I’ve been waiting for Las Vegas Sports Consultants to throw out its first preseason poll. It’s been published today and here’s what it looks like:
|
LVSC Rank |
Team |
Rating |
Final LVSC 2007 Rank |
Notes |
|
1 |
Southern Cal |
112.9 |
1 |
Will O-line be ready for Buckeyes. |
|
2 |
Ohio State |
111.2 |
6 |
Sept 13th at USC will be their biggest test. |
|
3 |
Oklahoma |
109.7 |
5 |
Playing their A-game each week will lead them to Jan 8th. |
|
4 |
Missouri |
109.5 |
7 |
Everyone knows the offense, however the D could be special. |
|
5 |
Florida |
109.4 |
8 |
Can anyone stop the Gators offense??? |
|
6 |
West Virginia |
108.6 |
3 |
Offense dominates again. D- Coorindinator Casteel retained. |
|
7 |
Georgia |
108.5 |
4 |
Suspensions may hurt cohesion later in season. |
|
8 |
Texas |
107.4 |
11 |
A top 10 offense, their weakness is in the secondary. |
|
9 |
Texas Tech |
107.0 |
15 |
At long last stability at QB in Lubbock. D also solid. |
|
10 |
Clemson |
106.8 |
15 |
Needs to avoid annual hiccup, but are loaded at skill positions. |
|
11 |
Brigham Young |
105.5 |
13 |
Cougars capable of big year and BCS appearance. |
|
12 |
Kansas |
105.3 |
9 |
Jayhawks will not sneak up on anyone. Great Linebackers! |
|
13 |
Penn State |
104.9 |
18 |
Lions quietly have won 9+ L3Y. Lost 2 DT to susp. |
|
14 |
South Carolina |
104.2 |
NR |
Spurrier’s D is loaded with 3rd yr starters. QB controversy??? |
|
15 |
LSU |
104.1 |
2 |
Reloads on a yearly basis. Quarterback a big question mark. |
|
16 |
Oregon |
104.0 |
NR |
QB Roper fits O-Coorindinator Kelly’s offense. Solid all around. |
|
17 |
Texas Christian |
103.8 |
NR |
Attention AP Voters!!! TCU 30-8 last 3 yrs & getting better. |
|
18 |
Auburn |
103.7 |
25 |
Brutal SEC schedule plus a trip to West Virginia. |
|
19 |
South Florida |
103.6 |
27 |
If QB Grothe stays healthy, Bulls have a chance at the BCS. |
|
20 |
Wisconsin |
103.1 |
20 |
Badgers always play to the level opposition. |
|
21 |
California |
102.7 |
24 |
Well coached. Reloading on offense. Moving to 3-4 on D! |
|
21 |
Virginia Tech |
102.7 |
10 |
Hokies looking for playmakers on both sides of the ball. |
|
21 |
Tennessee |
102.7 |
17 |
New up-tempo offense will take time to learn. |
|
24 |
Arizona |
101.6 |
20 |
New offense has been a roaring success. Tuitama will go wild. |
|
25 |
Cincinnati |
100.9 |
19 |
HC Brian Kelly was a great hire. New QB must fit system. |
|
26 |
Rutgers |
100.5 |
NR |
Rice is gone, however Schiano is still a Jersey Boy… |
|
27 |
Arizona State |
100.4 |
20 |
O-Line must improve. QB Carpenter back for senior year. |
|
28 |
Oklahoma State |
100.1 |
NR |
New season same story. Solid offense – weak defense. |
|
29 |
Boston College |
100.0 |
14 |
Too many losses on Offense. D will be even stingier. |
|
30 |
Oregon State |
99.9 |
20 |
HC Riley is 7-0 in bowls games. 4-0 as HC and 3-0 as OC. |
Georgia at #7 doesn’t bother me nearly as much as South Carolina at #14, one spot ahead of LSU. Make sure you read the comments for each school. All I can figure is that somebody smells a sucker or two in the Columbia faithful. Put your money down!
In general, it looks like Vegas is more down on the SEC than the AP voters and coaches are. And awfully high on the Big XII.
Get The Picture 
In Vegas terms, that might equal a decent set of odds for the Dawgs. In realistic terms, it’s more of a “we don’t think you can do it” type attitude, but if I were one to bet on the Dawgs, I’d throw down $50 to see if I could make $250 or $300.
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Georgia is currently trading 2nd highest at the TradeSports market at 14%. USC is highest at around 20%. Florida and OSU around 11%, Oklahoma around 10%.
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https://www.tradesports.com/aav2/trading/tradingHTML.jsp?evID=82385&eventSelect=82385&updateList=true&showExpired=false
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South Carolina scares the shit out of me.
A healthy defense is going to be trouble.
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DS – I don’t see a QB at this juncture. The running backs don’t look particularly strong, either.
As for the linebackers, I watched a replay of the ’06 South Carolina-Florida game last night. Mullen kept running a play (five or six times that I saw) where he brought Harvin out of the backfield and across the middle for a pass and got him isolated on Brinkley. The play worked every time. Brinkley simply couldn’t keep up.
I think the ‘Cocks are going to have a tough time keeping their base LBs in games against spread teams.
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I watched the replay of that game as well, Blutarsky… but I think SC did a pretty good job of shutting UF down. 17 points.
