Can’t get no respect.

The Wizard of Odds discusses an interesting set of statistics about how the 119 schools in D-1 did against the spread this year.

What’s so interesting about it? Well, as the Wiz explains,

… Pointspreads are actually a barometer of how the betting public perceives a team. As money rolls in for/against a team, the pointspread is adjusted. The aim of a sportsbook is to have a 50-50 split of wagers for/against a team because it eliminates risk and guarantees a profit from the 10% commission charged by a sportsbook for its services.

So as a general rule, the better a team’s record is against the spread, the less respect the betting public has for it. Kansas, which went 10-1 against the spread this year, is the Rodney Dangerfield of college football.  Of course, the inverse of that would be schools that do poorly against the spread are overrated by the bettors.

Dawg fans, note that Georgia went 7-4 ATS in ’07. Hawaii was 4-6.

Make sure you check out which school finished 118th.

3 Comments

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3 responses to “Can’t get no respect.

  1. My first guess was LSU.

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  2. SonuvaDawg

    You wrote: “So as a general rule, the better a team’s record is against the spread, the less respect the betting public has for it.”

    Shouldn’t that be the other way around or am I missing something?

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  3. Sonuva, look at this over time, instead of just one game. For a team to keep beating the spread like Kansas did means that the betting public didn’t push the line out as far as it should have, game after game. In other words, the team was consistently better than the bettors believed it was.

    If such a team gained more respect as the season progressed, the lines would get larger and presumably at some point in time if that happened, the team wouldn’t keep covering.

    Like I said, look at who finished next to last ATS. Do you think that for the most part ‘Bama was overrated or underrated this year?

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