I think preseason polls are useless. There’s no real world data to base the rankings on. At best, the voters can only hope to extrapolate from what they see carry over from the previous season, which is a risky presumption in college football.
There’s a variation on this theme that’s almost as worthless. It’s to take the results from the first week of the season and blow their significance up all out of proportion. Thus, we get treated to articles and posts about issues that six or seven weeks from now are going to look fairly ridiculous in retrospect.
Sunday Morning Quarterback highlights one such idiocy: run for your lives! It’s a 1-AA team coming! Aieee!
“Anybody can beat anybody.” Actually, coach, they almost never can:
Statistically, over the last five years, BCS conference teams beat I-AA teams at more than a 95 percent clip; in well over 200 BCS vs. I-AA games in that span, the I-AA team has won eight times.
Well, I’m on the edge of my seat for that Georgia Tech-Samford battle now.
There’s a reason Appy State is getting so much attention this week. What it did is basically off the charts freakish. You have to disengage from reality to suggest that events like that are likely to become even remotely common.
As another example of this, you’ve got all sorts of folks jumping back on the “hey, the Pac-10 really is a tough conference, take that, Les Miles!” bandwagon after Cal’s impressive win over Tennessee – how ’bout that DeSean Jackson! – led by folks like head conference cheerleader HeismanPundit. (In his defense, HP never jumped off said bandwagon.)
Here’s what HP had to say about what the win means:
Still waiting to read the stories about how the SEC is soft, slow, dumb, or whatever over-generalization applies to Tennessee’s 45-31 loss to Cal.
Last year, Cal’s loss to the Vols–like every Pac-10 loss to an out-of-conference team–was touted as a sure-fire sign that the Pac-10 was not only weak, but that the SEC was far-and-away the best conference in the land.
Naturally, when the Pac-10 wins a game like this, it is quickly forgotten, deleted from memory, glossed over or tossed away for more important matters.
The silence is deafening.
Can we at least wait and see how a portion of the season plays out before anointing the conference? There’s plenty of opportunities approaching to build a resume.
By the way, it’s not like this helps make the case for the Pac-10, either. Let’s not forget that one of OSU’s wins last year was against Southern Cal.