Daily Archives: November 13, 2007

Live by the sword, die by the sword.

Going into this season, I was skeptical that Kentucky was emerging as an elite SEC program. The Wildcats’ defense was porous in ’06 and didn’t look to be substantially improved in ’07.

The key to UK’s success last year was turnover margin. Kentucky was the nation’s second ranked team in that area in ’06, at +15. That was a margin considerably outside of its historical performance.

In the absence of what would be an unlikely repeat in that area, I doubted that UK would be able to improve significantly upon its 2006 won/loss record. And in fact for this season, the Wildcats are -2 in turnover margin, which is more in line with their historical numbers.

Looking back, Kentucky finished September 5-0 and was +7 in turnover margin. The wheels came off the wagon in October: a 1-3 record – the win being that memorable OT game with LSU – and a -9 in turnover margin. (UK was +1 in TO margin against LSU.)

cfbstats.com has the splits for UK in turnover margin here. They’re pretty dramatic. UK is significantly worse on the road, against conference opponents, against teams with winning records… and in games it loses.

Needless to say, Georgia can’t let Kentucky win the turnover battle.

In case you’re interested, Georgia’s splits in TO margin aren’t as large as UK’s. But make sure you check out the month to month trend line at the bottom of the chart.



Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

We’re all sensitive people.

Evidently hurt feelings over something trivial at a football game aren’t confined to the South.

Missouri players were enraged by a highlight video.

What’s next?

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Filed under General Idiocy

Journalistic whiplash

I’ve been waiting for Paul Finebaum’s take on Saban and Tuberville after last weekend’s showing for both.

It’s out, and to no great surprise, it’s another 180 degree turn from what he was writing just a couple of weeks ago… which pretty much puts him back where he was a couple of months ago.

He’s gonna hurt himself with these abrupt turns if he’s not careful.

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Filed under Media Punditry/Foibles, SEC Football

Tale of the tape

If Goldilocks were a college football fan, she’d love the Georgia Bulldogs, statistically speaking, at least.

Check out the ranking summary from the NCAA stats site:

119 teams ranked in Division Football Bowl Subdivision
12 teams ranked in Southeastern Conference
Category National
Actual National
Actual Conf
Southeastern Conference
Rushing Offense 38 174.30 Navy 357.20 4 Arkansas 297.00
Passing Offense 73 209.10 Texas Tech 480.64 8 Kentucky 268.70
Total Offense 68 383.40 Texas Tech 542.82 7 LSU 455.30
Scoring Offense 32 32.80 Hawaii 50.22 6 Florida 41.30
Rushing Defense 33 126.90 Oregon St. 62.10 5 LSU 66.00
Pass Efficiency Defense 55 122.80 LSU 92.62 9 LSU 92.62
Total Defense 25 328.40 LSU 236.80 4 LSU 236.80
Scoring Defense 32 22.20 Ohio St. 11.36 4 LSU 16.70
Net Punting 18 37.91 Auburn 39.70 2 Auburn 39.70
Punt Returns 16 13.82 Kansas St. 22.06 3 Alabama 17.45
Kickoff Returns 52 22.00 Kansas 30.19 7 Tennessee 25.07
Turnover Margin 34 .50 Kansas 2.00 4 LSU 1.30
Pass Defense 27 201.50 Rutgers 153.20 8 South Carolina 163.27
Passing Efficiency 39 132.42 Oklahoma 179.95 5 Florida 175.57
Sacks 41 2.40 Georgia Tech 4.30 3 LSU 3.10
Tackles For Loss 43 6.60 Georgia Tech 9.50 4 LSU 7.10
Sacks Allowed 15 1.20 Tennessee .30 4 Tennessee .30

Get it?  Not too hot, not too cold…

Georgia doesn’t lead the SEC in a single statistical category, but is only in the bottom fourth of the conference in one category (pass efficiency defense).  Nationally, it’s the same story:  the punting game is in the top 15% of the country, and the worst statistical showing is 73rd (passing offense).

You’d hope that Goldie would take note of that national ranking in sacks allowed, though.  It’s probably churlish of me to point this out, but LSU currently ranks 79th in that category.  I’m certainly appreciative of Les Miles wanting to go in another direction at offensive line coach after last season.  I imagine Mark Richt is even more so.

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Filed under Georgia Football