I’m surprised doesn’t mean he doesn’t deserve credit.  (In fact, you could make a good case that he’s earned his million dollar paycheck more than his boss has.)

But as a Georgia fan, that’s not very important to me.  What is important is how the job Jeremy Pruitt is doing this year compares to what Grantham turned in on that front last season.  And from that perspective, it’s no contest.  Pruitt is crushing Grantham.

… Below are the major defensive categories with their averages as well as their national ranking. The first number is the 2013 Grantham defense and the second is the 2014 Pruitt Defense. I have placed the better statistic in bold.

  • Points Per Game: 29 (79th) / 20 (19th)

  • Yards Allowed Per Game: 375 (45th) / 320 (16th)

  • Rush Yards Allowed Per Game: 148 (43rd) / 105 (16th)

  • Pass Yards Allowed Per Game: 227 (59th) / 215 (46th)

  • Interceptions: 7 ALL YEAR (109th) / 10 THROUGH 7 GAMES (13th)

  • Fumbles Forced: 10 ALL YEAR (75th) / 6 THOUGH 7 GAMES (52nd)

  • Turnover Margin: -7 (101st) / +13 (1st)

  • Tackles for Loss: 81 ALL YEAR (45th) / 45 THROUGH 7 GAMES (45th)

  • Sacks: 33 ALL YEAR (29th) / 18 THROUGH 7 GAMES (33rd)

  • Passes Broken Up: 55 ALL YEAR (62nd) / 32 THROUGH 7 GAMES (60th) 

  • 3rd Down Conversion %: 39.49% (64th) / 30.61% (18th)

The first item on that list is the most important, of course.  And that nine-point difference is huge.  How huge?  This huge:

Georgia is 9 points better on defense than it was in 2013. If you take 9 points off of all 5 Georgia losses in 2013, Georgia wins against Clemson, Vandy, Auburn, and Nebraska. That is pretty significant when you look at it from that perspective. What that really means is that Georgia is 2 scoring possessions better than 2013 and that is pretty impressive.

Again, to be fair, I don’t think you can chalk all of that up to a change in defensive coordinators.  Shoring up special teams play has also contributed to that swing in defensive scoring.  But in any event, I think it’s okay to be happy with the switch from Grantham to Pruitt now.


Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

Bill Connelly’s updated conference projections

As you can imagine, they’re a lot more fun to read after the Arkansas game.

  • Georgia is the only team in the East with better than a 50% chance to go 7-1 in the conference.
  • Bill now has Georgia listed as a favorite in all of its remaining SEC matches, including Auburn.  (He assigns Florida a 2.6% chance of winning in Jax.)

The number that really jumps out at me is that he projects Ole Miss to have better than a 50% chance to run the table.  Out of the SEC West.  Wow.


Filed under Georgia Football, SEC Football, Stats Geek!

Wednesday morning buffet

It’s a Gurley-free buffet, if that helps.

  • This is awkward.
  • Steve Hummer’s assessment of the psyche of Georgia’s fan base is pretty good:  “Georgia people habitually expect the worst. They can never relax. They can never wander the sunflower fields of blind optimism. They just know deep down that around every corner awaits a kick to a most sensitive area.”
  • The advanced box score of the Florida-Missouri game is as amazing to see as the game was.
  • And the advanced box score of the Arkansas-Georgia game is just what you’d expect.
  • Devin Gardner’s comment about the number of racist fans he’s encountered this season puts me in mind of Randy Newman’s “Rednecks”.  Hang in there, Devin.  You’re a classy kid.
  • “We found out that ball is an incredibly important part of the game of football and we didn’t secure it the way we needed to on offense and it paid off for them,” Arkansas offensive coordinator Jim Chaney said.  Better late than never, I guess.
  • When it comes to scoring this season, Georgia is a damned efficient team.


Filed under Arkansas Is Kind Of A Big Deal, Big 12 Football, General Idiocy, Georgia Football, Media Punditry/Foibles, Stats Geek!

The conversion of Jeff Sagarin

Remember when everybody used to complain that Sagarin was biased in favor of the Pac-12?  Not anymore.

College Football 2014 through games of October 18 Saturday                                                                          
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 | GOLDEN_MEAN  | PREDICTOR    | ELO_SCORE  
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  3.23]                                               [  3.16]       [  3.39]       [  3.13]
   1  Mississippi          A  =  97.20    7   0   74.95(  13)    1   0  |    3   0  |   95.44    3 |   96.08    1 |   97.30    1
   2  Alabama              A  =  96.91    6   1   77.11(   9)    0   1  |    3   1  |   96.42    1 |   95.68    2 |   95.62    4
   3  Auburn               A  =  96.55    5   1   79.22(   3)    0   1  |    2   1  |   95.93    2 |   94.43    3 |   96.74    2
   4  Mississippi State    A  =  93.52    6   0   73.84(  20)    1   0  |    3   0  |   93.64    5 |   89.83    7 |   96.26    3
   5  Georgia              A  =  92.44    6   1   74.64(  14)    0   0  |    3   0  |   92.46    6 |   92.60    4 |   89.74    7


Filed under SEC Football, Stats Geek!