Get that ball and go.

Going back to something Grantham said the other night…

“We actually created six turnovers and we were plus-3 for the game,” Grantham said. “In this league, when you turn the ball over you’re going to have a hard time winning. The last two years we’ve had 62 (takeaways), which is second only to LSU. If we’re plus-1 since I’ve been here we’re right around 92 percent win. It’s a critical point, we emphasize it and we work it every day. It’s a part of the game. You have to protect the football.”  [Emphasis added.]

… you might find this analysis about SEC turnover margin at MrSEC.com of interest.  Over the last six seasons, here’s what a team’s chances of winning a conference game look like if it wins the turnover battle:

Turnover Margin	Wins	Losses	Winning %
Plus 1	74	29	71.8
Plus 2	52	13	80.0
Plus 3 or more	55	7	88.7

Grantham’s percentage, you may note, is considerably higher than that, which makes sense if you think about it.  Positive territory for turnovers is an equalizer for the weaker teams, and an added boost for stronger ones.  (Of course, there will always be some teams for which you just have to toss the stats out the window.  But I digress.)

Georgia’s been second, third and fifth in the conference in turnover margin during Grantham’s time.  It’s been anywhere from plus-seven to plus-eleven in that period.  Given our expectations for the offense and defense in 2013, maintaining that consistency is likely to be a big deal.  Two keys to that:  on the offensive side, Aaron Murray needs to cut down on the picks, and on the defensive side, somebody needs to step up and assume the mantle from Justin Houston and Jarvis Jones of putting pressure on opposing quarterbacks/backfields.

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Friday morning buffet

You’ve just about made it through another working week.  Reward yourself by indulging in a few of these tasty morsels:

• Jeremy Hill’s lawyer thinks “them’s fightin’ words!” will make for a good defense in a criminal assault case.
• Will Friend thinks offensive line chemistry is overrated.
• The SEC has a new plan for lesser bowls:  the conference will pick the participants and will force lower ticket guarantees.
• The NCAA puts the kibosh on hash tags on football fields.
• If the general rule of thumb is that two starting quarterbacks are one too many, then Gus Malzahn has a problem.
• This year has seen a record number of early enrollees.
• When it comes to openers and bye weeks, Mark Richt’s teams have been above average.
• Pat Dye:  SEC! SEC! SEC!

Tuesday morning buffet

Mercifully, it’s a Tebow-free buffet.

• “The cool thing is I would’ve beat the crap out of my body and now I don’t have to,” Pollack said. “I couldn’t do what (David) Greene has done and be an insurance guy. I have to have football in me and it’s in my blood. If I weren’t doing this I’d be coaching.”
• Here’s a suggestion to let current players serve on the selection committee.  Would they be paid for that?
• David Greene likes what he sees out of Georgia’s offense.
• How bad was Auburn’s offensive line last season?  This bad:  “Ball carriers got back to the line of scrimmage less than 80% of the time…”
• Fighting the NCAA – it’s not just for Jerry Tarkanian anymore.
• Athlon ranks the SEC running backs, and Georgia finds itself with #1 and #4 on the list.
• Before you ask yourself what kids like Bray and Geathers were thinking by leaving school early for the NFL draft, consider that they could have taken steps to keep the option of returning to college after the draft, but chose not to do so.
• Tech fans, the AJ-C has your consolation for the lousy draft right here.
• Mark Schlabach’s preseason top 25 list (I know, I know) is ordered by which teams have the easiest path to an undefeated season, which is how you get Ohio State at number one and Louisville fourth.
• Or if you’d prefer to look at another man’s win projections for next season’s top 25, here you go.

Thursday morning buffet

Simple.  Nourishing.

