Category Archives: Stats Geek!

Wednesday morning buffet

Jump right in, peeps.

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Filed under Clemson: Auburn With A Lake, Georgia Football, Phil Steele Makes My Eyes Water, Recruiting, SEC Football, Stats Geek!, Strategery And Mechanics, What's Bet In Vegas Stays In Vegas

192.77

I really didn’t feel like taking the time to fisk this absurd post about Grantham because it was such obvious bullshit on its face, but Tyler brings the smack here, if you’re so inclined.

One thing in particular he writes bears repeating:  “On the most obvious of passing downs, Georgia allowed a staggering passer rating of 192.77, a full 25 points higher than Arkansas.”  That’s a stat I’ve taken note of before.

If that’s a situation Jeremy Pruitt can’t improve dramatically this season, then we’ve seriously overestimated the guy’s coaching prowess.

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Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

Wednesday morning buffet

Another day, another buffet line.

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Filed under 'Cock Envy, ACC Football, Clemson: Auburn With A Lake, Gators, Georgia Football, Political Wankery, SEC Football, Stats Geek!

“The Gators will forever receive the benefit of the doubt.”

Bill Connelly’s preview of Florida is an honest one, which means he isn’t projecting the Gators to Atlanta.

This is an odd time for Florida. Even in 2012, fan interest in Muschampball seemed to wane at times (it’s certainly not particularly pleasant to the eye), and in 2013, when injuries forced him to get creative to avoid disaster, he couldn’t do it. It’s hard to be too pessimistic about a program that was 11-2 just one full season ago, but it’s hard to be particularly optimistic about a team that looked as bad as Florida did for much of last year.

Thanks to recruiting and 2012, in the Football Outsiders Almanac 2014 the Gators get a faithful No. 30 projection, with a likely record of 7-5 (29 percent chance of 8-4 or better, 38 percent chance of 6-6 or worse). That’s as good a starting point as any for expectations, but the odds of another 2012 are small.

And that leads to the $64000 question for Boom.

And will 7-5 be enough to earn Muschamp a fifth year in Gainesville?

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Filed under Gators, Gators..., Stats Geek!

“Good luck figuring them out.”

That’s the last sentence in Bill Connelly’s intro to his 2014 Georgia preview, and, brother, do I know where he’s coming from.  Here’s the other part of that:

Georgia has incredible skill position talent, one of the best coordinator duos in the country, and a potentially dominant front seven. The Dawgs also have serious question marks at offensive line and defensive back.

That’s about it, plus a little something about special teams.  Well, that and health.

Todd Gurley missed three games. Keith Marshall missed eight. Chris Conley (noted “Star Wars” fan filmmaker) and Michael Bennett missed two. Jay Rome missed five. Justin Scott-Wesley missed eight. Malcolm Mitchell missed 12.9.

That Georgia lost all of these players at one time or another and then lost Murray with two games remaining was incredible. More incredible: Georgia still ranked eighth in Off. F/+ and fifth in Passing S&P+. I’ve said this many times by now, but offensive coordinator Mike Bobo is absurdly underrated. (So was Murray, really, but that’s another story.)

The upside of injuries is that Georgia returns three running backs (four including CB-turned-RB-turned-CB J.J. Green) and four wideouts who have served as go-to options at one point or another. If Mitchell, Conley, Bennett, and Scott-Wesley can all hit 100 percent health at the same time, then … well, never mind Hutson Mason, I’m pretty sure I could throw for 3,000 yards with that group.

Bill goes on to opine that Georgia has the highest ceiling of any team in the East… but.

… if every East team performs to its maximum capability, Georgia finishes a couple steps ahead of everybody else.

The skill-position players and front seven are just loaded with exciting, experienced athletes. But the other units are somewhere between question marks and outright detriments, which makes Georgia a pretty high-variance team.

Which is why he leans towards South Carolina as the team to win the East.  I can’t say I blame him.  But it’s gonna be a wild ride if the injury bug doesn’t bite like it did in 2013.

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Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

There’s lucky. There’s good. And there’s Auburn’s schedule.

As you might expect, Bill Connelly’s Auburn preview is a fun read (“You’ve got to be able to say this, Auburn fans: We were lucky as hell last year.“).  What you might not expect is how much weight is being given to Auburn’s schedule this season.

