Category Archives: Stats Geek!

The perception of Mark Richt, in charts

Marc Weiszer Chris White has an informative piece up comparing aspects of the career of Mark Richt versus those of Vince Dooley, Paul “Bear” Bryant, Nick Saban, Les Miles and Steve Spurrier.  And you know what?  For the most part, Richt comes off respectably in comparison.

He does look bad in record against top rival, but even in that area, he shows signs of turning that around, riding a three-game winning streak and playing the Gators even over the last eight games.

Then, there’s this:

Talk all you want about winning percentage and bowl games, but most fans will tell you all that matters at the end of the day is the ability to finish atop the heap. Bryant earned six tiles in this time, a feat matched only by Michigan’s Fielding H. Yost. Saban is the only other coach listed with more than one title, and Richt is the lone coach in this sample who doesn’t yet have a national championship on his record.

The difference between zero and one may not seem like much, but when it comes to winning national championships, it’s a big gap.

Bonus note – this doesn’t come from the AB-H piece, but it’s worth pointing out that Georgia remains in enviable company when it comes to road records.

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17 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

Wednesday morning buffet

Buffet away.

22 Comments

Filed under Bert... uh... Bret Bielema, Big 12 Football, Don't Mess With Lane Kiffin, ESPN Is The Devil, Fall and Rise of Bobby Petrino, Georgia Football, Nick Saban Rules, Phil Steele Makes My Eyes Water, SEC Football, Stats Geek!

“I’m sorry, Mike. I’m afraid I can’t do that.”

One reason I question how seriously the CFP selection committee takes all the trappings surrounding its mission is because I’m not sure the committee itself will take that stuff all too seriously.

Take, for example, the role statistical analysis will play in seeding the semi-final pool.

“The real difference is we are going to pick four teams and it is going to be done by human beings and not by computers,” said Tranghese.

The hope is to avoid some of the controversies that plagued the BCS during its reign over college football, some of which were caused by those pesky computers. For example, the split national titles for LSU and USC in 2003 and an undefeated Auburn team left out of the title picture a year later. And let’s not forget the 2007 LSU squad that won a championship despite suffering two losses during the season.

Blaming the final selections in those controversial years on computers is so much happy horse shit, of course.  (And it’s not like anyone’s quick to give the computers the credit for the years the BCS nailed the final two teams.) Computers are there to calculate the data that humans feed them.  It’s up to the latter to prevent garbage in, garbage out situations.

But anyway, it’s not like they’re locking the computers out of the selection room now.  Quite the contrary, there’s going to be a dizzying amount of data made available to committee members.  The issue is how much understanding of statistical analysis do they have to make useful decisions based on the information they will access.  Or, from the original Geek,

“The custom platform we built for selection committee was to their specifications and has approximately 100 million pieces of data, including those at the season, game, possession and play-by-play level,” SportSource co-founder Scott Prather said. “We put that into different tools that make it easy for the selection committee to compare and contrast teams.”

“We have statistics at every level of granularity,” Prather continued. “Using custom filters each committee member can determine the information important to them.”

Tranghese’s response manages to be both predictable and hilarious at the same time.

“I don’t think this is rocket science,” said Tranghese.

Yeah, there’s no reason to think it can’t work.

18 Comments

Filed under BCS/Playoffs, Stats Geek!

Monday morning buffet

A light nosh before SEC Media Days kicks off.

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Filed under Big Ten Football, Look For The Union Label, Recruiting, Science Marches Onward, SEC Football, Stats Geek!, The Blogosphere

Time in the system

Although the obvious thrust of this piece is Jacob Coker’s potential season as the starter at Alabama, there’s a little something in it that may bode well for Georgia’s chances with Mason:

Pete Roussel of CoachingSearch.com and 247Sports charted every starting quarterback who has led a team in that finished in the top 10 over the last five years, and found that only five quarterbacks during that time were in their first year in their respective offensive systems.

… Eight other quarterbacks were in their second year in a system. The majority had three or more years in a system — 11 had three, 10 had four and four even had five. That last number includes AJ McCarron last year although Doug Nussmeier replaced Jim McElwain as the Crimson Tide’s offensive coordinator between McCarron’s first and second seasons as a starter.

The upshot according to the chart: Teams with quarterbacks in their first or second years in a system are 20 percent less likely to finish in the top 10 than those with three or more years in the same system.

In that regard, Missouri and South Carolina are in the same boat as Georgia.  But that may be another statistical obstacle for Florida to overcome this season.

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Filed under Stats Geek!

Wednesday morning buffet

Need something to get over the World Cup elimination blues?  The buffet’s here for you.