I’m not worried about the SC game though. Last year’s loss is understandable given how inexperienced we were on both sides of the ball as well as at offensive coordinator. 20 points will win this game for us this year. 10 might even be enough. SC will have a hard time scoring, imho.
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Last year was a weird season for the Gamecocks in a lot of ways — usually they start off sluggish but get into a rhythm later on in the season and pull off some nice wins; last year they started off great but then completely imploded down the stretch.
I see this year’s team as kind of splitting the difference between those two — the defense returns enough talent to be ready to go from week 1, but the offense is going to need time to gel, particularly if the Wheel O’ Quarterbacks spins as fast as it looks like it’s going to. Which means it looks like Georgia’s in for another grueling, grind-it-out defensive struggle that they have to win by a score of 20-16 or something, but it’s not like we haven’t been in that situation before with these guys.
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TD, Florida was in a stretch then when the offense wasn’t getting much done. Georgia’s defense held the Gators’ offense to 14 points and 319 yards two weeks before. Vandy only gave up 330 yards the week before the SC game.
Anyway you look at it, Mullen had Brinkley’s lunch on the pass play any time he wanted it. Jasper’s not fast enough to stay with an RB on that kind of play (and keep in mind that what we saw took place before the knee injury), so unless the SC d-line is getting to the QB fast enough, it’ll be there all year for SC’s opponents.
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Doug,
Georgia will win by at least 15 points. The game won’t be that close.
You seem to be assuming this Georgia team will be comparable to other Georgia teams this decade. It won’t be. Watch.
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“TD, Florida was in a stretch then when the offense wasn’t getting much done. Georgia’s defense held the Gators’ offense to 14 points and 319 yards two weeks before. Vandy only gave up 330 yards the week before the SC game.”
@Blutarsky:
I know. That doesn’t really mean Florida’s offense had its way with SC. That one play might have worked a few times, but it wasn’t anything particularly damaging to Florida either.
I think Georgia will have SCs LBs running all over the field and struggling all day. (Like I say, the game won’t be close… conventional wisdom (sigh…) about UGA/SC games notwithstanding.) I’m just saying I don’t think the UF/SC ’06 game really showed us much about how to put points/yards on SC.
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…damaging to SC, I should say.
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Can anyone be stopped by the Gators defense???
(Sorry, couldn’t help myself.)
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Looking back, how strange was that 18-0 win in 2006?
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Strangely AWESOME, D.N., strangely awesome.
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@ Will, 2:11 pm:
Well done.
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“I think the ‘Cocks are going to have a tough time keeping their base LBs in games against spread teams.”
We arent a spread team (you obviously know that).
The reason we always have a tough time with the Cocks is because that team has no depth but an excellent starting defense. They crumbled last year because once they started losing guys, that defense went from great to…well, we all saw what McFadden did. After the loss last year, i thought they had the best defense in the SEC. And i still believe that at the time they did.
If we come out of there with a win, it isnt going to be by much. 17-9.
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Let me add, that my most feared games of this season are:
1. South Cackalaka
2. Gaytors
3. War Eagles
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Agree with Texas Dawg and Senator here. I have a great deal of respect for the SC defense (it’s demise is the only reason they fell to 6-6 last year), but it cannot overcome the field position the offense will put them in all day along against UGA. It may work in other tough games, but not on September 13.
I have known SOS for many years and I have never see him so frustrated with his offense. It is a total mess and will be exposed by the best UGA defense Spurrier has ever faced. Dawgs by 14+ in Revenge Game #1. Vegas is way off on this call.
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I just want everyone to know that I picked South Carolina as my most underated SEC team in today’s O&BHue roundtable BEFORE I had seen their high ranking in the LVSC poll. So if they do well I want all the credit I deserve. If they tank we’ll bury this whole matter under the rug and pretend it didn’t happen.
I swear.
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Perhaps the Big12 Bias has a little to do with the location of Las Vegas. You’re going to get support for USC as well as the Big12 fanbase in that region. Maybe homer dollars drive pricing.
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We arent a spread team (you obviously know that).
Well, in the sense that Stafford isn’t a true running threat, that’s so. But Georgia runs plenty of three and four receiver sets, and will throw to a back out of ’em.
Don’t forget that Brinkley is a 270 pound LB coming back from knee surgery and that Norwood is a 260 LB playing the position for the first time in college.
I think these guys can be exploited with the pass, but we’ll see what the ‘Cock defense comes up with.
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Vegas odds always favor West-Coast teams, because more west-coast fans take weekend trips to Vegas and decide “Hey, Southern Cal’s going to win the National Title! I’m going to go blow $50.”
I pay very little attention to Vegas odds because of this inherent bias. As an example: UCLA at #37 in the same poll. Really? A team with no quarterback and offensive line….37th?
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While I agree we can exploit their backers, I am still a little worried about our WR’s against their corners.
They shut us down last year. We couldnt do jackshit. Our best bet is, what you previously stated, getting knowshon matched up with one of those big run stopping linebackers.
And guys, lets remember, BLAKE MITCHELL beat us last year. BLAKE freaking MITCHELL.
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If you’ll recall, what should have been the most explosive play on offense in last year’s SC game occurred when Moreno was wide open on the wheel route. He was open because the LB failed to get over and cover him. If Stafford had thrown the long ball as well in that game as he did later in the year, that would have been six points – and a win.
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yep
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