• Finally, a media headline about college footballers not making money that points the finger in the NFL’s direction.
• Over the past five years, Georgia has been one of the slower offenses in the game.  But things have been speeding up recently.
• More Willie Martinez love:  “No Georgia defensive player has gone before the third round since the Indianapolis selected cornerback Tim Jennings in 2006 in round two with the 62nd overall pick.”
• It’s nice that the Peach Bowl name will be making a reappearance, but the BCS commissioners’ fixation with naming is getting a little weird.
• Richt says J.J. Green will stay on offense.  One thing about Green that impressed me at G-Day was that he showed good hands snagging a high, hard pass.  If he can offer some blitz protection, he definitely looks like a contributor on passing downs.
• You know this is shit Nick Saban doesn’t have time for.
• Sounds like Bill Hancock’s gotten a little sensitive about the old order he’s been defending:  “There are two letters that are not associated with this name,” Hancock said.  Hey, nobody ever said being a flack was easy.
• NCAA ponders waiving the waiver process for 6-7 teams that want to go bowling.

Thursday morning buffet

Come and get it.

• Bill Snyder says college football “was in a bad place”, then goes on to claim that the sport can self-correct.  That makes him half-right.
• “Recruiting is still all about relationships.”  Some relationships make me want to fwow up, I guess.
• The 2012 Charting Project takes a look at fourth down plays.
• Vandalism at Williams-Brice!
• Today’s wait, what? moment comes from Auburn WR Sammie Coates, who claims “… we’ve got the best wide receivers group, I think, around.”
• Sammie, here’s what a good receiving corps looks like.
• Mike Leach says the conferences are all the same, except for one thing about the SEC.
• Mark Sanford uses football as an excuse to trespass on his ex-wife’s property.
• For an undefeated team, Ohio State was kind of meh in conference play last season.  (Of course, you could say the entire conference was kind of meh in conference play last season.)

Today’s blame Bobo statistical tidbit

Points per red zone possession, circa 2012:

Best thing about that is all the weapons that made that work so well last season should be in place for 2013, too.

Joe Cox would like this post.

Chase Stuart, in a post about pick six rates in college, compiles this chart:

Year	Pick 6	INT	Att	INT Rate	Pick 6 Rt
2012	159	1532	54545	2.8%	10.4%
2011	159	1490	51339	2.9%	10.7%
2010	159	1589	49776	3.2%	10%
2009	158	1537	49872	3.1%	10.3%
2008	162	1606	49828	3.2%	10.1%
2007	167	1711	52993	3.2%	9.8%
2006	163	1569	46011	3.4%	10.4%

You know what’s striking there?  In an era of ever more wide open offenses, interception rates have declined.

There are some good quarterbacks and coaches out there these days.  Vince Dooley may have to revisit his mantra of what can happen when you throw the ball.

Thursday morning buffet

Short line, but tasty.

• Josh Harvey-Clemons has a metabolism problem.  I hate him for that.
• More Aaron Murray stat trivia.
• Aw, shucks.
• “That is going to blow a lot of phones up.”
• Check out this fun exercise over at the College Football Matrix blog winnowing out the eleven teams that are most likely to play for a national title this season.
• Non-football, but if there’s a funnier punchline in a recent crime story than “Sebring Police Cmdr. Steve Carr said police did not arrest the dog…”, I haven’t seen it.

The price of pressure

Any post that references my favorite play of last season is going to get a mention here.

photo via USA TODAY Sports

So check out Football Study Hall‘s look at what happens when defenses rush more than four players.

The most overrated defensive statistic in this year’s SEC East?

It just might be returning tacklers.

Tennessee leads the division with eight of its top ten guys coming back.  The bad news for the Vols is that magic didn’t work last season.

Tennessee returned 12 of its top 15 tacklers from 2011 and proceeded to have its worst defensive showing in school history last season. The Vols finished 107th nationally in total defense and gave up 37 or more points in eight of their 12 games.

And UT will be on its third defensive coordinator in as many years.  That doesn’t bode well.

Meanwhile, none of the three presumed division leaders bring back many of their top tacklers:  Florida will miss five of its top six, Georgia loses its top four and South Carolina loses the top four and six of the top eight.

Maybe it’s Vanderbilt by default.  The Commodores weren’t bad last year and their top three tacklers and six of their top seven are coming back.