Category Archives: Stats Geek!

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Filed under Coach O Needs Another Red Bull, Crime and Punishment, Gators, Gators..., Georgia Football, Media Punditry/Foibles, Political Wankery, Recruiting, Stats Geek!

Just when I thought I was out, Brian Fremeau pulls me back in.

If you’ve had enough of Georgia’s final offensive possession in Columbia, I would suggest you skip this post.

I’m an avid reader of Football Outsiders, so when I saw that Brian had posted something about the game, I couldn’t resist checking it out.  I wish I hadn’t.  It’s just one depressing stat after another:

  1. “But an interception that sets up the offense on the doorstep of the end zone is significant. Swann’s play added 4.9 points of scoring value for Georgia. Had the Bulldogs been able to capitalize with a touchdown, most of the value gained would have belonged to Swann and the defense.In terms of possession value, Georgia had already “taken the lead” on the play. To fail to score a touchdown, or to fail to score at all would be equivalent to taking points off the board.”
  2. “On non-garbage possessions since 2007, offenses have scored points on 92.6 percent of drives that began inside the opponent’s 5-yard line. Offenses scored touchdowns on 60.1 percent of drives started at or inside the opponent’s 20-yard line. In the same span leading up to the South Carolina game, Georgia started 20 drives in the red zone and scored a touchdown on 16 of them (80 percent). They scored a touchdown on all six of their non-garbage drives started at or inside the opponent’s 5-yard line from 2007 to 2013.”  [Emphasis added.]
  3. “How much is a field-goal attempt worth from the opponent’s 11-yard line? College kickers are successful on approximately 85 percent of attempts from that distance since 2007. A successful kick puts three points on the scoreboard, but only 0.5 of those points are earned by the kicker from that yard line. The other 2.5 points were earned by the units that set up the kick. In this case, Swann’s interception set up 5.8 points of scoring value, and the offense lost 3.3 points. A successful kick would tie the game. An unsuccessful kick would blow the remaining 2.5 points of value the defense had generated.”
  4. “Georgia’s net field position-value advantage for the game was 9.4 points. Their net turnover value generated for the game was 8.7 points. Only four teams last season had advantages at least that large in field position and turnovers and still lost the game.”

Soooooo… to sum things up, the defense delivers a play that should have given Georgia the lead, the offense squanders that by doing something a Bobo-coached offense had never done before and Morgan wraps it up.  Now that’s teamwork.

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Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

It’s not just how much you run…

in the Georgia-South Carolina series.  It’s how well you run, too.

In the last nine meetings, Georgia averages 4.3 yards per carry in wins against South Carolina and just 3.8 yards per carry in losses. The Gamecocks, meanwhile, average 4.6 yards per carry in wins; 3.4 in losses. The team that cracks 4.0 yards per carry wins.

It’s worth noting that last year South Carolina averaged 6.3 yards per rush, but still lost.  (Georgia averaged 4.3 ypc.)  So it’s better just to say that the winning team averages over four yards a pop on the ground.

In any event, Georgia needs to run the ball well.

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Filed under 'Cock Envy, Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

BREAKING: Stat guy likes Georgia’s chances.

Georgia is Brian Fremeau’s SEC team with the best chance at emerging from the regular season with an 11-1 or 12-0 record (42 percent).  Part of that is due to the likelihood that the West will cannibalize itself more than the East, to be sure.  Anyway, if Georgia wins on Saturday, expect the national attention already being paid to the program to intensify significantly.

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Your small sample size stat of the day

I know, I know… we’re only two games in, but check out who’s last in the SEC in defensive third down conversions.  Then, check out the national stats.  Astoundingly bad.

Most of the bleeding is coming on passing plays where the opponent needs less than 10 yards to pick up the first down.  Opponents are 11 of 18 converting in those situations.

You can question Mason and the receivers all you want, but that’s the kind of distance situation Georgia’s passing game is more than capable of handling.  Especially with a better running threat to brace it than either of South Carolina’s previous opponents have.  I expect Bobo will come prepared to exploit it.

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Filed under 'Cock Envy, Stats Geek!

This week in South Carolina

Team Speed Kills notes that, based on Brian Fremeau’s FEI metric, South Carolina should easily dispose of East Carolina tomorrow (40-14).  I agree that the Gamecock offense should put up some points.  The question is what we should expect on the other side of the ball.

The larger area of concern for South Carolina fans is the defense. The systemic failure of last week is attributable to a number of factors: no pass rush, poor tackling, and young corners. The poor pass rush can be explained by Texas A&M’s stellar offensive line, while young corners will almost always be a match-up problem for Texas A&M’s offense. The head-scratching linebacker issues aren’t as easily dismissed. This unit was expected to a strength of this team, but their poor tackling and pass coverage was a surprised. Could their play also be attributed to match-up problems?

We’ll find out as ECU’s offense is another pass-heavy offense that will look to test South Carolina. ECU returns a quarterback and its two leading receivers, but South Carolina should be a mismatch in the trenches as ECU lost three starters, two of which were first and second team C-USA selections. ECU will put points on the board, but South Carolina has had an entire week to reflect on their previous performance, and now earns a second week of practice against a less-talented version of A&M’s offense.

ECU’s offensive line is a big step down from the Aggies’, no doubt.  That ought to help SC get some traction on defense.  And it doesn’t hurt to face the same offensive system again.  But the poor fundamentals on display last week… I’m not sure you can clean all that up in nine days.

South Carolina is favored by 16.5.  I think the ‘Cocks cover, but I’m not sure they can hold ECU to 14 points.  In any event, I hope they don’t; any doubts on defense would be welcomed for game three.

**************************************************************************

UPDATE:  Lorenzo Ward announces new faces in the starting defensive eleven.

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Defense, for the win

I know Gurley was dazzling and I know Clemson lost some very good offensive talent, but here are the stats I take away from Saturday night that give me the most hope the Dawgs are headed in the right direction:

No opposing defense in 2013 held the Tigers to fewer yards (291), and only Florida State’s flame-throwing D held them to fewer yards per play (3.79).

If that’s not an opening game mirage, Pruitt has these kids so far ahead of schedule that I’m in a little bit of awe.

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Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!