Now this is an interesting approach to analyzing the SEC’s 2007 season:
Methodology: What I did was try to see what each team’s record was against the line for the past 5-years. For example, in the first week, LSU travels to Starkville to play Mississippi St. Obviously the betting lines aren’t out, but I’m going to try and guess who will be the favorite. In this particular example, I think it’s a safe assumption that LSU will be favored. In the past 5-years, LSU is 12-1 on the road when in conference when they are favored, while Mississippi State is 2-15 in conference when they’ve been the dog at home. It’s fairly crude, but we’re talking projections here baby! It ain’t rocket science! Therefore in this example, I’d predict LSU to win the game.
He’s got Georgia rolling to an 11-1 (7-1) year. Needless to say, I’ll take it. Here’s his basic analysis:
Georgia gets a couple of tricky games upfront against Oklahoma State & South Carolina, but both are at home and I’m figuring Georgia to be favored in both. Georgia is 12-0 the last 5 years against non-conference teams in which they are favored giving them the edge over the Cowboys and they are 13-4 as favorites in home conference games while South Carolina is 4-10 when they are a dog on the road in conference. That sets up Georgia well at 2-0 to start the year. Week 4 is very tricky as Georgia travels to Alabama. I think both teams will be 3-0, but the win over South Carolina is big and Georgia plays Oklahoma State as a non-conference opponent early on while Bama takes on Western Carolina. If Georgia is the favorite, they are 12-1 in conference road games they are favored in while Alabama is 1-6 in home dog conference games. From that point on, Georgia has pretty smooth sailing. They do travel to Knoxville to take on Tennessee, but I think the Vols are 2-2 heading into that game and will be the underdog at home. [All emphasis added.]
In essence, to have these trends hold up, Georgia needs to get off to a good start in the first two games. Lose one or both, and all bets are off. So to speak…
(h/t College Football Resource)