… check out Bill Connelly’s post about offensive lines.
Category Archives: Stats Geek!
From Pete Roussel, a handy chart of SEC quarterbacks performances on third down:
Two things stand out there that may have some bearing on this Saturday: as long as he’s not throwing for the end zone, getting Mauk in third down situations is a win for the defense and getting Mason in third down situations is not easy.
Bill Connelly’s updated conference projections are here, and, yeah, Saturday’s game in Columbia looks like it’s kind of a big deal.
Another day, another buffet.
- Ole Miss has a fundraising campaign going to pay its SEC fine and for new goalposts.
- The next antitrust lawsuit over use of college athletes’ names and likenesses has been filed against nearly all of the national over-the-air and cable television networks that have significant live college sports programming; the five power conferences; and the nation’s two largest college-sports multi-media and marketing rights companies.
- Having to excuse subpar officiating in two conferences? Nobody said life would be easy, Steve Shaw.
- ESPN is confident it can spot the nation’s most deserving teams. (Mark May already knows that.)
- Can anything be sweeter than trolling a stupid Mike Bianchi column?
- What liberals get wrong about football.
- Another Georgia player keeps his cool in a downtown Athens bar.
Tyler does some more digging at cfbstats.com (I always love it when somebody else does the heavy lifting), and uses stats to paint a pretty accurate portrait of Georgia’s defense five games into the season.
Because when you look at the stats, there is nothing in them, besides the points per game, that make me freak out, and that isn’t terrible. We are thoroughly average.
And even the points per game are an improvement over last season.
… We are bend, but don’t break. Then we run out of field. Throw in the four rushing TDs we’ve given up, opponents are scoring touch downs on about one of every four plays from inside our red zone. This is reflected in our S&P defensive ratings being ranked 52nd.
Basically, this is VanGorder ball, without the All-American players. BVG’s defense worked, like all great defenses do, because it could consistently generate a four-man pass rush. That’s not something the current defense is capable of providing.
One last thing: we are abysmal, last in the nation, defending the pass when teams are 3rd and 4-6 yards. The line: 11-15, 9 of those for first downs, a 243.60 passer rating, and 5 of our 7 passing plays allowing 30+ yards. All other third down situations and we are average or better. Again, not sure what I can take away from that, but it is something to think about going forward when we see 3rd down and 5.
I think everyone can visualize what’s happening in those situations. The rush can’t get to the quarterback and there’s probably an ILB in pass coverage.
I don’t want to make this sound overly bleak. It’s not. In fact, you can make a good argument that the stats show Georgia is making the best it can out of its talent. Pruitt’s philosophy makes sense in context. And that context is (1) Georgia is scoring points at a high clip; (2) Georgia is being extremely careful holding on to the football; and (3) while punting average is mediocre, Georgia’s punt coverage is outstanding.
What that indicates is Mark Richt’s team is doing a fantastic job managing field position. That’s a sign of good coaching.
But it’s also a sign of how narrow the margins are for Georgia. Tennessee was close because the Dawgs didn’t have much of a field position advantage throughout the game (consider what they did when Tennessee was pushed back on its side of the field, though). Georgia enjoyed advantages in field position and turnover margin in Columbia, but inconsistent defensive play, a questionable holding call that reversed a Gurley touchdown and two missed field goals combined for a close loss.
The formula is there for winning ball. It’s just a matter of whether the Dawgs can hold it together enough when it matters.
Seth Emerson thoughtfully saved me the trouble of pouring through cfbstats.com. As you might expect, statistically, Georgia is something of a mixed bag. But there are some numbers that should be grounds for some degree of optimism.
- “On the strength of Gurley’s running, Georgia ranks sixth in the nation in scoring offense, at 45 points per game.” That’s good for second in the conference and less than three points behind Texas A&M.
- “While Hutson Mason’s passing yardage is anemic (he has yet to hit the 200-yard mark), he is 45th nationally, and sixth in the SEC, in pass efficiency rating.” Some of that is a function of Mason not throwing too many interceptions.
- “Georgia has committed the least turnovers in the SEC, with four. Well, that’s tied for the least in the SEC, with Missouri. Something to keep in mind for this weekend.” See above, plus the running backs have been pretty sure handed.
- “Here’s a surprisingly strong stat for Georgia’s defense: It ranks 12th in the nation (tied with Clemson) in third-down defense, stopping opponents 29.3 percent of the time.” That’s a big change from last season.
And, in the first note about this week’s game, here are the key stats for Missouri:
Missouri’s vital numbers: 76th in total offense, at 400 yards per game; 76th in passing offense (222 ypg); 57th in rushing offense (179 ypg); 57th in run defense (144.6 ypg); 66th in pass defense (236.4 ypg).