Category Archives: Stats Geek!

Friday morning buffet

Just because it’s June doesn’t mean I can’t fill a few chafing dishes for you.

  • I’ll go into detail later this summer about it, but perhaps this is the best thing Georgia’s secondary has going for it this season.
  • Bitcoin is going to sponsor a bowl game.  Will it hand out a virtual trophy?
  • The Supreme Court’s ruling in the Aereo case may impact how we watch the NFL, but keep in mind what’s written in this piece could also apply to CBS and its contract with the SEC.
  • Here’s the Post and Courier’s preview of the Clemson-Georgia game.  And here’s the preview of the South Carolina-Georgia game.
  • One reason the schools fear Jeffrey Kessler’s lawsuit:  one of the plaintiffs’ attorneys used to be an associate director of enforcement for the NCAA.
  • Believe it or not, ESPN preseason rankings have Georgia’s secondary as seventh best in the conference.
  • Gene Chizik predicts a 10-2 season for Auburn, with losses to South Carolina and Alabama.
  • Vanderbilt checks in at #74 in Paul Myerberg’s preseason roundup.
  • College coaches try to figure out the best way to utilize the new rules on summer supervision.  (Brian Kelly knows what to do, but if he told you, then he’d have to kill you.)
  • We’re guessing that many people would agree that college president or medical school dean is slightly more beneficial to humanity than being a football coach.”  Depends whom you ask, I suspect.
  • Bill Connelly looks at this year’s Clemson Tigers team and comes away impressed, particularly with that defensive line.
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Filed under 'Cock Envy, Clemson: Auburn With A Lake, College Football, Gene Chizik Is The Chiznit, Georgia Football, It's Just Bidness, Media Punditry/Foibles, SEC Football, Stats Geek!, The NCAA

Golden Nugget likes Georgia.

The Golden Nugget has published lines on its 2014 college football games of the year.  Here’s where Georgia starts out:

  • Clemson, +9
  • South Carolina, -3
  • Tennessee, +17
  • Vanderbilt, +24
  • Missouri, +7
  • Arkansas, +14.5
  • Florida, +9
  • Auburn, +1
  • Georgia Tech, +14

One game as a dog, and that’s basically chalked up to home field advantage.  The other three games are Kentucky and two cupcakes, so if Georgia lives up to the lines, you’re looking at an 11-1 regular season there.  Takers?

Chase Stuart plugs all 200 games into his SRS formula to come up with a set of preliminary rankings, and spits Georgia out as a number seven.  (That leaves Georgia as the best team in the East, but only fourth best in the conference.)  I’d probably argue that’s a little low for a team that only loses once and beats Auburn, but what do I know?

Obviously, take this for what’s it’s worth, but if you think Vegas is pretty good making these kinds of assessments, well, then…

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Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!, What's Bet In Vegas Stays In Vegas

Friday morning buffet

Go get ‘em, Tiger.

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Filed under 'Cock Envy, Auburn's Cast of Thousands, Gators, Gators..., Georgia Football, Georgia Tech Football, Recruiting, Stats Geek!, The Blogosphere

How Georgia rides “that big hoss.”

To read much of the national media, you’d think Todd Gurley has struggled with injuries throughout his Georgia career.  That’s not entirely accurate, but you can tell Mark Richt is sensitive to that perception when he discusses how he’ll use Gurley in the running game this season.

“So are we gonna give it to (Gurley) 30 times a game and wear him to a nub, no. But there may be a game or two where he’s feeling in, and we’ve got momentum, and he’s pounding, we’re gonna let him pound. But Douglas pounds pretty good too. Keith Marshall can hit a home run at any moment. So we’ll use all those guys.”

The thing is, that’s not really a departure from how he’s been deployed so far.  Looking at Gurley’s career rushing stats, here’s how his number of carries per game breaks down (he was out three games last season):

  • Less than 10:  3
  • 10-19:  13
  • 20-29:  7
  • 30 or more:  1

As those numbers indicate, Keith Marshall’s made it pretty easy for Richt and Bobo to manage Gurley’s workload.  With Chubb and Michel being added to the mix this season, there’s no reason to think that won’t continue.

Interestingly, there is one area of Gurley’s workload that’s increased dramatically.  He has 53 career receptions.  26 of those came in his last four games.  (Ten versus Auburn.)  I don’t know whether Richt counts that as part of the pounding or not.

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Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

Friday morning buffet

Enjoy the morning’s offerings.

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Filed under Academics? Academics., Because Nothing Sucks Like A Big Orange, Clemson: Auburn With A Lake, Georgia Football, Georgia Tech Football, It's Just Bidness, Phil Steele Makes My Eyes Water, SEC Football, Stats Geek!

Fun with numbers – Georgia’s 2013 offense

At his site, College Football by the Numbers, Scott Albrecht’s done some stat crunching I found of interest.

You’ll find a table here that breaks down a bunch of offensive information per possession.  Here’s the story on Georgia:

  • 16th nationally in points per possession
  • 17th nationally in plays per possession
  • 13th nationally in yards per possession
  • 86th nationally in starting field position
  • 25th nationally in touchdowns per possession
  • 8th nationally in field goals per possession
  • 78th nationally in possessions per game
  • 61st nationally in points per red zone trip

Basically, outside the red zone, this was an offense that was quite effective when the rest of the team managed to stay out of its way.  The problem was, as indicated by the starting field position and possessions per game stats, that didn’t happen as much as it needed to.

The most impressive part of that, of course, is how much Georgia was able to do on offense despite all the injuries.  With the walking wounded hopefully returning to full strength, it lends support to the argument that the most important part of Hutson Mason’s role this season is to be a good game manager.  Now if something can be done about that whole rest of the team staying out of the offense’s way thing…

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Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

Fun with numbers, ESPN-style

Before we get all wrapped up in that “Murray Deficit” ESPN’s stats department cooked up, it’s worth noting that any outfit coming up with a statistical model that ranks Georgia’s preseason defense higher than its offense and shows the Dawgs’ special teams as the 18th best in the country might want to go back and refine the model a little more.

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Filed under ESPN Is The Devil, Georgia Football, Stats Geek!