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Filed under Academics? Academics., Because Nothing Sucks Like A Big Orange, Clemson: Auburn With A Lake, Stats Geek!, Strategery And Mechanics, The NCAA

Sunday morning buffet

Have some football.

  • Herschel Walker thinks the college football playoff format should be bigger than four teams to accommodate the SEC.
  • I heard a lot of talk from some of the NCAA’s witnesses at O’Bannon that paying players could harm the integration between them and the rest of the student body.  I wonder how they feel about this.
  • The arrests of seven athletes over a three-month span at Missouri led the athletic director to the conclusion that he doesn’t believe the spate of arrests was indicative of a cultural problem.  Isn’t that what they always think?
  • More academic speculation on what the Northwestern unionization effort might lead to.  Nobody knows, really.
  • Statistical comfort for Auburn:  Allowing big passing numbers is no indicator of a team’s success.  Except when it is:  “Four of the top five teams in the country in passing yardage — Florida State, Florida Atlantic, Michigan State and Louisville — held the top four spots in opponents’ passer rating, and they were the only four teams to hold teams under a 100 rating.”
  • If you’re interested in some inside ball, Shakin the Southland, which has been an excellent Clemson blog, has lost two of its major contributors.  Their story is here.
  • Auburn wants to do something about limiting opponents’ explosive plays, although if the problem really goes back to Tuberville’s time, I’m not sure why that really matters now.

5 Comments

Filed under Auburn's Cast of Thousands, BCS/Playoffs, Crime and Punishment, It's Just Bidness, Look For The Union Label, Stats Geek!, The Blogosphere

Friday morning buffet

Just because it’s June doesn’t mean I can’t fill a few chafing dishes for you.

  • I’ll go into detail later this summer about it, but perhaps this is the best thing Georgia’s secondary has going for it this season.
  • Bitcoin is going to sponsor a bowl game.  Will it hand out a virtual trophy?
  • The Supreme Court’s ruling in the Aereo case may impact how we watch the NFL, but keep in mind what’s written in this piece could also apply to CBS and its contract with the SEC.
  • Here’s the Post and Courier’s preview of the Clemson-Georgia game.  And here’s the preview of the South Carolina-Georgia game.
  • One reason the schools fear Jeffrey Kessler’s lawsuit:  one of the plaintiffs’ attorneys used to be an associate director of enforcement for the NCAA.
  • Believe it or not, ESPN preseason rankings have Georgia’s secondary as seventh best in the conference.
  • Gene Chizik predicts a 10-2 season for Auburn, with losses to South Carolina and Alabama.
  • Vanderbilt checks in at #74 in Paul Myerberg’s preseason roundup.
  • College coaches try to figure out the best way to utilize the new rules on summer supervision.  (Brian Kelly knows what to do, but if he told you, then he’d have to kill you.)
  • We’re guessing that many people would agree that college president or medical school dean is slightly more beneficial to humanity than being a football coach.”  Depends whom you ask, I suspect.
  • Bill Connelly looks at this year’s Clemson Tigers team and comes away impressed, particularly with that defensive line.

29 Comments

Filed under 'Cock Envy, Clemson: Auburn With A Lake, College Football, Gene Chizik Is The Chiznit, Georgia Football, It's Just Bidness, Media Punditry/Foibles, SEC Football, Stats Geek!, The NCAA

Golden Nugget likes Georgia.

The Golden Nugget has published lines on its 2014 college football games of the year.  Here’s where Georgia starts out:

  • Clemson, +9
  • South Carolina, -3
  • Tennessee, +17
  • Vanderbilt, +24
  • Missouri, +7
  • Arkansas, +14.5
  • Florida, +9
  • Auburn, +1
  • Georgia Tech, +14

One game as a dog, and that’s basically chalked up to home field advantage.  The other three games are Kentucky and two cupcakes, so if Georgia lives up to the lines, you’re looking at an 11-1 regular season there.  Takers?

Chase Stuart plugs all 200 games into his SRS formula to come up with a set of preliminary rankings, and spits Georgia out as a number seven.  (That leaves Georgia as the best team in the East, but only fourth best in the conference.)  I’d probably argue that’s a little low for a team that only loses once and beats Auburn, but what do I know?

Obviously, take this for what’s it’s worth, but if you think Vegas is pretty good making these kinds of assessments, well, then…

24 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!, What's Bet In Vegas Stays In Vegas

Friday morning buffet

Go get ‘em, Tiger.

22 Comments

Filed under 'Cock Envy, Auburn's Cast of Thousands, Gators, Gators..., Georgia Football, Georgia Tech Football, Recruiting, Stats Geek!, The Blogosphere