Building a wall around the state: more thoughts on Georgia and NFL draft talent

I posted yesterday about how Georgia’s current success on the field wasn’t reflected in the numbers of NFL draft-worthy Dawgs over the past couple of years. Over at USA Today, you can find an article that takes a look at where NFL draft picks have come from over the past 20 NFL drafts (h/t Eleven Warriors). In certain respects, the numbers are a bit surprising.

Look at these two charts:

CRUNCHING THE NUMBERS

Colleges sending most players to NFL School Players Miami (Fla.) 136 Florida State 125 Tennessee 120 Ohio State 116 Notre Dame 115 Nebraska 112 Florida 107 Southern California 99 Penn State 95 Michigan 91 States sending most players to NFL from high schools State Players California 699 Texas 568 Florida 541 Georgia 281 Ohio 231 Louisiana 225 Pennsylvania 171 Virginia 165 Alabama 164 North Carolina 160

If I’m reading that correctly, the state of Georgia ranks fourth overall among states in producing NFL draft picks over the past 20 years, but the Georgia football program doesn’t rank in the top 10 schools that delivered that talent to the NFL. This despite the facts that Georgia Tech’s recruiting posture has largely been supine over this period of time and that Georgia has been led by three head coaches who all have had the reputation of being first rate recruiters.

Compare those numbers with Tennessee, which ranks third on the list of schools. And note that Miami, FSU and Florida all made the top ten list. (Miami also led all colleges with an incredible 41 first round draft picks over that period.)

That’s not the whole story, though. There’s an interactive map you can play with where you can refine the parameters on where (and when) the talent comes from. If you reset the time period to the Richt era (2001-2007), the state of Georgia still ranks fourth in talent production, behind the same three states, with 93 players drafted. During that period – which obviously includes some kids that Donnan signed and developed to some extent – 43 players from the Georgia program were selected in the NFL draft.

That number ranks fourth among all colleges. Here’s the top ten list for 2001-7:

• Miami (54)
• Ohio State (53)
• Florida State (44)
• Georgia (43)
• Tennessee (41)
• Florida (40)
• Notre Dame (36)
• Southern California (35)
• LSU (34)
• Virginia Tech (33)

Consider two things about those numbers. One, Georgia has obviously fared much better against its peers this decade in recruiting and developing top talent than it had previously. Two, as Eleven Warriors’ Jason noted, there’s a clear demographic shift in play. Only two schools outside of the Sunbelt (the region, not the conference) appear in the top ten on the more recent list, a significant drop from the composition of the 20 year list where half the schools came from outside the Sunbelt.

Bottom line? Expect carpetbagging to remain alive and well as schools from outside of the South come in to the region to chase top talent as the numbers decline in their home regions. In other words, recruiting won’t get any easier for Richt and Garner.