Let’s put it this way: Auburn travels to Manhattan, Kan., on a Thursday night on national television, to face a raucous crowd and a team that has specialized in slowing Baylor down more than most. And that’s perhaps Auburn’s fifth-hardest game in 2014.

Let’s put it another way: in this year’s Football Outsiders Almanac 2014, Auburn is projected ninth in the country, with the No. 6 offense; the Tigers’ projected record: 8-4. At ninth in the country. Auburn is given a five percent chance of matching or exceeding last season’s 11-1 mark and, again, at ninth in the country, a seven percent chance of finishing 6-6 or worse.

Well, dayum.  I don’t see Auburn finishing anywhere in the vicinity of scraping by with bowl eligibility.  Then again, Bill makes me wonder if the narrative about this year’s SEC West hinted at yesterday in my post about the Athlon article may have some legs.

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Filed under Auburn's Cast of Thousands, Stats Geek!

The perception of Mark Richt, in charts

Marc Weiszer Chris White has an informative piece up comparing aspects of the career of Mark Richt versus those of Vince Dooley, Paul “Bear” Bryant, Nick Saban, Les Miles and Steve Spurrier.  And you know what?  For the most part, Richt comes off respectably in comparison.

He does look bad in record against top rival, but even in that area, he shows signs of turning that around, riding a three-game winning streak and playing the Gators even over the last eight games.

Then, there’s this:

Talk all you want about winning percentage and bowl games, but most fans will tell you all that matters at the end of the day is the ability to finish atop the heap. Bryant earned six tiles in this time, a feat matched only by Michigan’s Fielding H. Yost. Saban is the only other coach listed with more than one title, and Richt is the lone coach in this sample who doesn’t yet have a national championship on his record.

The difference between zero and one may not seem like much, but when it comes to winning national championships, it’s a big gap.

Bonus note – this doesn’t come from the AB-H piece, but it’s worth pointing out that Georgia remains in enviable company when it comes to road records.

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Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

Wednesday morning buffet

Buffet away.

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Filed under Georgia Football, SEC Football, ESPN Is The Devil, Stats Geek!, Phil Steele Makes My Eyes Water, Big 12 Football, Don't Mess With Lane Kiffin, Nick Saban Rules, Fall and Rise of Bobby Petrino, Bert... uh... Bret Bielema

“I’m sorry, Mike. I’m afraid I can’t do that.”

One reason I question how seriously the CFP selection committee takes all the trappings surrounding its mission is because I’m not sure the committee itself will take that stuff all too seriously.

Take, for example, the role statistical analysis will play in seeding the semi-final pool.

“The real difference is we are going to pick four teams and it is going to be done by human beings and not by computers,” said Tranghese.

The hope is to avoid some of the controversies that plagued the BCS during its reign over college football, some of which were caused by those pesky computers. For example, the split national titles for LSU and USC in 2003 and an undefeated Auburn team left out of the title picture a year later. And let’s not forget the 2007 LSU squad that won a championship despite suffering two losses during the season.

Blaming the final selections in those controversial years on computers is so much happy horse shit, of course.  (And it’s not like anyone’s quick to give the computers the credit for the years the BCS nailed the final two teams.) Computers are there to calculate the data that humans feed them.  It’s up to the latter to prevent garbage in, garbage out situations.

But anyway, it’s not like they’re locking the computers out of the selection room now.  Quite the contrary, there’s going to be a dizzying amount of data made available to committee members.  The issue is how much understanding of statistical analysis do they have to make useful decisions based on the information they will access.  Or, from the original Geek,

“The custom platform we built for selection committee was to their specifications and has approximately 100 million pieces of data, including those at the season, game, possession and play-by-play level,” SportSource co-founder Scott Prather said. “We put that into different tools that make it easy for the selection committee to compare and contrast teams.”

“We have statistics at every level of granularity,” Prather continued. “Using custom filters each committee member can determine the information important to them.”

Tranghese’s response manages to be both predictable and hilarious at the same time.

“I don’t think this is rocket science,” said Tranghese.

Yeah, there’s no reason to think it can’t work.

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Filed under BCS/Playoffs, Stats Geek!

Monday morning buffet

A light nosh before SEC Media Days kicks off.

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Filed under Big Ten Football, Look For The Union Label, Recruiting, Science Marches Onward, SEC Football, Stats Geek!, The Blogosphere